"Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

[Dr.No]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

As with many Itulip polls, go with the one with the least picks.

No 'wisdom of the Itulip crowd'?

[charliebrown]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

where is that salty dog (nero) i miss him.
looks like he is right about the big stock rally. I'm still holding onto my reverse etf's and getting creamed. I keep waiting for that big correction that never happens. I became a short term bull in July, and started buying long efa shares, and writing otm calls on my reverse's. figuring to have a falling dollar tail wind. It is only 5% of my holdings, and has a trailing stop. The higher this stupid stock market goes, the more likely we are going to have a repeat of Oct 1987. Today's run up to 10,000 was made with a yawn's worth of volume. Once the hot money decides the game is over there will be no buyer's left except the shorts. Value investors are scared stiff.

November will be an interesting month. Supposedly this is the last month of the fed buying of treasuries. Think the markets can handle north of 4% 10 year rates? I still don't understand how money markets are working who is willing to hold cash for 0%? Check out t.rowe price. all money markets they have muni, prime and treas all have 0.0% yield. I'm sure other mutual fund companies are in a similar straight. Vanguard prime money is .18%

What happens in Nov, December when y-o-y energy prices print with a big number. It just has to happen. What was oil in Dec 08 50? can't remember right now, but if Oil sticks at $75, then were talking 50% increase in crude. This is a major driver of headline CPI. Your .5% bank CD rate is not going to look so good against 5% annual inflation rate. (Assuming energy is 10% of CPI) Of course food is trending higher too, and energy is a major input cost of almost every thing we buy too.

I really think we are going to see a repeat of last fall or spring. Some event is going to trigger a big take down to S&P into the high 700's, then we will see the dollar have another dead cat bounce into the low 80's and gold go back down to say 920 - 870 range, before heading north again. Depending upon the nature and ensuing events of my predicted crash, the high 700's could give way to testing of the March lows and EJ's S&P 600 number.

[touchring]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

The higher this stupid stock market goes, the more likely we are going to have a repeat of Oct 1987.

It will come when the dollar devalues 10% overnight, and every American starts emptying their savings account (whatever savings left) and convert the money into Euro or gold. After that, the Fed will jack up interest rates 5000%.

[xela]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

Thanks for the detailed answer. If I understod you correctly, you are using little leverage with tight stops.
I personally am wondering whether to use quite some after the correction of this wave, as it should be quite a violent one.

[Dr.No]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

where is that salty dog (nero) i miss him.
looks like he is right about the big stock rally. I'm still holding onto my reverse etf's and getting creamed. I keep waiting for that big correction that never happens. I became a short term bull in July, and started buying long efa shares, and writing otm calls on my reverse's. figuring to have a falling dollar tail wind. It is only 5% of my holdings, and has a trailing stop. The higher this stupid stock market goes, the more likely we are going to have a repeat of Oct 1987. Today's run up to 10,000 was made with a yawn's worth of volume. Once the hot money decides the game is over there will be no buyer's left except the shorts. Value investors are scared stiff.

November will be an interesting month. Supposedly this is the last month of the fed buying of treasuries. Think the markets can handle north of 4% 10 year rates? I still don't understand how money markets are working who is willing to hold cash for 0%? Check out t.rowe price. all money markets they have muni, prime and treas all have 0.0% yield. I'm sure other mutual fund companies are in a similar straight. Vanguard prime money is .18%

What happens in Nov, December when y-o-y energy prices print with a big number. It just has to happen. What was oil in Dec 08 50? can't remember right now, but if Oil sticks at $75, then were talking 50% increase in crude. This is a major driver of headline CPI. Your .5% bank CD rate is not going to look so good against 5% annual inflation rate. (Assuming energy is 10% of CPI) Of course food is trending higher too, and energy is a major input cost of almost every thing we buy too.

I really think we are going to see a repeat of last fall or spring. Some event is going to trigger a big take down to S&P into the high 700's, then we will see the dollar have another dead cat bounce into the low 80's and gold go back down to say 920 - 870 range, before heading north again. Depending upon the nature and ensuing events of my predicted crash, the high 700's could give way to testing of the March lows and EJ's S&P 600 number.

A drop in gold down to 920-870 would constitute a failed breakout from its 19 month base. It would be gold's first failed breakout from any base since its 2001 bottom. We don't want to bet on this being gold's first failed breakout of the entire bull market. A weekly close at 970 or lower, and we will expect further declines. We just don't see that as likely, though it is of course conceivable.

