Tweet
That’s the take from Deutsche Bank’s new report, “The Peak Oil Market.” In a nutshell: The oil industry chronically under invests in finding new supplies, exemplified both by Big Oil’s recent love of share buybacks and under-investment by big oil-producing nations. That spells a looming supply crunch.
That will send oil to $175 a barrel by 2016—and will simultaneously put the final nail in oil’s coffin and send prices plummeting back to $70 by 2030. That’s because there’s an even more important “peak” moment on the horizon: A global peak in oil demand.
Hmm, I knew a VP of Deutsche Bank, and in the summer of 2008 he insisted there was no problem and that the "financial system was fundamentally sound" and that I did't know what I was talking about...
I guess what they mean is oil will about triple in cost and they are not taking dollar depreciation into account? If the dollar does decline by half, might we be looking at more like nominally $300 a barrel oil by 2016?
I don't think simply switching to electric cars will solve this problem because it takes 15 years to replace the automobile fleet, we don't even have a good prototype electric car yet, a lot of vehicles require liquid fuels to run, and the entire suburban layout of the US would have to be redone to minimize driving distance.
The general rule of thumb I read years ago is that serious damage to the US economy starts at $70 per barrel, and serious damage to the Japanese economy starts at $140.:eek:
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalca...che-bank-says/
That will send oil to $175 a barrel by 2016—and will simultaneously put the final nail in oil’s coffin and send prices plummeting back to $70 by 2030. That’s because there’s an even more important “peak” moment on the horizon: A global peak in oil demand.
Hmm, I knew a VP of Deutsche Bank, and in the summer of 2008 he insisted there was no problem and that the "financial system was fundamentally sound" and that I did't know what I was talking about...
I guess what they mean is oil will about triple in cost and they are not taking dollar depreciation into account? If the dollar does decline by half, might we be looking at more like nominally $300 a barrel oil by 2016?
I don't think simply switching to electric cars will solve this problem because it takes 15 years to replace the automobile fleet, we don't even have a good prototype electric car yet, a lot of vehicles require liquid fuels to run, and the entire suburban layout of the US would have to be redone to minimize driving distance.
The general rule of thumb I read years ago is that serious damage to the US economy starts at $70 per barrel, and serious damage to the Japanese economy starts at $140.:eek:
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalca...che-bank-says/