Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

[peakishmael]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Do you actually buy that shzt? That Stimulus 1 is only just beginning? That only a small amount has been spent and most of the money is sitting there waiting to be deployed on really good stuff yet to be defined?

It's all nonsense...a good story to try to deflect criticism of the rising umemployment rate that's now way above what the Administration promised on the record. A good story to try to spin the foreign lenders that the US fiscal situation isn't completely out of control.

Stimulus 1 is gone...all of it. No politician ever authorizes big spending and then hoards the money. Do you seriously think any of them are going back to their umemployed constituents and saying "Oh just wait. Most of the money is sitting in my desk drawer back in D.C. I'll trickle it out to you next year".

Can understand why you might think that, GRG, but you're wrong on this one.

As a financial manager on the front lines of a Federal agency (NASA HQ), I can confirm that most of the Stimulus 1 money is NOT spent yet. There are a long list of reasons, which might be summarized as political and administrative SNAFU, but "hoarding by politicians" is not among them.

You might not believe the unique documentation requirements that have been imposed on the use of these funds, as opposed to "regular" appropriations. Of NASA's $1.002B of Stimulus 1 funding, only about $555M has been awarded on contracts and grants, only about $150M of work has been completed, and only $83M has been disbursed (i.e., payments made by the Treasury). This data is as of yesterday.

The government-wide average is similar. You can investigate more at http://www.recovery.gov

Those of us on the front lines could see this train wreck coming as soon as the stimulus was passed. Conflicting goals of speedy implementation vs. need for excruciatingly detailed documentation and transparent low-level reporting via web, while approval processes and requirements are evolving on-the-fly. I knew we were REALLY in trouble when I had my first meeting with Inspector General auditors, WEEKS BEFORE WE ACTUALLY HAD ANY STIMULUS FUNDS AVAILABLE IN THE AGENCY'S FINANCIAL SYSTEM.

[GRG55]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Can understand why you might think that, GRG, but you're wrong on this one.

As a financial manager on the front lines of a Federal agency (NASA HQ), I can confirm that most of the Stimulus 1 money is NOT spent yet. There are a long list of reasons, which might be summarized as political and administrative SNAFU, but "hoarding by politicians" is not among them.

You might not believe the unique documentation requirements that have been imposed on the use of these funds, as opposed to "regular" appropriations. Of NASA's $1.002B of Stimulus 1 funding, only about $555M has been awarded on contracts and grants, only about $150M of work has been completed, and only $83M has been disbursed (i.e., payments made by the Treasury). This data is as of yesterday.

The government-wide average is similar. You can investigate more at http://www.recovery.gov

Those of us on the front lines could see this train wreck coming as soon as the stimulus was passed. Conflicting goals of speedy implementation vs. need for excruciatingly detailed documentation and transparent low-level reporting via web, while approval processes and requirements are evolving on-the-fly. I knew we were REALLY in trouble when I had my first meeting with Inspector General auditors, WEEKS BEFORE WE ACTUALLY HAD ANY STIMULUS FUNDS AVAILABLE IN THE AGENCY'S FINANCIAL SYSTEM.

Let's see $83 mill out of $1.002 B is about 8%. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was passed into law by the President in mid-February. No wonder the unemployment rate blew past the magic ten.

Things in the USA have clearly deteriorated to a much greater degree than I could have imagined...even the government's ability to spend copiously has somehow badly deteriorated...:rolleyes:

Thanks for straightening me out with some front-line information. Always much valued! But seriously, what I don't understand is why Congress isn't playing reindeer games to get the unspent funds reallocated to their pet projects, immediately.

Only one seat in the US House of Representatives is not up for re-election in 2010. Their constituents are losing their jobs, their homes, and their families...and only a tiny amount of the primary aid package for Main Street has actually been paid out more than 9 months after the legislation was authorized? Isn't that the real scandal? How do they explain this to their constituents...that they are waiting for the Jobs Summit?

Edit added: One other thing that comes to mind...if so little of the stimulus has been distributed, doesn't that have some bearing on iTulip's view that the peak of the constructive stimulus effects occurred in 3rd Q 2009?

[GRG55]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Let's see $83 mill out of $1.002 B is about 8%. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was passed into law by the President in mid-February. No wonder the unemployment rate blew past the magic ten.

Things in the USA have clearly deteriorated to a much greater degree than I could have imagined...even the government's ability to spend copiously has somehow badly deteriorated...:rolleyes:

Thanks for straightening me out with some front-line information. Always much valued! But seriously, what I don't understand is why Congress isn't playing reindeer games to get the unspent funds reallocated to their pet projects, immediately.

