Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

[goadam1]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Please don't use this site to sell me stuff.

Might very likely never charge for it. Our main aim is to maintain the quality and consistency our own trading and investing. Putting up a weekly analysis helps keep us disciplined. Otherwise, it's easy to slack off and miss important market developments from time to time - especially during quiet periods where not much seems to be happening (the present not being one of those).

Feel free to ignore us (is there not an ignore function available?) if reading our views in some way upsets your mental well-being. It will not offend us if you end up doing so.

We have stayed on the right side of the gold and oil market for years without paying very much attention to arguments for whether gold or oil ought to go up or down. We trade in and out of gold via the futures market and ETFs, but do, however, at all times own physical gold in an amount approximately equal to net worth as we consider it a more stable and reliable form of money than paper (we even measure our success in the markets in terms of ounces of gold). All one really needs for successful trading and investing is good chart analysis skills - aside from, obviously, proper risk management and the mental ability to enter and exit positions in accordance with what makes sense (as opposed to decision making based on what one's feelings may be saying - which is often quite the opposite).

[metalman]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

We have stayed on the right side of the gold and oil market for years without paying very much attention to arguments for whether gold or oil ought to go up or down. We trade in and out of gold...

hit the buzzer on this one.

ya see, we don't trade in and out of anything here.

no one makes money that way but the brokers and the snake oil trading 'system' salesmen.

spend your time looking for assets to not trade in and out of.

make money.

get a life.

ps. stop spamming itulip forums.

[metalman]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Needlessly pugnacious remark. Unimpressive. He could be described alternatively, as posting a much needed alternative opinion to the predominant thesis in this community [how about this insight - they've ALREADY been all over the YEN vs. USD trade and are NOW growing skeptical of it's further longevity? How unintelligent is it to ponder that possibility?]. Are you incapable of spotting when a trade (RIDE THAT USD DOWN ALL THE WAY TO HELL, BABY!) has become quite remarkably crowded? Stow the pugnacious comments and permit the opposing thesis to post without such inanities as below. Yeesh. What a frickin bore.

nice.

read the past 98,475,468 clever predictions here by 'challengers' over the past 9 yrs promising a resurgent bonar.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

if it's a short term call, no one here gives a shit. we trade for sport, not for income.

[Dr.No]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Please don't use this site to sell me stuff.

What are we trying to sell? We don't charge for our analysis. For all the years we've been at this, we've never charged for our analysis. This is bordering on silly, but then that - perhaps - well describes a substantial percentage of the human population.

[metalman]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

What are we trying to sell? We don't charge for our analysis. For all the years we've been at this, we've never charged for our analysis. This is bordering on silly, but then that - perhaps - well describes a substantial percentage of the human population.

you've earned a 1 star rating for hijacking rajiv's thread.

checked the spam policy?



go ahead. link back to your site one more time. see what happens...

[meechpod]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

The real story in this altercation has a good deal less to do with traders of investments, vs. long term holders than you wish to represent - Contrary to your fond conceits, you do not "speak for everyone". If you really did speak for everyone in this community, every last scrap of liveliness in the disagreements around here would be wrung out of the conversations.

nice.

read the past 98,475,468 clever predictions here by 'challengers' over the past 9 yrs promising a resurgent bonar.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

if it's a short term call, no one here gives a shit. we trade for sport, not for income.

[meechpod]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Horseshit. He's posted another view of a potential scenario for the dollar. You are the one doing the hijacking with all this "toe the iTulip line" BS. He is on topic. You are off topic.

you've earned a 1 star rating for hijacking rajiv's thread. ...

[Dr.No]

Rarely have we come across more narrow-minded thinking (except among religious fundamentalists)

hit the buzzer on this one.

ya see, we don't trade in and out of anything here.

no one makes money that way but the brokers and the snake oil trading 'system' salesmen.

spend your time looking for assets to not trade in and out of.

make money.

get a life.

ps. stop spamming itulip forums.

You left out "but [we] do, however, at all times own physical gold in an amount approximately equal to net worth."

That is not trading.

Many people fail at trading due to trouble managing their emotions. It is not so that it is impossible to be a successful trader in the long run. There are too many examples to the contrary. There are many ways to do it well, but it requires discipline, which the majority of people in the market lack.

Perhaps you attempted trading, failed, and somehow came to the conclusion that it is not possible to do so successfully. However, that would only be because you were not good enough at it, not because it is not possible to do so successfully and with consistency.

Most people in the market only manage to make money if they sit on something long enough regardless of what happens in the market and it turns out they put their money in something that indeed went up. There are, however, other ways of being successful in the market. We do both. We hold some long term investments, and also hold trading positions - usually for several weeks to months, occasionally years.

You state that "we don't trade here in and out of anything here."
Much of the discussion in Itulip forums center around what is going up, what is going down, where it is likely to go to and why. Clearly, a large percentage of people here do not just buy and then never sell anything.

We've contributed very few select items of analysis (three) that appeared they might be of usefulness to a fair amount of Itulip members. However, you have managed to get to the point of stating that no one here trades anything (presumably thereby making the market developments in gold, oil, and the dollar irrelevant to everyone here) and that our analysis is a sales ploy even though we have done this for years, have never charged, and don't have any plans to start charging.

Quite likely, many here find market analysis useful. I doubt every person here only cares about fundamental analysis. We have a big picture fundamental view as well, and mainly look for opportunities that align with our macro view. However, we only get into something when the actual developments in the market confirm that view.

