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  • The ignored bubble

    Wrote this in August of 2008, figured I would throw this out and see what folks with more knowledge than I thought of it.

    The ignored bubble

    It amazes me that pretty much NOBODY is talking about this. This industry is very hush hush and the ones that profit from it dont go around flashing their bling bling. It is the high-tech security and surveillance economy. This industry thrives in a World in continual wars and terrorism. Wars and terrorism=profits for them. Peace puts them out of business.
    Israel was one of the economies most hit by the dot-com bubble crash. So what did they do? The government encouraged tech companies to branch out into surveillance and security. New startups companies specializing in data mining, surveillance cameras, terrorist profiling and all sorts of high tech security gadgets.
    GUESS WHAT HAPPEND AFTER 9/11, 2001?
    WHAMMO, a new opportunity! The Israel economy exploded with a new found market. Homeland security and War on Terror boom.
    Of course Isreal had the perfect marketing.
    Our high tech firms and spy companies can show you how to fight the evildoers! We have been fighting terrorist forever! We are the go to guys for antiterrorism technologies!
    The War on Terror industry saved Israel's tech/dot.com bust economy.
    Airports, FBI, stadiums, police departments, electricity companies, departments of defense, and the list goes on and on for the new industry. After 9/11, governments around the world were desperate for terrorist huntn gadgets. And they all flocked to Israel for solutions.
    This industry needs terrorist, violence, criminals, disasters, and wars like a fish needs water!
    I could go on and on. But my point is, where does this industry end? Surveillence cameras in every corner of every town in the world? Biometric id cards and checkpoints? Behavioral pattern recognition? Mining your phone calls and emails? Spying on employees while they sneak a smoke in the bathroom? Xray machines and medal detectors at all schools, Walmarts, and parks? Gated communities built like castles with private police forces to keep the poor folk out?
    High tech fences and security barriers dividing people, communities, and countries?
    This industry does not fear war or terrorism. The industry sees it as a new opportunity!
    In essense, a world in endless wars is a perfect recipe for this industry. Turning whole countries, cities, communities into fortresses. Protected by high tech gadgets provided by these companies. A fortified gated community(Green Zones) surrounded by poor folk in the Red Zone.
    Naomi Klein puts it best in her book, The Shock Doctrine.
    This is what a society looks like when it has lost its economic incentive for peace and is heavily invested in fighting and profiting from an endless and unwinnable War on Terror.
    THE PRESENT....
    Now Iraq is pretty much how these nuts want it. They have it all walled up and fortified. Have private police forces guarding key resources like Oil. Time to move on to Afghanistan and Eastern Europe!
    This is one bubble I PRAY TO GOD to pop. If this industry keeps pushing this crap on the Russians doorstep or back home in the United States, Britain, or any sane country, things are going to get really really ugly. Even in China, people will start to revolt against the constant EYEBALL, Big BROTHER, Control your every thought and movement crap.
    But will people say enough is enough? What if another terrorist attack happens? What if Eastern Europe fear the Russians are going to attack them? Will the people of the world give up more freedoms, if the fear is great enough? Ask yourself, what did we do after 9/11?
    This industry is evil pure and simple. It was not devised by the hand of God. This bubble MUST be popped soon or we all lose.
    There are almost 200,000 private contractors in Iraq now. Where will they go next? Georgia? Ukraine? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Or maybe back to the United States to control us? And we the taxpayer pay for this insanity.
    This is a tapeworm that is going to destroy us, if we do not do sumthing about it fast.

    People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both."
    --Benjamin Franklin

  • #2
    Re: The ignored bubble

    Originally posted by Crazyfingers View Post
    Wrote this in August of 2008, figured I would throw this out and see what folks with more knowledge than I thought of it.

