Long dated oil tops $100

[Mega]

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...ted-oil-soars/
Mike

[GRG55]

Re: Long dated oil tops $100

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...ted-oil-soars/
Mike

Here's the monthly futures from NYMEX for Brent [if Saudi Aramco can boycott WTI, we can too... ] for anyone that may want to see how the curve looks from now till 2017 [data is Nov 6 close]

Dec-09		$ 77.77
Jan-10		$ 78.57
Feb-10		$ 79.34
Mar-10		$ 80.06
Apr-10		$ 80.72
May-10		$ 81.35
Jun-10		$ 81.96
Jul-10		$ 82.51
Aug-10		$ 83.05
Sep-10		$ 83.56
Oct-10		$ 84.02
Nov-10		$ 84.38
Dec-10		$ 84.72
Jan-11		$ 85.08
Feb-11		$ 85.43
Mar-11		$ 85.73
Apr-11		$ 86.02
May-11		$ 86.28
Jun-11		$ 86.52
Jul-11		$ 86.75
Aug-11		$ 86.97
Sep-11		$ 87.15
Oct-11		$ 87.33
Nov-11		$ 87.51
Dec-11		$ 87.68
Jan-12		$ 87.84
Feb-12		$ 87.99
Mar-12		$ 88.14
Apr-12		$ 88.28
May-12		$ 88.42
Jun-12		$ 88.56
Jul-12		$ 88.70
Aug-12		$ 88.84
Sep-12		$ 88.98
Oct-12		$ 89.11
Nov-12		$ 89.24
Dec-12		$ 89.37
Jan-13		$ 89.50
Feb-13		$ 89.63
Mar-13		$ 89.76
Apr-13		$ 89.89
May-13		$ 90.02
Jun-13		$ 90.15
Jul-13		$ 90.28
Aug-13		$ 90.41
Sep-13		$ 90.53
Oct-13		$ 90.65
Nov-13		$ 90.77
Dec-13		$ 90.89
Jan-14		$ 91.03
Feb-14		$ 91.17
Mar-14		$ 91.31
Apr-14		$ 91.46
May-14		$ 91.61
Jun-14		$ 91.76
Jul-14		$ 91.91
Aug-14		$ 92.06
Sep-14		$ 92.21
Oct-14		$ 92.36
Nov-14		$ 92.51
Dec-14		$ 92.66
Jan-15		$ 92.66
Feb-15		$ 92.66
Mar-15		$ 92.66
Apr-15		$ 92.66
May-15		$ 92.66
Jun-15		$ 93.64
Jul-15		$ 93.64
Aug-15		$ 93.64
Sep-15		$ 93.64
Oct-15		$ 93.64
Nov-15		$ 93.64
Dec-15		$ 94.62
Jan-16		$ 94.62
Feb-16		$ 94.62
Mar-16		$ 94.62
Apr-16		$ 94.62
May-16		$ 94.62
Jun-16		$ 95.64
Jul-16		$ 95.64
Aug-16		$ 95.64
Sep-16		$ 95.64
Oct-16		$ 95.64
Nov-16		$ 95.64
Dec-16		$ 96.67
Jan-17		$ 96.67
Feb-17		$ 96.67
Nov-17		$ 97.75
Dec-17		$ 98.82

[LargoWinch]

Re: Long dated oil tops $100

Dang! I take GRG's data over alphaville any day.

$98.82 it is...for now

[metalman]

Re: Long dated oil tops $100

Here's the monthly futures from NYMEX for Brent [if Saudi Aramco can boycott WTI, we can too... ] for anyone that may want to see how the curve looks from now till 2017 [data is Nov 6 close]

