IEA source: Peak Oil is here

[GRG55]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

You might end up with something in the middle. I know one of our local supermarkets has started putting up signs for fruits and vegetables that are locally grown...

I've noticed the same thing up here in Canada, although our growing season is a bit limited compared to California or Mexico, from where we import a lot of food into western Canada. I am guessing that some of the factors are the rising cost of transporting commodities [especially from overseas], more competition between the four supermarkets in town [including the Wal-Mart], and perhaps consumers like me who are now intensely suspicious of any food imported from the Orient or Asia [it may not come directly from China, but I still can't tell if it contains low-cost Chinese melamine :p]

...When I lived in California, I was able to walk to the weekly farmer's market. A lot of cities are surrounded by farms a couple hours out. Some cities are starting to create neighborhood gardens and urban homesteading is becoming more popular.

No argument that these trends are happening...they just seem incompatible with the save-the-nation cries to "close down the suburbs and let's all move to a high-rise box in the city" that I occasionally see posted. What are we going to do...grow bok-choy on our balconies?

[necron99]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

There are many many business opportunities that will come about from $200.00 oil. It's a great way to get America doing something useful again.

I think the bigger issue is the fact that the public (through politicians and media) have been led to believe that high oil prices are a result of greedy oil companies and commodities speculators, not a fundamental supply issue. ... Instead of thoughtful solutions and working towards a transition, it just inspires nonproductive anger and vengeance in the general population.

Attributed to Winston Churchill: "You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing... AFTER they've tried everything else..." :p

[we_are_toast]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

What are we going to do...grow bok-choy on our balconies?

[metalman]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I've noticed the same thing up here in Canada, although our growing season is a bit limited compared to California or Mexico, from where we import a lot of food into western Canada. I am guessing that some of the factors are the rising cost of transporting commodities [especially from overseas], more competition between the four supermarkets in town [including the Wal-Mart], and perhaps consumers like me who are now intensely suspicious of any food imported from the Orient or Asia [it may not come directly from China, but I still can't tell if it contains low-cost Chinese melamine :p]



No argument that these trends are happening...they just seem incompatible with the save-the-nation cries to "close down the suburbs and let's all move to a high-rise box in the city" that I occasionally see posted. What are we going to do...grow bok-choy on our balconies?

that'd be kunsler, mr. y2k disaster forecaster...

compare to itulip on y2k...

[raja]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I wonder as oil and food prices go up, we'll see an increase in small family farms and people growing their own food. China is going to have high food demands and I wouldn't surprised if we end up shipping most of our food from large commercial farms out of country by Americans end up buying a lot of their food from local farms or growing gardens themselves. We'd all go back from buying from our local butcher or shopping at farmer's markets instead of grocery chains.

I've been long AMISH for the last two years.

I moved into an area of Mennonites (Amish-lite), and have been learning their farming ways. They grow produce, livestock, honey, etc., which they sell from roadside stands and through local distributors. They don't use banks or insurance. If someone needs to buy land or requires unusually expensive medical care, they pool together their resources.

I tell them that they are on the path to economic ascendancy. The US now flies and trucks in a majority of its produce. When oil goes up, this imported produce will not be competitive with locally grown, and local farmers will have more demand than they can handle. The Amish and Mennonites have even more of an edge than other local farmers -- they use horses (the degree of usage varies with the individual farmer), and therefore can produce food without any dependence on fossil fuels.

[Kadriana]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I've been long AMISH for the last two years.

I moved into an area of Mennonites (Amish-lite), and have been learning their farming ways. They grow produce, livestock, honey, etc., which they sell from roadside stands and through local distributors. They don't use banks or insurance. If someone needs to buy land or requires unusually expensive medical care, they pool together their resources.

I tell them that they are on the path to economic ascendancy. The US now flies and trucks in a majority of its produce. When oil goes up, this imported produce will not be competitive with locally grown, and local farmers will have more demand than they can handle. The Amish and Mennonites have even more of an edge than other local farmers -- they use horses (the degree of usage varies with the individual farmer), and therefore can produce food without any dependence on fossil fuels.

My family usually buys pies from the local Mennonites for Thanksgiving. I've been reading a lot of books and information about homesteading. I find it fascinating but it's a lot of work. I don't think I would want to live that way unless I had to. This was my first year canning and making things like spaghetti sauce and jelly from scratch. We've been thinking about getting some chickens and fresh eggs would be nice where I do so much baking. I figure it's not a bad idea to learn some of these skills and if inflation does hit, I can make a lot of meals for under $2 to feed 4.

