New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

[Sapiens]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091022/..._fi/us_economy

WASHINGTON – The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, after falling in five of the past six weeks, as employers remain reluctant to hire even with the economy showing signs of recovery.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 531,000 last week, from an upwardly revised 520,000 the previous week. Wall Street economists had expected only a slight increase, according to Thomson Reuters.

...

When those programs are included, the total number of recipients dropped to 8.8 million in the week ending Oct. 3, the latest data available, down about 50,000 from the previous week. That decline is likely due to recipients running out of benefits, rather than finding jobs, economists say.

...

What's next for those falling off the system, poverty? Crime?

[Quincy K]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091022/..._fi/us_economy



What's next for those falling off the system, poverty? Crime?

Armageddon.

The only thing keeping this all together is the extension of UE benefits. They are going to keep extending them, however, once your account is exhausted of funds...it's lights out.

If the USG did not continue to extend UE benefits, I believe that we would already have had civil unrest episodes similar to that of Latvia.

[MulaMan]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

I agree that a "fair wage for hard work" IS the issue in America today and an increase in wages and job security is the ONLY way out long term.

Private sector wages have been squeezed for 20 years by "free market" propoganda - NAFTA, offshoring, globalization, illegal immigrants, financial engineering, removing pensions, employees paying hundreds a month for thier own health care, ect...

Ford's version of capitalism was based on pay HIGH WAGES to blue collar employees so that they can CONSUME - purchase his cars.

The American century was about a simple man working 35-40hrs per week able to raise a family of 4 (spouse & 2 kids), own a home in the burbs (200-300K), put the kids through college, AND recieve a great pension for 20-30 years. That was THE STANDARD MIDDLE CLASS.

Unions have been marketed as "evil socialists" while they where a key in creating the American century and strong, highly paid, labor is a KEY TO CAPITALISM.

Contrast that to public employees (California) where it is easy for a simple worker to make 100K per year, police and such can make 200K per year, paid 2X or 3X overtime, job protections, free health care, state mortgage benefits, guarenteed pensions of 80K to 120K per year after 25yrs service.

In California teachers that earn 45K per year can make 75K per year in overtime!

Rather then destroy public workers unions we need to re-instate private workers untions and labor protections plus make up somehow for all those workers in the private sector with no pension after working 20-25 years in America - yes 100% socialism in today's Ann Rand cult follower terms.

The simple REASON why a corporate CEO makes 100 million per years is because they are at the top of a 30,000+ EMPLOYEE UNION and simply TAKE the WAGES, PENSIONS, BENEFITS, OVERTIME PAY, ECT... FROM EMPLOYEES - IT IS AS SIMPLE AS THAT.

WEATLH AND WAGES NEED TO BE RE-DISTRIBUTED BY LAW AND REGULATION OR AMERICAN IS DONE. PERIOD.

30,000 employees X 50K per year in lost benefits & pension contributions = $1.5 million - there is your CEO bonus right there. SIMPLE AS THAT.

The primary SKILL of an American CEO today is his/her ability to climb to the top of a pyramid scheme and then take as much salary as possible out of the people that work for you.

[goadam1]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091022/..._fi/us_economy



What's next for those falling off the system, poverty? Crime?

They need to become capitalist. They need to borrow zirp money from the fed and invest in the markets. Instant riches and unlimited bonuses. A perfect blend of socialism and capitalism, really.

[charliebrown]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

your points are well taken, but I'm a little more free market than you are.
We dont have a free market. It is heavily regulated. The things that are really expensive in your example have big doses of regulation.

Housing: In my suburban neighborhood a "family" house will run 250 - 300.
This is too much money. Families don't earn 125 - 150K that traditionally would qualify them for home ownership . But look at all the building codes, inspectors, gvt programs etc propping up home prices. Let them fall! No more mortgage tax deduction, freddy, fanny, fha financing, no more 4K building permits for putting on a stupid family room. No 2-3% of home value property taxes. This is killing us.

Medicine: Need I say more ... Regulated out the butt. Big barriers to entry, Lawyers out the wazoo on both sides. Too much defensive medicine. Too many legally mandated tests and coverage. Too much opacity in costs and results.

Education too. Way over priced. 20K per year for a state college? Of course the school must be "acredited". Way too much spending on brick and mortar, etc. High school teachers making 100K? are not firable, get a big fat pension, only work 9 months a year.

All of this stuff has to deflate, then J6P can earn 30K a year, and have his house, medicine, and send his kids to school. and his lower salary will make him competive with other low cost labor around the world.

