IEA source: Peak Oil is here

[mooncliff]

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

A report by the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...-energy-agency

[Mega]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Hi Moon
Bugger, you beat me to it (Well done)
Somebody better tell EJ.

Mike

[mooncliff]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Cantarell, which used to be the second largest field, crashed by 3/4 over a few years while Pemex said no problem.

This article says Ghawar, the most gigantic field of all time is "largely depleted"... hell, they are calling in Haliburton. (I don't know why the article is so riddled with errors)

The rule of thumb is that serious damage to the US economy starts at $70 a barrel. It is higher than that for WTI already.

The "long undulating plateau" might be instead whipsawing or something much less pleasant. Investing at least a part of your money in energy efficiency may turn out to pay a higher return.

[BadJuju]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Most of us are on the cusp of things, so this is hardly news to us.

[mooncliff]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Most of us are on the cusp of things, so this is hardly news to us.

Yes, we who have been following along know, but since I saw that there were 37 guests, I figured they might not have heard much about this before.

Just last year I had someone whose family actually owned an oil well tell me that there is no problem and that we will just use stripper wells or improve tertiary recovery...

[BadJuju]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Yes, we who have been following along know, but since I saw that there were 37 guests, I figured they might not have heard much about this before.

Just last year I had someone whose family actually owned an oil well tell me that there is no problem and that we will just use stripper wells or improve tertiary recovery...

Oh, I was not implying that I had anything against your post. This is just another example of the blinds being pulled over the general populace.

[mooncliff]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

What was the industry that powered Britain towards prosperity in the 1980s, and made us one of the most dynamic and successful nations in the Western world? I'll give you a clue: it was described by a prime minister as "God's gift" to the British economy; its revenue stream pumped ever larger amounts of cash into the Exchequer – and its subsequent collapse has helped send the public finances spiralling towards disaster.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...o-the-red.html

This is why some people suspect that the growing realization that the whole world may have oil supply problems in the near future is what is bringing the series of endless growth bubbles to an end. Oil supply problems implies no growth, at best, for quite a while. Later, if efficiency gets really good and we can bring the costs of alternatives down, we will get a boom the likes of which we can barely dream.

[jtabeb]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Oil supply problems implies no growth, at best, for quite a while. Later, if efficiency gets really good and we can bring the costs of alternatives down, we will get a boom the likes of which we can barely dream.

Yeah, but in the mean time, the public is going to be pissed-off as fuck!

[stanley2008]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Yeah, but in the mean time, the public is going to be pissed-off as fuck!

Haha, true that.

But actually, if we get $200.00 oil it will force innovation as well, and that's going to be a good green bubble. There are many many business opportunities that will come about from $200.00 oil. It's a great way to get America doing something useful again.

This was mentioned during the presidential elections a little bit - but it's way off the radar until we break some oil price barriers. An oil price shakedown would be good for America to endure right now - it would actually force the organic creation of jobs, instead of repairing freeway bridges etc just for the sake of doing something.

Obama has a chance to shake it up, and I hope he succeeds.

[GRG55]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

A report by the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...-energy-agency

The IEA is out with its latest forecast this morning.

Here's a link to their press release...

...and some headlines ;):

IEA Cuts 2030 Oil Demand Forecast on Economy, Climate Policy

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency cut its long-term forecast for global oil demand as the economic crisis saps consumption in developed economies and environmental policies encourage alternative energy use.

Global oil demand is expected to advance 1 percent a year to 105 million barrels a day by 2030 from 85 million barrels a day in 2008, the adviser to 28 nations said today in its annual World Energy Outlook. The figure is below last year’s 2030 estimate of 106 million barrels a day.

“The global financial crisis and ensuing recession have had a dramatic impact on the outlook for energy markets,” the Paris-based agency said in its executive summary of the report. “World energy demand in aggregate has already plunged with the economic contraction.”...

...Climate-change legislation will also slow long-term crude oil demand, the IEA said...

...All the growth in oil demand through 2030 will come from developing economies, according to the IEA report. Consumption in the developed countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will shrink during the period...

IEA: Low-carbon plans to cause gas glut

Improvements in energy efficiency and wider deployment of low-carbon technologies could reduce global gas consumption by five per cent by 2015 and 17 per cent by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario, according to new projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The Financial Times reported yesterday that a draft version of the IEA's World Energy Outlook, the flagship annual report due for release next week, shows that the planned rollout of renewable and nuclear energy programmes should begin to significantly eat into demand for natural gas within the next five years.

It predicted that even with the projected economic recovery, European demand for gas will not recover to 2008 levels of 542 billion cubic metres (bcm) until 2020 before then dropping back to 525bcm by 2030.

As a result, gas is likely to become oversupplied and prices are predicted to fall, reducing Europe's reliance on Russia as its major supplier.