[stanley2008]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Instead of raising chickens, I have decided to make the best of my investments so I can continue a normal lifestyle even if the SHTF.

I guess bananas will get more expensive due to oil going up - wow.

[jtabeb]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I believe that if the politicians were truthful and explained the forthcoming oil crisis, they would accept it and make meaningful changes in their lives to prepare. It would also allow for a national strategic plan to reduce oil use.

You and me both. brother.

The Gov's philosophy seems to be "why treat our citizens as adults when we can treat them as children".

[AlexPKeaton]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

No argument that these trends are happening...they just seem incompatible with the save-the-nation cries to "close down the suburbs and let's all move to a high-rise box in the city" that I occasionally see posted. What are we going to do...grow bok-choy on our balconies?

You are correct that a window garden is not a sufficient source of nutrition. But a traditional farm was 40-80 or more acres (and much more in the arid West), so I don't see a 0.25 acre suburban lot getting you much closer to the goal either, unless you have really good soil, climate, and water, like that family in Los Angeles.

Cities are a relatively old development in human history, and use less transportation fuel and high-rises are relatively efficient for heating and cooling (sprawling, hot Dallas uses 3x as much electricity per customer as New York City). It's also efficient to distribute food into a city (by rail?).

But I have some reading to do on this subject.

[AlexPKeaton]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

You and me both. brother.

The Gov's philosophy seems to be "why treat our citizens as adults when we can treat them as children".

Or "Presidents who wear sweaters are not vote-getters."?

[Kadriana]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

You are correct that a window garden is not a sufficient source of nutrition. But a traditional farm was 40-80 or more acres (and much more in the arid West), so I don't see a 0.25 acre suburban lot getting you much closer to the goal either, unless you have really good soil, climate, and water, like that family in Los Angeles.

But I have some reading to do on this subject.

It's easier to improve soil conditions on a smaller level than it is for big commercial farms. If your soil is that bad, you could always build raised beds and buy some bags of topsoil. The biggest concern would probably be rainfall in your area.

[llanlad2]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

In addition, the report said that in the US the identification of large reserves of gas trapped in shale rocks has opened up vast new areas of supply, eradicating the need for liquefied natural gas imports from abroad...

There was an economic commentator on national radio (5Live in the UK) talking about how this massive supply of shale gas meant we were all in for subdued gas prices for the next few years. I guess they haven't been looking at the true depletion rates for these shale gas operations on the peak cheap oil update thread.

[ggirod]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

From GRG55: No argument that these trends are happening...they just seem incompatible with the save-the-nation cries to "close down the suburbs and let's all move to a high-rise box in the city" that I occasionally see posted. What are we going to do...grow bok-choy on our balconies?

First, my flippant answer: There is an "As Advertised On TV" plastic hanging gadget that allows you to grow tomatoes in tremendous quantities hanging plants upside down on a balcony with an almost hydroponic method.... A few friends in the far north, where such things should fail, report astounding success and lament that they cannot buy yet more of the product. Next year, my deck will be a test site for the product

There seems to be a considerable divergence in thought regarding local food. Interpreted as growing your own garden, it is clearly not well suited to urban settings though in shrinking cities like Flint and Detroit, MI, vacant land is being returned to its agricultural usage with neighborhood gardens. While those gardens will not feed the residents all their food, they will certainly provide a wealth of fresh vegetables in season and foods that the residents probably can't buy and couldn't afford if they could buy them. Concerned parents will be able to introduce their children to lots of vegetables they might otherwise not get to eat. Also, high rise greenhouses are eventually in our future for locations with suitable sun and climate. In fact, the interior of the buildings could actually house workers and offices while the exterior surface provided light and warmth for growing food. Waste heat from air conditioning the interior could provide for rapid growth of plants in the greenhouse portion, as just one optimization in a system that supports many efficiencies.

Suburban sprawl is largely a different problem related primarily to the wasted energy for commuting, the impact of a low density, non-walkable, automotive only, diluted community that is expensive to support and wasteful of resources. The two issues meet in that driving your SUV to the grocery megaplex to buy African oranges, Peruvian grapes, Thai and Vietnamese farm raised shrimp, and various other products from all over the world, along with nutritionally worthless/harmful over-processed foods from the US, is the common suburban lifestyle. I hate to cite CO2 production but it is an issue. Further is just the consumption of fossil fuels and finally is the waste of money that accompanies shipping food such distances.

Instead, people should be thinking of Local Food which is food produced nearby and sold locally. Farmer's markets, supermarkets, and other stores can sell local produce with benefits in freshness and energy from delivery direct to the customer at a market.