    The ignored bubble

    It amazes me that pretty much NOBODY is talking about this. This industry is very hush hush and the ones that profit from it dont go around flashing their bling bling. It is the high-tech security and surveillance economy. This industry thrives in a World in continual wars and terrorism. Wars and terrorism=profits for them. Peace puts them out of business.
    Israel was one of the economies most hit by the dot-com bubble crash. So what did they do? The government encouraged tech companies to branch out into surveillance and security. New startups companies specializing in data mining, surveillance cameras, terrorist profiling and all sorts of high tech security gadgets.
    GUESS WHAT HAPPEND AFTER 9/11, 2001?
    WHAMMO, a new opportunity! The Israel economy exploded with a new found market. Homeland security and War on Terror boom.
    Of course Isreal had the perfect marketing.
    Our high tech firms and spy companies can show you how to fight the evildoers! We have been fighting terrorist forever! We are the go to guys for antiterrorism technologies!
    The War on Terror industry saved Israel's tech/dot.com bust economy.
    Airports, FBI, stadiums, police departments, electricity companies, departments of defense, and the list goes on and on for the new industry. After 9/11, governments around the world were desperate for terrorist huntn gadgets. And they all flocked to Israel for solutions.
    This industry needs terrorist, violence, criminals, disasters, and wars like a fish needs water!
    I could go on and on. But my point is, where does this industry end? Surveillence cameras in every corner of every town in the world? Biometric id cards and checkpoints? Behavioral pattern recognition? Mining your phone calls and emails? Spying on employees while they sneak a smoke in the bathroom? Xray machines and medal detectors at all schools, Walmarts, and parks? Gated communities built like castles with private police forces to keep the poor folk out?
    High tech fences and security barriers dividing people, communities, and countries?
    This industry does not fear war or terrorism. The industry sees it as a new opportunity!
    In essense, a world in endless wars is a perfect recipe for this industry. Turning whole countries, cities, communities into fortresses. Protected by high tech gadgets provided by these companies. A fortified gated community(Green Zones) surrounded by poor folk in the Red Zone.
    Naomi Klein puts it best in her book, The Shock Doctrine.
    This is what a society looks like when it has lost its economic incentive for peace and is heavily invested in fighting and profiting from an endless and unwinnable War on Terror.
    THE PRESENT....
    Now Iraq is pretty much how these nuts want it. They have it all walled up and fortified. Have private police forces guarding key resources like Oil. Time to move on to Afghanistan and Eastern Europe!
    This is one bubble I PRAY TO GOD to pop. If this industry keeps pushing this crap on the Russians doorstep or back home in the United States, Britain, or any sane country, things are going to get really really ugly. Even in China, people will start to revolt against the constant EYEBALL, Big BROTHER, Control your every thought and movement crap.
    But will people say enough is enough? What if another terrorist attack happens? What if Eastern Europe fear the Russians are going to attack them? Will the people of the world give up more freedoms, if the fear is great enough? Ask yourself, what did we do after 9/11?
    This industry is evil pure and simple. It was not devised by the hand of God. This bubble MUST be popped soon or we all lose.
    There are almost 200,000 private contractors in Iraq now. Where will they go next? Georgia? Ukraine? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Or maybe back to the United States to control us? And we the taxpayer pay for this insanity.
    This is a tapeworm that is going to destroy us, if we do not do sumthing about it fast.

    People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both."
    --Benjamin Franklin


    Several things came immediately to mind based on your bubble theory.
    1. In selected jurisdictions "security" could be a major growth industry for some time to come. The amount of chatter on this site about "guns", and the share performance of the US handgun makers, would seem to be good indicators of that. Create fear, and then sell into it.
    2. For anyone who has spent time in London, UK, one can see the unfortunate future that may await Canadian and US cities. It's virtually impossible to go anywhere in London without being on a security camera.
    3. Your post reminded me of an incident from years ago, when I first moved [pre-9/11] to one of the GCC countries in the Persian Gulf. I'd been told how safe the country was. Shortly after moving there, at a corporate function in the ballroom of a major hotel, I asked one of the other people at the table, a long-time expatriate resident, if the country was so safe why was there a need for so many security cameras in the ballroom. His response was "And what do you think makes it so safe..."

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: The ignored bubble

      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
      Several things came immediately to mind based on your bubble theory.
      1. ............
      2. For anyone who has spent time in London, UK, one can see the unfortunate future that may await Canadian and US cities. It's virtually impossible to go anywhere in London without being on a security camera.
      3. ................
      Kind of interesting that London is so extensively "watched". Is it something in the english culture - didn't Orwell see such a world. Strange that it happened to such an extreme degree there, first.

      As far as a potential boom or bust, until the black swan appears, I don't think we really know what major business sector will suddenly go bust.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The ignored bubble

        I started to put this together a few years ago. Never did finish it though.

        If you had invested in humvee manufacturers back in 2001...

        AM General, O'Gara-Hess & Eisenhardt Armoring Co., Force Protection Inc., Textron Marine and Land Systems, General Purpose Vehicles, LLC, General Dynamics, Oshkosh Truck Corporation and International Military and Government LLC, etc...

        In late August of 2001, the parent company of O'Gara-Hess & Eisenhardt Armoring Co. -- Services Group of the Kroll-O'Gara Co. (NASDAQ: KROG) -- was acquired for $52.2 million by Jacksonsville, Florida based Armor Holdings (NYSE: AH), according to the Jacksonville Business Journal.

        On the day the acquisition was announced, AH stock was trading for $15.00 on the NYSE.

        On Friday September 7th 2001, the second to last day of trading before September 11th, the closing price was $14.30 and volume was low with 28,900 shares being traded.

        On September 17th 2001, the day that the NYSE first re-opened after the attacks on 9/11, AH closed at $19.92 and the volume was 2,180,000 shares.

        Armor Holdings was eventually acquired on May 7, 2007 by BAE Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of the British arms and aerospace company, BAE Systems plc, for $4.1 billion or $88 a share.
        Last edited by Slimprofits; January 16, 2010, 12:45 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: The ignored bubble

          Cameras have their uses( I was a partner in a CCTV business), but are often required because authorities are lazy and the judicial system is too wimpy to treat criminals harshly.

          That Gulf country is more likely "safe" due to the swift and certain punishment criminals receive there than any security cameras.

          Comment

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