You may be thinking such an approach is ridiculous - why look to see whether what is actually happening in the market bears resemblance to one's belief about what should happen - yet is it possible you could be mistaken and not everyone here shares your view regarding this?

Unfortunate for your sake that you apparently have had some bad experiences in your life with regard to the markets, but sad that you feel the need to attempt biting our heads off in response to your own misfortune.

Random chitchat and musings - often based on little of substance - makes for valuable contributions, but careful chart analysis that has led to consistent gains for years through an enormous range of different market conditions is spam, snake-oil, etc.? 'Ya see'? No, we don't see that, and we doubt everyone shares your view.

However, if it really is so that Itulip worries that any of its members will end up considering alternative viewpoints, and that the only types of messages that are acceptable are those that conform to Janszen's own view or, if not, display little careful thinking or analysis, we will not care to post any more messages with information that clearly would be useful to many members (though useless and upsetting to you).

Sort of sad if that indeed is the case.

Is it really against Itulip policy for members to put their thoughts and analysis on their own website? Are thoughts less valid if they appear on a website? Attempt to sign up at our website. There is no signup. There is no login. There is no fee to see our analysis. There is not plan to charge a fee. Check back in a few months if you like. There will still not be a fee. System salesmen? We don't have any system to sell. We trade and invest based on a set of rules and guidelines we've developed over the years that requires judgement based on experience and our current marco view. We would not know where to begin to try to automate it in some sort of system.

Rarely have we come across more narrow-minded thinking than what you've just displayed. Almost as if you were defending your religion. We understand that people do not in fact have free will (though most believe they do), so we don't blame you for your mistaken views. We know you cannot help it, and simply see it as a fact of life, however regrettable.

http://people.consolidated.net/gptra...ssible_bdp.pdf

[Rajiv]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Metalman -- since you brought up my name.

I did not consider Dr. Norman's response a spam -- because it was just pointing to a chart that he had done that showed that Sumitomo's analysis may not be necessarily true for the short run, and if anybody was to base a short term trade on that particular news item, they may well be in for a nasty surprise.

My own opinion on the matter, is that short term the dollar may well rally -- particularly as credit unwinds further -- I do not think that the deflationary trend is over. There is still too much credit in the system.

But in the longer term, I do believe that the dollar is toast. Ones long term business decisions should perhaps be made keeping that in mind.

Just my two cents worth (not worth much these days!)

[Dr.No]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Horseshit. He's posted another view of a potential scenario for the dollar. You are the one doing the hijacking with all this "toe the iTulip line" BS. He is on topic. You are off topic.

Thank you.

[metalman]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Metalman -- since you brought up my name.

I did not consider Dr. Norman's response a spam -- because it was just pointing to a chart that he had done that showed that Sumitomo's analysis may not be necessarily true for the short run, and if anybody was to base a short term trade on that particular news item, they may well be in for a nasty surprise.

his comment isn't spam... linking back to his web site makes it spam.

My own opinion on the matter, is that short term the dollar may well rally -- particularly as credit unwinds further -- I do not think that the deflationary trend is over. There is still too much credit in the system.

U.S. government currency devaluation to escape a liquidity trap in 1933
Macro conditions: GDP fell 25% since 1930
M3 money supply: off 40%
Unemployment: 24%
Banking system: Broken
Dollar devaluation against gold: 72%
Result: 30% inflation over six months (red line)

[meechpod]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Rajiv - You raise the caliber of many discussions in this community to a high level, and your disinterested and determinedly non-partisan spirit of inquiry is exemplary of the very best of this place.

Metalman -- since you brought up my name.

I did not consider Dr. Norman's response a spam -- because it was just pointing to a chart that he had done that showed that Sumitomo's analysis may not be necessarily true for the short run, and if anybody was to base a short term trade on that particular news item, they may well be in for a nasty surprise.

My own opinion on the matter, is that short term the dollar may well rally -- particularly as credit unwinds further -- I do not think that the deflationary trend is over. There is still too much credit in the system.

But in the longer term, I do believe that the dollar is toast. Ones long term business decisions should perhaps be made keeping that in mind.

Just my two cents worth (not worth much these days!)

[jiimbergin]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

Horseshit. He's posted another view of a potential scenario for the dollar. You are the one doing the hijacking with all this "toe the iTulip line" BS. He is on topic. You are off topic.

MM, I am sorry, but you are the one who has hijacked this thread. Unlike some of the others we have had, Dr. No does not seem, at least to me, to be pushing his site and agenda. He keeps his net worth all in gold. His site has been around for a long time and seems consistent. We do have traders among us. Bart is a trader and we all miss him right now while he is on leave of absence.

This is one time I believe you are wrong.

[goadam1]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

MM, I am sorry, but you are the one who has hijacked this thread. Unlike some of the others we have had, Dr. No does not seem, at least to me, to be pushing his site and agenda. He keeps his net worth all in gold. His site has been around for a long time and seems consistent. We do have traders among us. Bart is a trader and we all miss him right now while he is on leave of absence.

This is one time I believe you are wrong.

Bart is a trader. Maybe the crazy market broke him.

Dr No is pimping. I don't like it.

[goadam1]

Re: Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says

his comment isn't spam... linking back to his web site makes it spam.







U.S. government currency devaluation to escape a liquidity trap in 1933
Macro conditions: GDP fell 25% since 1930
M3 money supply: off 40%
Unemployment: 24%
Banking system: Broken
Dollar devaluation against gold: 72%
Result: 30% inflation over six months (red line)

And the resulting economic bump took 3 years to peak. It's just a gut feeling but I think we are seeing the peak of the stimulus right now.