Oh by the way your 1.5Million CEO pay is off by 1000. 30k x 50k = 1500 * 1000 * 1000 = 1.5B. CEO pay is too high. However it is not the role of gvt to dictate it. If the gvt didn't bail out these stupid companies, then the CEO pay would be 0. yeah the whole financial system may have collapsed, but hey the sun would still rise tomorrow. It did in the Soviet Union, Argentina, etc. Time for a reset.

[jpatter666]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

Oh by the way your 1.5Million CEO pay is off by 1000. 30k x 50k = 1500 * 1000 * 1000 = 1.5B. CEO pay is too high. However it is not the role of gvt to dictate it. If the gvt didn't bail out these stupid companies, then the CEO pay would be 0. yeah the whole financial system may have collapsed, but hey the sun would still rise tomorrow. It did in the Soviet Union, Argentina, etc. Time for a reset.

I don't have a problem with high CEO pay -- in fact, I don't have a problem with high pay for anyone -- so long as it is tied to *long-term* performance with serious clawbacks (including spouses, trusts, *whatever*) if things implode down the line.

It's utterly ridiculous some of the paychecks -- and then golden parachutes these CEOs got. I do not invest in companies which pursue such policies -- that's MY money they are throwing away.

On another note, I think we're going to see the return of dividends for a great many stocks. This greater fool nonsense of people chasing stocks that pay nothing in the hope that someone will buy it from them for a higher price is coming to an end.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

BUT BUT BUT ......CNN said it this way

Economy: Around 531,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment last week, down from 520,000 the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting a bigger drop, to 515,000.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/22/mark...york/index.htm

Quality journalism - always - Do they pay these drones or are they just short proofreaders :rolleyes:

And now some truth
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2009

Quick Blurbs About Earnings, Analysts, Reporting and Unemployment

It is pretty well accepted in the investment world that all analysts’ estimates have been considerably off base. I think its about time that responsible reporting entered the arena. Are these dramatic low-ball expectations done on purpose to provide additional lift to stocks once numbers are release? It would not be an unfounded question but one that nobody can really answer.

It would be nice, given the horrid track record of analysts thus far, that when the media reports they should just report the earnings and forget about what the so called analysts thought would happen.

Case in point, CNBC emphasized in reporting AMEX 3rd quarter results with the accompanying headline, American Express Profit, Sales Beat Expectations while on the other hand, MarketWatch reports with a headline of American Express Profit Falls 21%. Now, which headline presents a better picture of the news these two outlets are reporting on? If your like me, the Marketwatch.com headline is the correct way to report these items, not the “pumped up” manner in which the CNBC shills spin the BAD news.

So, keeping it quick, it is imperative that investors look within the numbers and avoid the media spin when evaluating earnings because for the most part, while Q3 earnings are beating the street, they are still showing that there is a lot of fundamental weakness buried within those reports.

Who needs analysts anyways? They are consistently wrong by huge proportions showing how insignificant their work really is.

I find it truly astounding that much media attention has been given today to the “Street Beats” on the earnings front while the biggest “Street Failure” wasn’t given much traction today. That is the unfortunate fact that jobless claims rose, higher than expected. Yes, we have another first time jobless claim number today akin to everyone in the City of Fresno losing their job at the same time. 530,000 additional unemployed for the first time. Let’s applaud the poor earnings because they beat the estimates but shrug the fundamentals out of the way to keep the party going. That is what this greed stricken planet we live in has reverted to. I’m sure the half million newly unemployed will really give a shit that their employer “beat the estimate” thanks to the pink slip they were presented with.

[sn1p3r]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

I use my anecdotal, "brother can u spare a dime" evidence to determine the local situation. I usually get asked for money about once a month in the grocery parking lot. So far this month it's twice in the parking lot and once IN THE AISLE :eek: to me that is a noteworthy increase. I think I may start clipping coupons just so I have something to hand them

[Wild Style]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091022/..._fi/us_economy



What's next for those falling off the system, poverty? Crime?

A middle class, family man walked into a Nashville Verizon store, robbed the store and its patrons. Then went home and killed himself and left a note. He stated he lost his job, couldn't feed his family and didn't know what else to do. He apologized in his letter to the store and the victims.

Here in South Florida they knocked over a Brinks truck and got away. You are also hearing about more home break ins etc.

One morning I woke up to find ALL four of my wheels and tires gone and my car sitting on bricks. It looked like a scene from 1970s/80s NYC (I live in S. Florida). The cop who showed up on the scene exact words were "You are starting to see more and more crazy shit". Another cop I met told me "The government has to do something because these people are going to start eating each other". He then told me he is seeing more middle class (should I say formally middle class) people turning to crime.

My point is, when people are at the end of their rope, they are going to turn to crime, become destitute (homeless shelters here are over run) or losing their ever loving mind. I think a lot of mental issues are going to pop up to. You already had a lot of people who were high functioning but with some mental issues. Well when they lose everything the pressure pushes them over the edge.

