Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

[fightthepower]

I trade Nat Gas and Power for a living. I have not seen volume on Nat Gas this high since Ameranth blew up. I noticed WTI's volume was very high as well.

I also read last week that short positions in Nat Gas were at a record, today looked like short covering--the price was up nearly 5%. But, oil had massive volume and didn't move much.

Has anyone heard anything?

[fightthepower]

Re: Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

The EIA short term energy forecast came out yesterday. I doubt this was the cause of the increased volume.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/apr07.pdf

HIGHLIGHTS

Recent and continuing international tensions amplify the effects of already tight international petroleum markets as the summer season (April through September) begins. At the same time, unanticipated refinery problems in February and March, both in the United States and abroad, reduced the supply of gasoline resulting in seasonal price increases about a month earlier than usual.

As a result of tight oil markets and continued international uncertainty, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to average over $65 per barrel this summer (compared with $70 per barrel last summer) and average close to $64 per barrel annually for both 2007 and 2008. However, as we have seen in the recent past, petroleum prices are subject to significant volatility, particularly when markets are tight and tensions in oil exporting nations deepen.

U.S. retail motor gasoline prices surged over the last 2 months, rising by more than 60 cents per gallon due to higher crude oil prices, unplanned refinery outages, increased demand for gasoline, and low levels of gasoline imports from Europe. Although gasoline prices began their seasonal increase about a month earlier than usual, the rapid rate of price increase is projected to slow over the next few months.

During the summer season the average monthly gasoline pump price is projected to peak at an average of $2.87 per gallon in May, compared with $2.98 per gallon last July. Retail regular grade motor gasoline prices are projected to average $2.81 per gallon this summer compared with $2.84 per gallon last summer.

Concerns about extreme weather conditions and rising prices in the oil market will keep upward pressure on the Henry Hub natural gas spot price during much of the forecast period. On an annual basis, the Henry Hub spot price is expected to average $7.83 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2007, an 89-cent increase from the 2006 average, and $8.11 per mcf in 2008.

Following large increases in residential electricity prices during 2006, prices are projected to grow at a slower rate of 3.0 percent during 2007. Electricity prices are expected to continue to grow at 3.1 percent during 2008 as higher fuel costs are passed through to retail customers. Some regions with States in the midst of electric power restructuring, such as New England and the West South Central, could face highly volatile prices in 2007 and 2008.

[bill]

Re: Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

The Carbon Tax proposal http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17996839/site/newsweek/ seems to be driving NG.

Sen. John Kerry and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich met in Washington on Tuesday for a verbal duel about climate change, finding agreement on the problem but vastly different approaches to a solution.

http://www.nysun.com/article/52247

[Darin]

Re: Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

On a sidenote: BHP Billiton's four-year attempt/bid to put a LNG terminal in Southern California was shot down yesterday. Shame, imo.

[fightthepower]

Re: Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

On a sidenote: BHP Billiton's four-year attempt/bid to put a LNG terminal in Southern California was shot down yesterday. Shame, imo.

Of course they'll complain when their costs of gas continue to rise.

[jk]

Re: Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

the difficulty in siting lng terminals is a bullish long-term factor for domestic and canadian gas.

[fightthepower]

Re: Huge Volume On Oil and Nat Gas

Nat gas broke through last week's support of $7.75 today. It is right at the 20 day moving average at 7.54.