Dec-09		$ 77.77
Jan-10		$ 78.57
Feb-10		$ 79.34
Mar-10		$ 80.06
Apr-10		$ 80.72
May-10		$ 81.35
Jun-10		$ 81.96
Jul-10		$ 82.51
Aug-10		$ 83.05
Sep-10		$ 83.56
Oct-10		$ 84.02
Nov-10		$ 84.38
Dec-10		$ 84.72
Jan-11		$ 85.08
Feb-11		$ 85.43
Mar-11		$ 85.73
Apr-11		$ 86.02
May-11		$ 86.28
Jun-11		$ 86.52
Jul-11		$ 86.75
Aug-11		$ 86.97
Sep-11		$ 87.15
Oct-11		$ 87.33
Nov-11		$ 87.51
Dec-11		$ 87.68
Jan-12		$ 87.84
Feb-12		$ 87.99
Mar-12		$ 88.14
Apr-12		$ 88.28
May-12		$ 88.42
Jun-12		$ 88.56
Jul-12		$ 88.70
Aug-12		$ 88.84
Sep-12		$ 88.98
Oct-12		$ 89.11
Nov-12		$ 89.24
Dec-12		$ 89.37
Jan-13		$ 89.50
Feb-13		$ 89.63
Mar-13		$ 89.76
Apr-13		$ 89.89
May-13		$ 90.02
Jun-13		$ 90.15
Jul-13		$ 90.28
Aug-13		$ 90.41
Sep-13		$ 90.53
Oct-13		$ 90.65
Nov-13		$ 90.77
Dec-13		$ 90.89
Jan-14		$ 91.03
Feb-14		$ 91.17
Mar-14		$ 91.31
Apr-14		$ 91.46
May-14		$ 91.61
Jun-14		$ 91.76
Jul-14		$ 91.91
Aug-14		$ 92.06
Sep-14		$ 92.21
Oct-14		$ 92.36
Nov-14		$ 92.51
Dec-14		$ 92.66
Jan-15		$ 92.66
Feb-15		$ 92.66
Mar-15		$ 92.66
Apr-15		$ 92.66
May-15		$ 92.66
Jun-15		$ 93.64
Jul-15		$ 93.64
Aug-15		$ 93.64
Sep-15		$ 93.64
Oct-15		$ 93.64
Nov-15		$ 93.64
Dec-15		$ 94.62
Jan-16		$ 94.62
Feb-16		$ 94.62
Mar-16		$ 94.62
Apr-16		$ 94.62
May-16		$ 94.62
Jun-16		$ 95.64
Jul-16		$ 95.64
Aug-16		$ 95.64
Sep-16		$ 95.64
Oct-16		$ 95.64
Nov-16		$ 95.64
Dec-16		$ 96.67
Jan-17		$ 96.67
Feb-17		$ 96.67
Nov-17		$ 97.75
Dec-17		$ 98.82

just curious... snapshot of monthly futures from nymex brent taken in 2002 looked like... what? did it show $147 oil in 2008?

[GRG55]

Re: Long dated oil tops $100

just curious... snapshot of monthly futures from nymex brent taken in 2002 looked like... what? did it show $147 oil in 2008?

No.

I don't have the data readily to hand, but I am quite certain that crude futures were backwardated through all of 2002, with the futures prices reflecting the cost of storage and therefore the longer dated contracts were priced at a discount to the spot or current month price. In 2002 the market was coming off the post 9/11 4thQ '01 bottom, and the spot price of Brent rose from under $18 in January to over $30 by the end of the year [see the table below...WTI behaved similarly].

If I recall correctly the crude market didn't go into a sustained contango until mid-2004, by which time the stories of China's energy consumption ramp were boosting the whole curve. In Nov 2005 the Kuwait Oil Company announced that it had abandoned attempts to arrest the decline of Burgan [second largest oil field by reserves] and by the following year the decline of Mexico's Cantarell field [second largest field by production] was confirmed...and it's all history after that.

