Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

One may venture into analytic/qualitartive "evidence" but ultimately the answer is as rooted as the simplicity of the law of thermodynamics. More Gold discovered does not equal more gold -it just means more gold discovered -and its rarity - has been truthfully classified as a precious metal for millenniums.

So in a sense -all is ruse - and one must be wary. Fiat currency will come to an end -but as are the limits of human endeavor -it will be always stretched and tested. Fiat currency by definition is a promise. And slowly but surely -as the saying goes - I turned to the door!

[Dr.No]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

Is this a recommendation to buy?

One may venture into analytic/qualitartive "evidence" but ultimately the answer is as rooted as the simplicity of the law of thermodynamics. More Gold discovered does not equal more gold -it just means more gold discovered -and its rarity - has been truthfully classified as a precious metal for millenniums.

So in a sense -all is ruse - and one must be wary. Fiat currency will come to an end -but as are the limits of human endeavor -it will be always stretched and tested. Fiat currency by definition is a promise. And slowly but surely -as the saying goes - I turned to the door!

Rather than count one's wealth in terms of dollars, yen, or euros, it makes sense to measure it in ounces of gold or silver, or - for at least the next several years - in barrels of oil.

[skyson]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

I don't worry too much about what the fair price might be.

Though by my calculation, taking into account the number of ounces of gold owned by the federal reserve and the net foreign debt obligations of the federal government, a fair price seems more likely to be between $12000 and $18000, depending on whether one counts U.S. agency debt (mainly mortgages) held abroad as part of federal debt - which it in effect is now that it is more explicitly 'guaranteed' by the federal government -

My primary focus from month to month is the intermediate and primary trend of the gold price:

do you care to show your analysis? i browsed your website, but too much to read in a short time. do you mind point to your particular article?

[Dr.No]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

here is an argument by Paul van Eeden:

http://www.gold-speculator.com/paul-...-now-what.html

Van Eden thinks regular inflation is the main factor that is driving the price of gold up? Not the net foreign debt of the U.S. compared with U.S. holdings of gold?

We'll stick with our gold exit point defined as a weekly close at $970 or lower.

[metalman]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

[quote=Dr.No;129194

We'll stick with our gold exit point defined as a weekly close at $970 or lower.[/quote]

'we' are a community called itulip... of which you are either a member or a guest.

which 'we' are you talking about?

[audrey_girl]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

Is this a recommendation to buy?

hi - if you thinking of buying - you may want to check this out:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1671...d?source=yahoo

pretty interesting blog -

got a nice little ten year comparison of DJIA, Oil, and Gold

here is another one:

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/1001.html




regarding Dr. No's point:



from: http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0916.html

unfortunately looks like we are about to have a weimar moment

[jpatter666]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

'we' are a community called itulip... of which you are either a member or a guest.

which 'we' are you talking about?

Come on, even *I* got what Dr No meant. They (see?) are an organization (whether that's a group of one or more I haven't asked nor care to know).

[skyson]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

Come on, even *I* got what Dr No meant. They (see?) are an organization (whether that's a group of one or more I haven't asked nor care to know).

well, someone has this guard dog mentality. have you ever seen signs in the backyard saying:"beware of dogs!"?

guard dog could be good or bad, depending how you want to run your party. if you want an "exclusive few" party, the guard dogs are must haves! if you want a "happy together" party, then better put them on leash.;)

Dr. No, please see my question of post #18. i would like to see your price analysis.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

audrey_girl - I loved that slide when you first posted it ...

Disturbing Trends.jpg

One could argue ... that the oligarchs who were lending the Gov't money out of thin air and charging interest ... were piling their profits right back into gold (even if by accident)

[audrey_girl]

Re: Gold fair price - $815 an ounce

audrey_girl - I loved that slide when you first posted it ...

[ATTACH]2346[/ATTACH]

One could argue ... that the oligarchs who were lending the Gov't money out of thin air and charging interest ... were piling their profits right back into gold (even if by accident)

hmm interesting correlation - missed it

thanks

if you like the chart then I recommend you reading his book:

http://www.amazon.com/ABCs-Gold-Inve...6092473&sr=1-1


I read the first edition, when I starting going down this path many years ago.

In this book, and with each edition he has this chart.

The numbers as you can see have been changing exponentially.

One of the best things about the book is its introduction. Kosares was a gold dealer in Colorado in the 1970s and one day a Vietnamese boat refugee came into his office. The refugee was lucky enough to have gotten out before the Communist takeover and was able to smuggle a small amount of gold out of the country, which he converted to dollars and was able to start a small business to provide for his family. If the refugee had South Vietnamese currency or bonds - well, you know the story.