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  • Can You Feel It?

    October 16, 2009

    First Stimulus Jobs Numbers Are Released

    By MICHAEL COOPER

    Businesses that got stimulus contracts directly from the federal government reported creating or saving 30,383 jobs so far, according to data published Thursday by the Obama administration.

    The jobs reported on Thursday represent the first time that the government has reported actual figures as opposed to estimates. But they come from a small slice of a sliver of the program: the roughly $16 billion worth of stimulus contracts awarded directly by federal agencies, of which about $2.2 billion has been spent so far.

    The $787 billion stimulus program is divided among tax cuts, fiscal relief for the states, and government spending on infrastructure and other projects that mostly flows through the states — not from the federal government. Jobs figures from businesses that received contracts or grants from the states will not be publicly reported until the end of the month.

    By themselves, the new job figures are unlikely to shed much light on the question of how well the stimulus program is accomplishing the goal that President Obama set: saving or creating 3.5 million jobs over two years. The rising unemployment rate, which is now at 9.8 percent, has fueled criticism in recent weeks that the stimulus program is not creating enough jobs.

    The data posted Thursday on the stimulus Web site was preliminary; recipients can still change errors, and government officials said that based on past experiences with publicizing contract data, there were likely to be many. But the Web site is part of a pledge by the Obama administration and Congress to make the stimulus spending transparent. It allows people to see how many contracts were awarded in their states, even their local areas, and to count how many jobs the recipients of those contracts reported creating or saving.

    White House officials were clearly sensitive to the gulf between the 30,383 jobs that were reported saved or created so far, and their goal of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs. Jared Bernstein, the chief economist for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who is in charge of overseeing the stimulus, issued a statement noting that “it is too soon to draw any global conclusions from this partial and preliminary data.”

    But he said that the job report exceeded the administration’s expectations so far.

    “All signs — from private estimates to this fragmentary data — point to the conclusion that the Recovery Act did indeed create or save about 1 million jobs in its first seven months, a much needed lift in a very difficult period for our economy,” he said.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/us/16stimulus.html?hp

    Officially 263,000 jobs were lost in September, 4.1 Million in 2009 todate, and 7.2 Million since the Great Recession began. That's officially....

  • #2
    Re: Can You Feel It?

    Only $25 million dollars to create each job...not unreasonable.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Can You Feel It?

      given the way the presses are running, i would guess more like $25,000 in
      'real' dollar terms nowadays.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Can You Feel It?

        Originally posted by don View Post
        Businesses that got stimulus contracts directly from the federal government reported creating or saving 30,383 jobs so far, according to data published Thursday by the Obama administration.
        Yeah -- that was my fault. I got a $300k grant from NIST to be spread over 2 years, funded by the ARRA. I had to file a job creation report on the ARRA website earlier this month. The thing is, I can report direct impact on employment at my company ("my" in the sense that I work for it; not "mine" in the sense that I own it), but I don't have a good way to model the flow-down after the money is spent. For instance, $300k gets spent on a fraction of the time of about three engineers here; I reported 1 job created because the ARRA reporting guidelines tell you to count up fractional people and report an integer. However, the NIST grant was to produce hardware, and a lot of the money is going to be spent on material costs (it takes me roughly $70k to run an experimental batch of semiconductor wafers). I don't really have a good way of capturing how my order with a semiconductor foundry affects their employment, nor how the wages my guys spend impact the local community. So all I reported was the direct impact (three guys at about 1/3 time each). But I can see how there would be a gulf between the direct impact here, and the wild-assed guess made by an economist who might assume something for knock-on effects.

        That said, if you want to create jobs, you should probably spend public money on labor-intensive stimulus projects rather than material-intensive R&D projects. (Not that I'm giving the ARRA money back.)

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