Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Reflation for the time being has worked. Use the drops to buy good value, precious metals, real estate you can afford.

NO S&P 600 in 2009. If you told me a year ago we would have plus 10% unemployment but 1100 S&P I would have laughed. But to deny the power of devaluation and reflation is stupid. You can't borrow to riches if the music stops but many are pretty clever at leverage. Plus, even if with each dip you we all get poorer, by not playing the nominal number change you get creamed.

So any guess when iTulip will announce a backtrack?

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Reflation for the time being has worked. Use the drops to buy good value, precious metals, real estate you can afford.

NO S&P 600 in 2009. If you told me a year ago we would have plus 10% unemployment but 1100 S&P I would have laughed. But to deny the power of devaluation and reflation is stupid. You can't borrow to riches if the music stops but many are pretty clever at leverage. Plus, even if with each dip you we all get poorer, by not playing the nominal number change you get creamed.

So any guess when iTulip will announce a backtrack?

Marc Faber got nasty reviews when he backtracked too fast.

[jbm3996]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

I am busy. Advertising is a bubble fire economy business. We are experiencing a classic reflationary bubble. Zillow says my apartment is back to 2007 levels. I'm tempted to cash out but where would I put the money.

I was just at a school cocktail party. Lots of Wizards of Wall Street. Not GS level, but close to it. They all think this philosophy is for pussies. You should be leveraged for inflation regardless of your the stress of paying off a debt stream. You should enjoy and milk the bubbles. No irony. If you talk about the paper economy disconnecting from the productive economy, then you are just an asshole who like others before who called for the end of the world. Don't even start with them about unemployment or depleting of resources. Etc...

I repeatedly run into people similar to the types you describe above, "wizards" I believe you call them (interesting description). I always thought wizards were supposed to be exceptionally intelligent people of remarkable insight and depth of character ... not exactly how I would describe the "Wall Streeters" of the last ten years ... Not sure how these "Wizards" justify their actions in their minds, but it appears from your description above that they feel anyone who questions their reckless (over leveraged) behavior is either an "asshole" or is a "dooms dayer". Interesting .. I beleve this was described in my masters program as antisocial sociopathic behavior ... but I guess if the behavior of these wizards makes them rich, then that makes their behavior okay.... right goadam1?

[jbm3996]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Are you ever around these douche bags? Horrible! And now after re-flation they are so full of it.

...encouraged by your above comment ...

When ever I have to deal with people like these "douche bags", I always maintain composure by recalling what the father said to his son in the introduction of The Great Gatsby, " ... always remember, not everyone is born with a sense of the fundamental decencies of life".

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

I'm sure Pretcher can't sleep, he has been shouting down down down, it just refuse to come down. Will it come down?

Maybe if Israel slams Iran nuke plants.

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

So any guess when iTulip will announce a backtrack?

Marc Faber got nasty reviews when he backtracked too fast.

Still no backpedaling?

[Chomsky]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Still no backpedaling?

EJ gave a mea culpa in his latest:

Before we get into the scenarios, a mea culpa on the bad market call: a 20% to 30% S&P correction before the end of the year.

In retrospect, I should have stuck to the original DJIA Debt Deflation Bear Market re-inflation rally target of 10,000 made in Jan. 2008, rather than trying to second-guess myself later. Readers have learned that I am not good at short-term market forecasts. I hope to make 2010 the year I learn that, too.

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

EJ gave a mea culpa in his latest:

Thanks for posting that.

VIX has dropped to lows not seen since May 2008.
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

China has started tightening, perhaps the correction is now in sight!

China had been the wildcard that had thrown off so many projections. It will be interesting to see what happens in the months ahead.

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Correction coming soon. Chinese headsman in action. Axe in full swing.

[jpatter666]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Correction coming soon. Chinese headsman in action. Axe in full swing.

Maybe, but as we learned the hard way before, just Shanghai, or Hong Kong as well?

[touchring]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Maybe, but as we learned the hard way before, just Shanghai, or Hong Kong as well?

The Chinese axe is blunt, and many Chinese speculators got incredibly thick necks, so it may need to hit a few times before the head goes off.

[shiny!]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

My personal art-market anecdote: business has been rekindled at my place of employment. Six- and seven-figure sales have gone down the past 6 weeks.

When is the best time to sell art if one wants to raise cash for other investments? Is this a good time, or would it be better to wait until ...?

[Chomsky]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

When is the best time to sell art if one wants to raise cash for other investments? Is this a good time, or would it be better to wait until ...?

The winter is, by far, the busiest time of the year for us. It is the season with the most art fairs, which bring people from all over the world to New York. The summer is the worst.

[shiny!]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

The winter is, by far, the busiest time of the year for us. It is the season with the most art fairs, which bring people from all over the world to New York. The summer is the worst.

Thanks, Chomsky, but what I'm wondering is if it's better to sell now during deflation/low inflation (according to the CPI), or when inflation is rising, or has topped, or ...? Will art work as a good inflation hedge in the next years or decade, or is it better to sell it now and put the cash into PM's?

I have no clue how to sell a painting, except to a gallery that would only pay me half of what it's worth.

[jpatter666]

Re: Stocks up. Art market back. R/E next? No SP500 crash

Thanks, Chomsky, but what I'm wondering is if it's better to sell now during deflation/low inflation (according to the CPI), or when inflation is rising, or has topped, or ...? Will art work as a good inflation hedge in the next years or decade, or is it better to sell it now and put the cash into PM's?

I have no clue how to sell a painting, except to a gallery that would only pay me half of what it's worth.

I'd be curious as to your opinion as well. My wife and I collected (and still collect) art from all over the world for years. From what little I've seen the market can have *huge* swings depending on what's currently in vogue.

I'm not sure I'd keep art for investment purposes. We only buy what we love -- if it appreciates, that's cool, but not essential.