In addition, the report said that in the US the identification of large reserves of gas trapped in shale rocks has opened up vast new areas of supply, eradicating the need for liquefied natural gas imports from abroad...

IEA report sees oil price at $100 a barrel in 2020

PARIS: The International Energy Agency forecast on Tuesday that the oil price would be $100 a barrel in 2020 and $115 in 2030, saying oil demand would rise by one percent per year.

Global demand would rise from 85 million in 2008 to 105 mbd in 2030, assuming that forthcoming negotiations on global warming in Copenhagen did not result in immediate big changes in energy policies, the IEA said.

Global energy costs to soar if no carbon deal: IEA

Tue Nov 10, 2009 7:51am EST

PARIS/LONDON (Reuters) - The world faces a surge in energy costs, as well as in planet-warming carbon emissions, unless it can swiftly agree a climate change deal, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

Arguing strongly for a global deal at the U.N. Climate Change summit in Copenhagen in December, the IEA said use of fossil fuels would increase quickly if policies remained unchanged.
Without an international agreement on climate change, the ratio of energy spending to gross domestic product for the largest consumer countries would double by 2030...


...A key driver of energy demand would be inexorable growth in power generation, it said, forecasting in its reference scenario world electricity demand would grow 2.5 percent a year to 2030...

There's one thing that can be counted upon...no matter what the IEA forecasts they'll be wrong far more often than not...:p

[Kadriana]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

Haha, true that.

But actually, if we get $200.00 oil it will force innovation as well, and that's going to be a good green bubble. There are many many business opportunities that will come about from $200.00 oil. It's a great way to get America doing something useful again.

This was mentioned during the presidential elections a little bit - but it's way off the radar until we break some oil price barriers. An oil price shakedown would be good for America to endure right now - it would actually force the organic creation of jobs, instead of repairing freeway bridges etc just for the sake of doing something.

Obama has a chance to shake it up, and I hope he succeeds.

I wonder as oil and food prices go up, we'll see an increase in small family farms and people growing their own food. China is going to have high food demands and I wouldn't surprised if we end up shipping most of our food from large commercial farms out of country by Americans end up buying a lot of their food from local farms or growing gardens themselves. We'd all go back from buying from our local butcher or shopping at farmer's markets instead of grocery chains.

[GRG55]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I wonder as oil and food prices go up, we'll see an increase in small family farms and people growing their own food. China is going to have high food demands and I wouldn't surprised if we end up shipping most of our food from large commercial farms out of country by Americans end up buying a lot of their food from local farms or growing gardens themselves. We'd all go back from buying from our local butcher or shopping at farmer's markets instead of grocery chains.

I find it interesting that at the same time that some iTulipers decry the suburbs for "wasteful" use of resources, particularly transport fuel, and call for more densification of the cities, others are suggesting a more bucolic future of farmer's markets and garden plots.

Densification of our cities would seem to imply higher standardization of food distribution [and a whole lot of other things] which would seem to give the big agro-businesses and supermarket chains an advantage.

[dbarberic]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I think the bigger issue is the fact that the public (through politicians and media) have been led to believe that high oil prices are a result of greedy oil companies and commodities speculators, not a fundamental supply issue.

This is going to have massive consequences the next oil price spike. Instead of thoughtful solutions and working towards a transition, it just inspires nonproductive anger and vengeance in the general population.

I believe that if the politicians were truthful and explained the forthcoming oil crisis, they would accept it and make meaningful changes in their lives to prepare. It would also allow for a national strategic plan to reduce oil use.

[GRG55]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I think the bigger issue is the fact that the public (through politicians and media) have been led to believe that high oil prices are a result of greedy oil companies and commodities speculators, not a fundamental supply issue.

This is going to have massive consequences the next oil price spike. Instead of thoughtful solutions and working towards a transition, it just inspires nonproductive anger and vengeance in the general population.

I believe that if the politicians were truthful and explained the forthcoming oil crisis, they would accept it and make meaningful changes in their lives to prepare. It would also allow for a national strategic plan to reduce oil use.

I prefer to think that Exxon is hoarding the stuff.

It makes it easier to get through the day...:rolleyes:

[Kadriana]

Re: IEA source: Peak Oil is here

I find it interesting that at the same time that some iTulipers decry the suburbs for "wasteful" use of resources, particularly transport fuel, and call for more densification of the cities, others are suggesting a more bucolic future of farmer's markets and garden plots.

Densification of our cities would seem to imply higher standardization of food distribution [and a whole lot of other things] which would seem to give the big agro-businesses and supermarket chains an advantage.

You might end up with something in the middle. I know one of our local supermarkets has started putting up signs for fruits and vegetables that are locally grown. When I lived in California, I was able to walk to the weekly farmer's market. A lot of cities are surrounded by farms a couple hours out. Some cities are starting to create neighborhood gardens and urban homesteading is becoming more popular.