Only one seat in the US House of Representatives is not up for re-election in 2010. Their constituents are losing their jobs, their homes, and their families...and only a tiny amount of the primary aid package for Main Street has actually been paid out more than 9 months after the legislation was authorized? Isn't that the real scandal? How do they explain this to their constituents...that they are waiting for the Jobs Summit?

Edit added: One other thing that comes to mind...if so little of the stimulus has been distributed, doesn't that have some bearing on iTulip's view that the peak of the constructive stimulus effects occurred in 3rd Q 2009?

Some of the allocations seem to be getting spent fairly rapidly...

U.S. stimulus funds run out for lower SBA loan fees

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Small Business Administration said on Tuesday that supplemental economic stimulus funds for its two most popular loan programs have run out and new loan volumes could fall if funds are not extended.

The SBA said $375 million in Recovery Act funds for use in 7(a) and 504 loan programs were exhausted by Monday, leaving thousands of struggling but viable small businesses in limbo unless new resources can be found...

[peakishmael]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Let's see $83 mill out of $1.002 B is about 8%. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was passed into law by the President in mid-February. No wonder the unemployment rate blew past the magic ten....

Edit added: One other thing that comes to mind...if so little of the stimulus has been distributed, doesn't that have some bearing on iTulip's view that the peak of the constructive stimulus effects occurred in 3rd Q 2009?

According to the column chart on the recovery.gov home page, about $233B, or about 30%, out of $787B has been "paid out" (disbursed from Treasury) as of November 20. So that's definitely better than NASA's performance so far... more on that in a moment.

Not sure how it affects iTulip's view. Even if the funds haven't been "paid out", I suppose that the bulk of the jobs may have already been created/saved, as recipients either have the funds in hand or are anticipating them. But I'm just guessing.

[peakishmael]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Some of the allocations seem to be getting spent fairly rapidly...

U.S. stimulus funds run out for lower SBA loan fees

Good example. If you look at the column graph on the recovery.gov home page, you can see that Entitlements are spending faster than either Tax Benefits, or Contracts, Grants & Loans. You can imagine why: an Entitlement program like SBA can just reduce fees on new loans, without putting into place a bunch of new regs or processes. NASA work is almost exclusively contracts, and in that case the Congress and Administration have expressed clear preferences for

1) new contracts, as opposed to added funding for existing contracts
2) the use of fixed price contracts wherever possible (but these are rarely used in an R&D environment)
3) excruciatingly detailed documentation, as I've already mentioned

all of which slows us down, relatively.

[goadam1]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

tptb lost control in 2008 and will again.

24 shopping days until Xmas. Only 30 more for me to have to eat crow.

[goadam1]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Looks pretty good for me getting. I think I'll have caviar, not crow for New Years dinner.

[FRED]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Come on market makers are already thinking sun valley or Anguilla. Second level money managers are looking to paint the tape and are buying on any dip so they don't miss out. What's going to crash it? Bad black friday? Who is putting out honest numbers on that one. One day soon we will see the market down 2% at 10 and down 20% by 1. But when and at from what level? S&P 1200 dropping to 950?

If I'm wrong then I am ready.

Our concern is the scale of events. We may be thinking too small.

[jk]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Our concern is the scale of events. We may be thinking too small.

are you guys going doomer now? because if so, i'm really going to get scared. or is this just a joke? [since i did laugh out loud.]

[goadam1]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Our concern is the scale of events. We may be thinking too small.

I'm going to "enhance" my mind and watch that thing a couple of times.

That is freakin' cool.

Are you suggesting that I go out and have a good time this weekend with my money? Do it while I can!

[GRG55]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Our concern is the scale of events. We may be thinking too small.

Nice slide show! The only thing missing is the little "pointer bubble" showing "You Are Here"...;)

[goadam1]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Nice slide show! The only thing missing is the little "pointer bubble" showing "You Are Here"...;)

You mean a little pointer saying, "You are insignificant."

[peakishmael]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

Our concern is the scale of events. We may be thinking too small.

are you guys going doomer now? because if so, i'm really going to get scared. or is this just a joke? [since i did laugh out loud.]

Jeez yes, I wish FRED would answer your question. I mean, I fight my doomer tendencies all the time. I read jtabeb on the COMEX gold situation and thought cripes, that sure sounds like a trigger. Now FRED posts this. I don't know if I'm glad he did, or not. I'm probably gonna crap my pjs in my sleep tonight.

I laughed at the star sequence, but was a litle disappointed that it didn't continue to zoom out to galactic, inter-galactic, and universal scales... ;)

[WildspitzE]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

That is freakin' cool.

It is. Wow!

I'm waiting for someone to make a joke about Uranus.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Meredith Whitney Stays Dark

are you guys going doomer now?

itulip commune. somewhere in montana. time to grow a beard.