I have shopped farmer's markets for decades in cities and continue to shop there now that I live in the woods. Even though I now have to drive 20 miles to the market it is still worth the trip and I plan my week around market day. That is because for the same price as I pay for California, Mexican, or South American produce, I support my community, save lots of fuel (and CO2), have confidence that the farmer, his family, and often even his neighbors are seeing a significant part of my money, and that they care that I am happy with my purchase. Prices are competitive which means that by paying about the same money, I am supporting the whole distribution chain by paying one family for their work. It is a wonderful feeling to do that in this era when you can be sure that proceeds of most traditional supermarket food purchases accrue mostly to Wall Street for debt and oil companies for fuel, and not to the workers for their blood, sweat, and tears. The whole farmer's market transaction is a joy; from picking the stand with today's best produce, ... to selecting it while learning from other customers who seem always to have strong opinions on a variety of food topics, ... to buying it from somebody who likely picked it last evening or early this morning and is enthusiastic about their product. The personal experience would frequently justify the choice of the market but getting home with fresh (<24 Hrs) corn on the cob or other treat just adds to the experience.

Even Walmart sometimes buys local foods and resells them, so it is not always necessary to buy only from farmer's markets. The major point is to buy things in season and from nearby sources. That means, however, that you need to plan based on your local climate, what you buy when, and how you plan your meals. For example, I really like Italian tomato sauces so I need sweet peppers year around. This summer I bought a year's supply of peppers in season at relatively low cost, cut them up and dehydrated them ... placing them in the freezer to keep them fresh longer. I will not have to import peppers in Winter and Spring and will have nice peppers in my tomato sauce all year. Ditto for celery and other common produce. It takes some planning but saves money and mostly improves the quality of life.

As people adopt this approach they will be less likely to buy produce out of season from far flung producers at terrible costs for fuel, etc. Instead, they will, as Kadriana does, learn progressively to can/dehydrate produce in season whether they grow them or buy locally, learn to preserve foods in old traditional ways, and basically adopt a healthier lifestyle with more healthful and sensual pleasure and with a smaller footprint on the planet.

Living, as I do, in the Upper Peninsula of MI, the number of crops possible in this climate are limited. (If you don't believe it is cold, just look at a map!) Potatoes, Onions, Carrots, Beets (notice a pattern? ... root crops!), lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower, apples (but not peaches) are easy ... tomatoes are hard, as are peppers, zuchini, and other basically tropical plants. So, if I want to eat local foods I have to plan what I raise/buy and how I do it. Increased locavore activity, however, has led to local farmers setting up greenhouses to extend their growing season and sell more diverse products. I am very pleased to see my spending supporting such efforts, and locavores who look around where they live can feel good for many of their contributions to quality of life for everyone.

Of course, disintermediating a whole bunch of middle-persons is not popular, as this Forbes' article notes. I am not a food expert, but it appears to me that (sometimes warlords?), airlines, shipping vessels, buyers, distributors, and truckers involved in getting that third world produce to your table count a lot more to Wall Street than the poor third world farmer who is made out in the article to be the victim. Succulent oranges from Africa taste a bit less sweet when one considers that, by buying them, the price in local currency rises and some African children probably get closer to Scurvy for lack of citrus. It is impossible for me to accept that my money going to a third world nation doesn't deprive some people in that nation of food. The powers in favor of globalization benefit from the middle persons' work and investments in shipping, letters of credit, etc, not from the labor or investment that produced the food. Somehow, I suspect that each individual stage in the process of getting the food from around the globe to your table gets more profit than the farmer who produced it.

I will close with the following quote:

Instead of raising chickens, I have decided to make the best of my investments so I can continue a normal lifestyle even if the SHTF.

I wish you well in your endeavors and I suspect that if you have enough money invested, you will find success. A lot of us may find ourselves closer to the limits of financial survival. We may find ourselves struggling to provide our food, our warmth/cooling, our medical care, and our other necessities within the limits of our resources. With the dollar depreciating and "normal" investment performance, that may include lots of us. Preparing personally to thrive in a time of hardship seems to be a worthwhile alternative to investing one's resources in financial instruments of dubious credibility and value. This is just IMHO, neither a flame nor an argument. Take it as you will, and Godspeed.

[oddlots]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Re farming: here's a recent video from my new financial advisor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dj5fImveQxo

[mooncliff]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

"Uppsala University in Sweden today published a scathing assessment of the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, saying some assumptions drastically underplayed the scale of future oil shortages."

Summary graphs at bottom of article.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...psala-aleklett