1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

[GRG55]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Who could have known...:rolleyes:

Housing Recovery in U.S. Set Back to 2010 as Market Wanes

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- A recovery in U.S. housing will have to wait at least until next year...

...“I don’t think the housing crisis is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, said in a telephone interview. “I think we’re going to see another leg down.”...

[Slimprofits]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Who could have known...:rolleyes:

Housing Recovery in U.S. Set Back to 2010 as Market Wanes

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- A recovery in U.S. housing will have to wait at least until next year...

...“I don’t think the housing crisis is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, said in a telephone interview. “I think we’re going to see another leg down.”...

Mark Zandi, chief of agit-prop with Moody's Economy.com

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...2&postcount=31

May 08, 2009

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's is operating from the same list of talking points as Kudlow and Cramer, quoted 5 minutes ago on CNBC:

"This (jobs report out in 20 minutes) will be the last really bad economic statistic in this downturn."

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...13&postcount=9

May 30, 2009

Mark Zandi from Moody's says the decline of home prices will end in the fourth quarter.

[metalman]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Mark Zandi, chief of agit-prop with Moody's Economy.com

via goggle images...

janszen on housing since 2002...



janszen 2007...



ass. press aug. 2009...



janszen aug. 2009...



janszen long range projection...

[jpatter666]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Sigh....the eternal dilemma for us. We've a decent townhouse in the DC area which we nearly own (only a few years on the note and we could pay it now if we wanted).

Strangely, the DC area (inner suburbs) was *not* hit so hard by the housing crash. The outer suburbs got slammed, and some high-end, but the mid-tier, not so much. Two of my neighbors sold recently for prices just 10% below the highs.

We also live in Reston, which is having the DC metro extended to in in 2013. We'll be within walking distance.

I've thought about selling the house and renting, but rents (even here) would be above our mortgage and where we'd like to live, 2-3X (!) for a similar place.

So, I wonder about having lots of our net worth tied into a place that is likely to depreciate, but on the other hand, I am looking forward to the financial freedom (in ways) of having greatly reduced shelter costs in the near future. You've always got to have some place to live and this gives us a final line of retreat if needed.

But I do sit up nights wondering...gack!

[goadam1]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

via goggle images...

janszen on housing since 2002...



janszen 2007...



ass. press aug. 2009...



janszen aug. 2009...



janszen long range projection...

I think we have doubted a little too little how hard the government would press to keep asset prices up.

But:

Zillow says my apartment is back to 2007 prices.

And then there is this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/bu...ment&st=Search
SAN FRANCISCO — In January, Mike Rowland was so broke that he had to raid his retirement savings to move here from Boston.


From left to right, Jordan Kurland, Mike Rowland and Michael Bedar, in front of the building they bought in San Francisco for nearly a million dollars, with help from the Federal Housing Administration.
A week ago, he and a couple of buddies bought a two-unit apartment building for nearly a million dollars. They had only a little cash to bring to the table but, with the federal government insuring the transaction, a large down payment was not necessary.

“It was kind of crazy we could get this big a loan,” said Mr. Rowland, 27. “If a government official came out here, I would slap him a high-five.”

In its efforts to prop up a shattered housing market, the government is greatly extending its traditional support of real estate, including guaranteeing the mortgages of middle-class and even upper-class buyers against default.

In 2007, the government did not insure a single mortgage in this city, one of the most expensive in the country. Buyers here, as well as in Manhattan, Santa Monica and every other wealthy area, were presumed to be able to handle the steep prices and correspondingly hefty down payments on their own.

[GRG55]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Sigh....the eternal dilemma for us. We've a decent townhouse in the DC area which we nearly own (only a few years on the note and we could pay it now if we wanted).

Strangely, the DC area (inner suburbs) was *not* hit so hard by the housing crash. The outer suburbs got slammed, and some high-end, but the mid-tier, not so much. Two of my neighbors sold recently for prices just 10% below the highs.

We also live in Reston, which is having the DC metro extended to in in 2013. We'll be within walking distance.

I've thought about selling the house and renting, but rents (even here) would be above our mortgage and where we'd like to live, 2-3X (!) for a similar place.

So, I wonder about having lots of our net worth tied into a place that is likely to depreciate, but on the other hand, I am looking forward to the financial freedom (in ways) of having greatly reduced shelter costs in the near future. You've always got to have some place to live and this gives us a final line of retreat if needed.

But I do sit up nights wondering...gack!

As long as you treat it like a home and not an "investment" there's no need to sit up nights. You are not overlevered, which is what is killing most "homeowners".

Also you are in a serious "government town" which is not immune from the economic cycles, but is buffered in comparison with other cities.

Plus, if you have been there a while, there's intangible value in knowing your neighbours & having a settled routine to deal with day-to-day matters [believe me, this was the most difficult part for my wife and I on returning home after a number of years living abroad].

[grapejelly]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

I live in the DC area in the US and I sold my house in 2005 and rent now. I am far better off because I got my FIRE economy winnings and left the casino.

Renting is a much better deal for me because the costs of ownership do not reward owners at the prices of real estate even now.

For instance, a home of average quality in DC area can cost $600,000, and when you factor in significant upkeep and taxes and insurance, it is a bargain to rent that house for, say, $3000 or $3500 per month. If you are self employed you may take a home office deduction and although you won't shelter as much tax as you would with the mortgage interest deduction, considering everything it is still a good deal to rent.

It is nice to own a place for a sense of stability, but the flipside is that renting lets you move and have a more flexible lifestyle, or lower your costs if you experience financial setbacks.