[cjppjc]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

A middle class, family man walked into a Nashville Verizon store, robbed the store and its patrons. Then went home and killed himself and left a note. He stated he lost his job, couldn't feed his family and didn't know what else to do. He apologized in his letter to the store and the victims.

Here in South Florida they knocked over a Brinks truck and got away. You are also hearing about more home break ins etc.

One morning I woke up to find ALL four of my wheels and tires gone and my car sitting on bricks. It looked like a scene from 1970s/80s NYC (I live in S. Florida). The cop who showed up on the scene exact words were "You are starting to see more and more crazy shit". Another cop I met told me "The government has to do something because these people are going to start eating each other". He then told me he is seeing more middle class (should I say formally middle class) people turning to crime.

My point is, when people are at the end of their rope, they are going to turn to crime, become destitute (homeless shelters here are over run) or losing their ever loving mind. I think a lot of mental issues are going to pop up to. You already had a lot of people who were high functioning but with some mental issues. Well when they lose everything the pressure pushes them over the edge.

A couple of more posts like this and I'm going to have to agree with Quincy K.

Even though he kind of retracted his earlier prediction.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

I agree that a "fair wage for hard work" IS the issue in America today and an increase in wages and job security is the ONLY way out long term.

Private sector wages have been squeezed for 20 years by "free market" propoganda -

Exactly. My father and I are both career mechanical engineers in the midwest. In 1958, dad's salary was $20,000 (great money back then). Here's the handy inflation calculator at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

It says Dad's $20k would be more than$149,000 a year today. I assure you I don't make that salary; damn few engineers do.
We make less money than our parents did, by a long shot.

[Quincy K]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

A middle class, family man walked into a Nashville Verizon store, robbed the store and its patrons. Then went home and killed himself and left a note. He stated he lost his job, couldn't feed his family and didn't know what else to do. He apologized in his letter to the store and the victims.

Here in South Florida they knocked over a Brinks truck and got away. You are also hearing about more home break ins etc.

One morning I woke up to find ALL four of my wheels and tires gone and my car sitting on bricks. It looked like a scene from 1970s/80s NYC (I live in S. Florida). The cop who showed up on the scene exact words were "You are starting to see more and more crazy shit". Another cop I met told me "The government has to do something because these people are going to start eating each other". He then told me he is seeing more middle class (should I say formally middle class) people turning to crime.

My point is, when people are at the end of their rope, they are going to turn to crime, become destitute (homeless shelters here are over run) or losing their ever loving mind. I think a lot of mental issues are going to pop up to. You already had a lot of people who were high functioning but with some mental issues. Well when they lose everything the pressure pushes them over the edge.

The problem is when educated and intelligent people lose hope and morally don't give a fu_k.

The government has no plan for when these people start resorting to crime.

Statistically, you cannot catch these type of people and in large of enough groups(20 percent U-3 UE) they can ruin the fabric of society in their quest for survival and vindictive redemption.

How many of you guys here are willing to start over again if you felt that the Banksters stole all your sh_t?

Or would you go out and steal your sh_t back?

If it weren't for the continued extension of UE benefits, the sh_t would have already hit the fan here in the US.

[Rajiv]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

It says Dad's $20k would be more than$149,000 a year today. I assure you I don't make that salary; damn few engineers do.
We make less money than our parents did, by a long shot.

Actually the picture is far worse than that if you look at the Shadow Stats CPI calculator

Comparing Aug 1958 to Aug 2009, the $20,000 becomes $175,000 using BLS numbers, and using ShadowStats numbers, it is a whopping $500,000

Of course you have to factor in the after tax pay,

As close as I can calculate, if the gross salary was $20,000 in 1958, that was an after tax income of $13000 which would be an after tax income of $113,000 using BLS, and ~$340,000 using ShadowStats CPI

Surprisingly, at this income level, the tax paid is approximately the same.

For tax brackets since 1913 see - U.S. Federal Individual Income Tax Rates History, 1913-2009

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

I use my anecdotal, "brother can u spare a dime" evidence to determine the local situation. I usually get asked for money about once a month in the grocery parking lot. So far this month it's twice in the parking lot and once IN THE AISLE :eek: to me that is a noteworthy increase. I think I may start clipping coupons just so I have something to hand them

Very true. Here in NYC, most beggars tend to be insane. The number of articulate ones has shot up. They also usually stick to heavily trafficked areas. Now, I see them on side streets.

[flintlock]

Re: New jobless claims rise more than expected to 531K

People used to have family and community to fall back on in hard times. Will they still have it in this modern era? Doubt it.