Week Of:		Mon	Tue	Wed	Thur	Fri
2002 Jan- 7 to Jan-11		21.08	21.03	20.21	19.71	20.08
2002 Jan-14 to Jan-18		18.89	18.86	18.5	18.2	18.17
2002 Jan-21 to Jan-25		18.32	18.7	18.89	18.91	19.04
2002 Jan-28 to Feb- 1		19.74	19.26	18.71	19.07	19.7
2002 Feb- 4 to Feb- 8		20.26	19.9	19.97	19.42	20.01
2002 Feb-11 to Feb-15		20.08	21.75	21.41	20.97	20.76
2002 Feb-18 to Feb-22		20.12	20.18	19.44	20.21	20.14
2002 Feb-25 to Mar- 1		19.78	19.95	20.73	20.73	21.83
2002 Mar- 4 to Mar- 8		21.59	22.25	22.11	23.1	22.32
2002 Mar-11 to Mar-15		23.14	22.7	23.6	23.76	23.9
2002 Mar-18 to Mar-22		23.8	24.51	24.78	24.25	24.83
2002 Mar-25 to Mar-29		24.75	24.6	25.13	25.34	25.34
2002 Apr- 1 to Apr- 5		26.06	26.97	26.72	26.97	25.39
2002 Apr- 8 to Apr-12		26.36	25.48	25.13	24.22	23.25
2002 Apr-15 to Apr-19		23.39	24.03	25.26	25.9	25.86
2002 Apr-22 to Apr-26		25.96	26.26	26.2	26.47	26.32
2002 Apr-29 to May- 3		26.85	26.98	26.67	25.73	25.8
2002 May- 6 to May-10			25.53	26.09	26.09	26.89
2002 May-13 to May-17		26.3	27.12	27.17	25.71	25.45
2002 May-20 to May-24		25.97	24.99	24.32	24.01	23.76
2002 May-27 to May-31		23.52	24.71	24.18	23.72	23.87
2002 Jun- 3 to Jun- 7				23.19	22.79	22.99
2002 Jun-10 to Jun-14		22.83	22.37	23.09	23.72	23.97
2002 Jun-17 to Jun-21		24.69	24.64	24.85	24.42	24.14
2002 Jun-24 to Jun-28		24.99	25.32	24.75	25.39	25.33
2002 Jul- 1 to Jul- 5		25.65	25.64	25.59	25.51	25.75
2002 Jul- 8 to Jul-12		25.08	24.9	25.82	25.83	26.11
2002 Jul-15 to Jul-19		26.16	25.94	26.19	26.72	26.37
2002 Jul-22 to Jul-26		25.7	25.65	25.43	25.36	25.1
2002 Jul-29 to Aug- 2		25.2	25.95	26.28	25.79	25.17
2002 Aug- 5 to Aug- 9		25.2	25.69	25.7	25.51	25.49
2002 Aug-12 to Aug-16		25.63	26.11	26.47	26.66	27.33
2002 Aug-19 to Aug-23		27.44	27.63	27.53	27.81	27.51
2002 Aug-26 to Aug-30		27.56	27.89	27.54	27.11	27.56
2002 Sep- 2 to Sep- 6		27.45	26.58	27.31	27.54	28.36
2002 Sep- 9 to Sep-13		28.67	28.92	28.68	27.76	28.53
2002 Sep-16 to Sep-20		28.38	27.76	28.41	28.45	28.61
2002 Sep-23 to Sep-27		29.36	29.47	29.11	28.93	29
2002 Sep-30 to Oct- 4		29.11	29.42	29.14	28.46	28.32
2002 Oct- 7 to Oct-11		28.38	28.28	28.29	27.7	28.18
2002 Oct-14 to Oct-18		28.56	28.66	28.61	28.22	28.2
2002 Oct-21 to Oct-25		27.01	26.69	26.68	26.78	25.96
2002 Oct-28 to Nov- 1		25.44	25.71	25.29	25.51	25.78
2002 Nov- 4 to Nov- 8		25.21	24.66	23.73	24.36	23.54
2002 Nov-11 to Nov-15		23.86	24.01	22.96	22.82	23.33
2002 Nov-18 to Nov-22		23.41	24.05	24.05	24.52	24.79
2002 Nov-25 to Nov-29		24.85	24.56	25.11	25.7	25.74
2002 Dec- 2 to Dec- 6		25.73	26.09	25.99	26.07	25.67
2002 Dec- 9 to Dec-13		26.06	26.35	26.85	27.29	27.64
2002 Dec-16 to Dec-20		28.73	29.25	29.95	30.26	29.59
2002 Dec-23 to Dec-27		30.61	30.93			31.49
2002 Dec-30 to Dec -31		32.02	30.12