Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

[Raz]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

The gold market is now speculative like the stock market. If the stock market moves down I expect the metals market to follow. The bull market is far from over and we can't draw lines in the sand, only take new positions if/as it moves down.

With the Fed couterfeiting hundreds of billions of Bonars everything has become speculative. Real estate is being kept at artificially high levels even today because the market is not being allowed to reach clearing prices in most locations. But, there is a BIG difference between the equity market and gold. Stocks are having a rally within a bear market, or we are in another Cyclical Bull within the ongoing Secular Bear Market that began in March of 2000.

Gold is and remains in a Secular Bull Market and this is likely to continue for another three years.


In price comparison to the S&P 500 this chart puts it in perspective.

[santafe2]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

Gold is and remains in a Secular Bull Market and this is likely to continue for another three years.

I agree with that. I'm only saying that it's my opinion that metals will trend down if the stock market trends down - and - I think the stock market will trend down. It is, in my opinion, a good time to lighten up on metals.

[Raz]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I agree with that. I'm only saying that it's my opinion that metals will trend down if the stock market trends down - and - I think the stock market will trend down. It is, in my opinion, a good time to lighten up on metals.

I would think that everyone would agree with your second sentence.
The best chart technician I know would also agree; check out the most recent post in the thread "Gold Market Research".

I'm not sure that gold will fall the same in percentage terms that it did last Fall when the margin clerks were liquidating hedge funds. But yes, it is certain to trade lower if the S&P 500 takes a real hit. In my earlier post I should have said "If gold makes a weekly close below $800.00 then the bull market in gold is O-V-E-R".


PS. I thought I was on your Ignore list. :confused:

[icm63]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

Originally Posted by metalman

even the genius trader who traded perfectly only once per yr since 2001... net transaction costs... lost to buy & hold gold since 2001.

What complete bull dung...:confused:

Many traders made 100% + every year, gold does 10 to 20 %...

[ASH]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I agree with that. I'm only saying that it's my opinion that metals will trend down if the stock market trends down - and - I think the stock market will trend down. It is, in my opinion, a good time to lighten up on metals.

I put in trailing stop loss orders on half my 'paper' metal position a few weeks ago, on this theory. Even though I'm in the 'hold gold until I see signs of fiscal and monetary responsibility' camp, I do think that another stock market crash might be tradeable. Of course, being so overweight metals, selling half at the beginning of a dip would still leave me with a 40% insurance policy in any case.

[kartius919]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

So how do I ignore someone? I can't find the link.

[metalman]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

Yes, it all depends on where you start. I like to start at $140 gold in 1974 as a "fair price" given the previous "fix" at $35 for over 40 years of generally moderate inflation. That would also work out to about a 4% annual rate of inflation, a pretty safe bet.

Using CPI, which arguably understates inflation by at least 1%, and the "inflation calculator" at www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi, I come up with a fair price today of a little less than $600 an oz. If inflation was really a little greater, as many suggest (see shadowstats.com), you can easily get to $800 to $1,000 an oz.

In short, gold appears fully valued here, plus or minus 10%-15%. But you don't value your home insurance policy by the premiums you pay. You value it for the protection it provides against financial collapse. That is what gold provides and, therefore, it is not at all a mystery why buyers seeking such insurance during an unprecedented financial crisis will pay a higher premium, just as people in New Orleans pay a higher insurance premium for flood insurance today.

In short, gold is measuring the fear, not the certainty, of future inflation and/or financial collapse.

read...
iTulip.com Gold Myths Cheat Sheet - iTulip.com

every explanation imaginable about why gold is rising and will fall any day now has been noted and responded to here on itulip for 10 yrs...

[metalman]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

So how do I ignore someone? I can't find the link.

click on link of poster

select 'view public profile'

click on User Lists

select 'add to ignore list'

[Slimprofits]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

But yes, it is certain to trade lower if the S&P 500 takes a real hit. In my earlier post I should have said "If gold makes a weekly close below $800.00 [/COLOR]then the bull market in gold is O-V-E-R".


PS. I thought I was on your Ignore list. :confused:

I'd say there is probably a 0% chance of medium to long-term gold bulls allowing it to trade below $900 at any time in the near future. So when you say if it goes to $800, the bull market is dead, I assume you're talking about the recession or any kind of global currency issues to have passed. Five years down the road? Ten?

When the USDX traded up to $77 and oil traded down to WTI $65-66 on 9/24 and 9/25, just two months ago, gold saw a MASSIVE (sarcasm) move down from $1010 down to $990 and traded at that amount for four long days. The days of $800 have long since passed. Anyone waiting for that correction should have instead taken a dive head first into oil on 9/25.

[icm63]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I'd say there is probably a 0% chance of medium to long-term gold bulls allowing it to trade below $900 at any time in the near future.

:mad:WARNING:confused: WARNING :pWARNING:eek:

Newbie alert !!!

GOLD is a commodity, all commodities have an underlying characteristic for volatility. If you scan commodity charts over the last 100 years, 50% pullbacks are NOTHING !!!

If oil can go from $150 to $30, Gold can be just as much of Bit*h !

[Raz]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

I'd say there is probably a 0% chance of medium to long-term gold bulls allowing it to trade below $900 at any time in the near future. So when you say if it goes to $800, the bull market is dead, I assume you're talking about the recession or any kind of global currency issues to have passed. Five years down the road? Ten? ...

The call I just made is based on Classic chart analysis, Gann's squaring of price and time,
with a tiny smattering of Elliott thrown in for seasoning.
In other words, my call is purely technical in nature.

You may assume that the Fed and the bankster criminals who own and operate the Fed and the Treasury have lost control of interest rates at both ends of the yield curve if we see a weekly close below $800.00 in spot gold. However, in such a case gold may just as easily go to $8,000.00/oz. as Sub $800. (They would certainly have the help of the 535 hookers who work the Capital building as well.:mad

In such a case we would be looking at ... dare I say it:eek: ... DEFLATION and/or TOTAL systemic collapse.

As for five years out - I wouldn't presume to make such a call even if I were really smart.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

No one else told you as early as I did that John McCain had no chance to win the election in 2008. Everyone else ignored the betting lines, the election results from 2006, the election results during prior recessions and thought the 2008 polling data couldn't be counted on. In the case of the latter, they believed what Faux News was selling.

No one else said that oil would rise to $70 - $80 over the course of the summer of 2009. Everyone else was worried about contango.

No one else said anything about $66 oil on 09/25 being a great short-term window of opportunity.

I may be a loudmouth, but I call them as I see them and occasionally get them right.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

If oil can go from $150 to $30, Gold can be just as much of Bit*h !

You talk about oil going from $150 to $30 as if it happened in a vacuum.

[metalman]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

You talk about oil going from $150 to $30 as if it happened in a vacuum.

as i recall, it happened during the most extreme panic out of leveraged crap in history.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Milton Friedman: Explosion of monetary base NOT inflationary.

as i recall, it happened during the most extreme panic out of leveraged crap in history.

Yes that's what I was getting at.