[charliebrown]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

i dont have my own website, and am just a part time speculator so treat my opinion as that. my price guess on gold is from my simpleton model which has worked for the past 10 years, but we may be in a new era now. Equally likely you will be right. I hope that I'm right, because I have big limit orders on GLD at 920. Oh and buy the way, I use GLD as a proxy for the spot price of gold. Not perfect, but I dont' have access to gold spot data. Many times GLD trails the spot price, so my range could mean a spot price of 940 - 890

[charliebrown]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

This is similar to what I am doing. I have a core position that is not for sale, and a trading position. On the dips, I add to both the core and trading position.
For the most part on the trading position I own GLD, and write OTM calls on it. I usually write to get about 1% per month. I am not using leverage.

core postion consists of CEF and bullion.

I would like to establish a position in GDX, but am waiting for some kind of market correction where GDX may take a big hit.

[Dr.No]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

i dont have my own website, and am just a part time speculator so treat my opinion as that. my price guess on gold is from my simpleton model which has worked for the past 10 years, but we may be in a new era now. Equally likely you will be right. I hope that I'm right, because I have big limit orders on GLD at 920. Oh and buy the way, I use GLD as a proxy for the spot price of gold. Not perfect, but I dont' have access to gold spot data. Many times GLD trails the spot price, so my range could mean a spot price of 940 - 890

It would be better to go by the actual gold price as that is what most major players in the market look at when they make their trading decisions.

[Dr.No]

Where to view live gold price, silver, HUI mining index, currencies, base metals - all on one page.

i dont have my own website, and am just a part time speculator so treat my opinion as that. my price guess on gold is from my simpleton model which has worked for the past 10 years, but we may be in a new era now. Equally likely you will be right. I hope that I'm right, because I have big limit orders on GLD at 920. Oh and buy the way, I use GLD as a proxy for the spot price of gold. Not perfect, but I dont' have access to gold spot data. Many times GLD trails the spot price, so my range could mean a spot price of 940 - 890

The discrepancy between GLD and the actual gold price keeps growing because of GLD management and storage fees. I believe it lags gold by an additional 0.5-0.7 percent or so each year.

You can see the live spot gold price at http://www.normannfinancial.com/mark...ve_Charts.html (just scroll down and/or to the right to see all the charts) along with live gold prices in many other currencies, as well as the live silver price, HUI gold mining index, South African gold mining index, the dollar index, U.S. equity indices, base metals, and currency rates.

[Dr.No]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

It appears the second survey option was correct - spot gold corrected to $1025 before surging above $1100

View Poll Results: Will gold surge higher right away, correct to near $1000, or fail and plunge to $900 or lower?
Gold will surge higher very soon **without** first having a meaningful correction back to around $1000 (say to between $1025 and $980)		33	49.25%
Gold will correct to somewhere between $1025 and $980 before heading above $1100		26	38.81%
Gold will fail and break back below $980		8	11.94%

I believe gold has just seen a genuine breakout and that it will be trading above $1300 by some time in the spring of 2010.

Final target perhaps somewhere between $5000 and $20000 per ounce (could be higher depending on the level of madness of Bernanke and the Federal Government).

I increased my gold holdings this week based on the breakout last week.

Dr. No

http://www.normannfinancial.com/mark...0Analysis.html

"Gold appears to have broken out of its 19 month long base with a weekly close at $1048. Gold has expected support between $1033.90 and $978. A weekly close below $970, while not expected, would indicate a failed breakout. We expect gold to move much higher over the coming months and years, and are adding to our long gold position at the market open next week."

[loweyecue]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

Can someone explain why GLD and GTU seem to part ways every now and then? I thought GTU was based mostly on bullion and GLD is not, but GLD seems to go up more than GTU when godl spot goes up? I am betting against GLD because of everything I have read here and I recently bought a put to that effect. But it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but up at this time.

[jiimbergin]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

Can someone explain why GLD and GTU seem to part ways every now and then? I thought GTU was based mostly on bullion and GLD is not, but GLD seems to go up more than GTU when godl spot goes up? I am betting against GLD because of everything I have read here and I recently bought a put to that effect. But it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but up at this time.

There is a premium (or discount) on the GTU to the Net Assest Value. When the premium is high there tends to be more active sellers which drives the premium down and just the opposite when the premium is low. Although I never sell, I do buy when the premium is low. GLD sells very close to NAV. I am sure someone else can explain this more clearly than I have.
jim

[GRG55]

Re: "Gold has broken $1034, and we expect it to go up substantially over the next several years"

Can someone explain why GLD and GTU seem to part ways every now and then? I thought GTU was based mostly on bullion and GLD is not, but GLD seems to go up more than GTU when godl spot goes up? I am betting against GLD because of everything I have read here and I recently bought a put to that effect. But it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but up at this time.

You are aware that GTU is a closed end trust, not an ETF? That is the reason for the difference in how they trade.