[Raz]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Correct even EJ has admitted he underestimated the amount of pumping the government would do. Here in NY the Bonuses are coming this year. This money created by the government given to the banks to survive is now going to hit the system through employee compensation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/business/18wall.html

$112 billion dollars worth and counting. This money will be spent invested or otherwise circulated. It will multiply. The money is already is being spent in anticipation. Its hard to get a reservation in some restaraunts again. Condos are moving. Art is moving. Bars are fuller. I do not think EJ is wrong about the bounce I just think he might have underestimated the duration. Thats why I think we are 12-24 months away from the second leg down. I think this money stabilizes the lower prices for a while and when the liquidity drains and interest rates are raised from these levels prices will begin to be unaffordable again and you get your second leg.

I was fortunate enough to buy a chunk of oil stocks last November, and I bought a few others like Nucor.
I also bought more gold and a little platinum, but not nearly as much as I should.

I've learned that I grossly underestimated the criminality of the rat-scum who run the Fed and the Treasury.
The failure to see that in 2008 has left me with more cash than I'm comfortable with.

[Jay]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

I live in the DC area in the US and I sold my house in 2005 and rent now. I am far better off because I got my FIRE economy winnings and left the casino.

Renting is a much better deal for me because the costs of ownership do not reward owners at the prices of real estate even now.

For instance, a home of average quality in DC area can cost $600,000, and when you factor in significant upkeep and taxes and insurance, it is a bargain to rent that house for, say, $3000 or $3500 per month. If you are self employed you may take a home office deduction and although you won't shelter as much tax as you would with the mortgage interest deduction, considering everything it is still a good deal to rent.

It is nice to own a place for a sense of stability, but the flipside is that renting lets you move and have a more flexible lifestyle, or lower your costs if you experience financial setbacks.

Yeah, but where do you bury it? ;)

[touchring]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

Correct even EJ has admitted he underestimated the amount of pumping the government would do. Here in NY the Bonuses are coming this year. This money created by the government given to the banks to survive is now going to hit the system through employee compensation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/business/18wall.html

I think EJ and Prechter might have underestimated the ability of the Chinese to kick start the fire economy. Over the last 1 year, the Chinese pumped in $1 trillion (real money) into infrastructure and goods spending. This trickled down throughout East Asia and natural resource exporters and helped lift confidence.

[Jay]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

I think EJ and Prechter might have underestimated the ability of the Chinese to kick start the fire economy. Over the last 1 year, the Chinese pumped in $1 trillion (real money) into infrastructure and goods spending. This trickled down throughout East Asia and natural resource exporters and helped lift confidence.

There is no way that a mountain of Chinese government directed bubble money will help the real economy more than hurt it.

[jbm3996]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

The only comment I can make at this time about your comment about Rush is that our "democratic" system is not working and no party, either Democrats, Republicans, or Independents, can make a difference. Our corrupt and inept system is like an oil tanker that cannot turn around and is heading to the rocky shore. We are headed for the shore and a great mess as the oil will leak out like the Exxon Valdez! I am not saying noone should not make an effort to make a difference; it is that I am rather pessimistic that we are not heading for an even greater depression and much heartache... much more than there is now. I wish you the best.

I understand your despair about our economy especially since this in now Nov, 24th, just 5 days since this news post was started and housing defaults have gone from 1 in 7 to 1 in 4 .... IN ONLY 5 DAYS! .. and this is before the next wave of ARM resets and post holiday credit defaults.
Whenever I think there is nothing I can do about this depression, I remember the thousands of troops overseas who are doing their duty and putting their lives on the line everyday so that this country will survive. This makes me realize it is like-wise the duty of people comfortably living in this country to do all we can to make sure these brave men and women have not sacrificed in vain while we remained over here in comfort. I study, and research, and pray every day in hopes that I can figure out how to attack our current economic crisis, and I encourage everyone to do the same. For motivation, I try to imagine how insurmountable it must have seemed for the founders of this country to have challenged and fought against the mighty English forces. When you truly understand what the founders were up against and the meager resources they had to accomplish their goal, I feel ashamed to be overwhelmed by our current challenges. God speed to us all.

[MulaMan]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

I agree real estate will not bottom until 2012 earliest, because of option arm resets.

I do not agree that our military policing the world has anything at all to do with America's survival as a country and that the founding fathers would be horrified to see Americans dying simply to protect international corporate interests.

The current American corporatism and military that protects it would have looked very familiar to our founding fathers and reminded them of the empire which they fought against!

I believe it is completely un-American to equate empire building with some patriotic duty - that is complete flag-waving rubish.

America was not built by flag-wavers but was built on ideas.

In my opinion, both the Federal Reserve and the US Military needs to be put out of business if America is ever to return to the original and radical "idea" of individual freedom and liberty.

My hope is that this Thanksgiving, Americans drop the patriotic flag waving, pick up book, and focus on ideas.

[karim0028]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

My hope is that this Thanksgiving, Americans drop the patriotic flag waving, pick up book, and focus on ideas.

I have a "dream" as well... Good luck with that dream The only thing an average american picks up is girls and burgers.... Books... Its like asking to see god.....

[Jay]

Re: 1 in 7 home loans are in forecloser or default

For there to be real change it is essential to first understand how our monetary system works and what the ensuing and inevitable inflation that must follow in a system like that means. Fiat is why we have fought so many wars. The link between fiat debt based money, central banking and war must be understood by the populace first. This ignorance is why people feel confused, isolated, and it is also why they are pressured to make decisions that go against their morals. They have no choice because they are poor and have no skills that are in demand and are in debt up to their eyeballs. There is also little hope for wage inflation to keep up with commodity prices; we are left with a society that has to get lucky speculating to survive, or is even forced into crime. That type of society has little to keep the community fabric together except force.