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Paul Desmond of Lowry's Reports in Feb. 2002 published a report: Identifying Bear Market Bottoms and New Bull Markets I have a copy of the report in PDF (I don't recall where I got it on the web) but cannot find where anyone interested in this can get it, except for $10 on Lowry's website apparently printed. http://www.lowrysreports.com/research_studies.cfm#dow
At http://www.thestreet.com/markets/mar.../10269345.html .which is an interview with Desmond. at the bottom of the first page: Editor's note: Lowry's defines a 90% downside day as a session with 90% downside volume in conjunction with 90% downside price action, meaning 90% (or more) of the price movement of all stocks on a given exchange is lower.)
In the report Lowry said, To formulate our definition of panic selling, we reviewed the daily history of both the price changes and the volume of trading for every stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange over a period of 69 years, from 1933 to present. We broke the volume of trading down into two parts � Upside (buyers) Volume and Downside (sellers) Volume. We also compiled the full and fractional dollars of price change for all NYSE-listed stocks that advanced each day (Points Gained), as well as the full and fractional dollars of price change for all NYSE-listed stocks that declined each day (Points Lost). These four daily totals � Upside Volume and Points Gained, Downside Volume and Points Lost � represent the basic components of Demand and Supply, and have been an integral part of the Lowry Analysis since 1938. (Note: an industrious statistician can compile these totals from the NYSE stock tables in
each day�s Wall Street Journal.) Emphasis Jim's
He went on, In reviewing these numbers, we found that almost all periods of significant market decline in the past 69 years have contained at least one, and usually more than one, day of panic selling in which Downside Volume equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Upside Volume plus Downside Volume, and Points Lost equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Points Gained plus Points Lost.
Yesterday was a 90% down day in the volume numbers if my spreadsheet has no errors.
I am way from industrious if given the task of calculating Total Points Gained and Total Points Lost on the NYSEfrom the daily WSJ.
THE QUESTION: Does anyone know where one can find such numbers that would show the total Points Gained and total Points Lost daily from the NYSE? I guess one could get them at Lowry's Reports, but I am too cheap to subscribe.
Without those numbers, one cannot perform Desmond's calculations. Of course the volumn data are avialable--I use the online WSJ.
Desmond also said, A single, isolated 90% Downside Day does not, by itself, have any long term trend implications, since they often occur at the end of short term corrections. But, because they show that investors are in a mood to panic, even an isolated 90% Downside Day should be viewed as an important warning that more could follow.
The only thing I can make from just using the available volumn data about yesterday's 90.08% down volume is it might be a semi-important warning that more could follow. Thus it is of highly questionable value.
Desmond's work is interesting and perhaps has some real usefulness in identifying bottoms. I personally do not think the equity markets are about to bottom. My purpose it to learn if the data on total Points Gained and total Points Lost exist so that I can personally perform Desmond's calculations.
If there is an answer please post it.
Thanks
Jim
At http://www.thestreet.com/markets/mar.../10269345.html .which is an interview with Desmond. at the bottom of the first page: Editor's note: Lowry's defines a 90% downside day as a session with 90% downside volume in conjunction with 90% downside price action, meaning 90% (or more) of the price movement of all stocks on a given exchange is lower.)
In the report Lowry said, To formulate our definition of panic selling, we reviewed the daily history of both the price changes and the volume of trading for every stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange over a period of 69 years, from 1933 to present. We broke the volume of trading down into two parts � Upside (buyers) Volume and Downside (sellers) Volume. We also compiled the full and fractional dollars of price change for all NYSE-listed stocks that advanced each day (Points Gained), as well as the full and fractional dollars of price change for all NYSE-listed stocks that declined each day (Points Lost). These four daily totals � Upside Volume and Points Gained, Downside Volume and Points Lost � represent the basic components of Demand and Supply, and have been an integral part of the Lowry Analysis since 1938. (Note: an industrious statistician can compile these totals from the NYSE stock tables in
each day�s Wall Street Journal.) Emphasis Jim's
He went on, In reviewing these numbers, we found that almost all periods of significant market decline in the past 69 years have contained at least one, and usually more than one, day of panic selling in which Downside Volume equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Upside Volume plus Downside Volume, and Points Lost equaled 90.0% or more of the total of Points Gained plus Points Lost.
Yesterday was a 90% down day in the volume numbers if my spreadsheet has no errors.
I am way from industrious if given the task of calculating Total Points Gained and Total Points Lost on the NYSEfrom the daily WSJ.
THE QUESTION: Does anyone know where one can find such numbers that would show the total Points Gained and total Points Lost daily from the NYSE? I guess one could get them at Lowry's Reports, but I am too cheap to subscribe.
Without those numbers, one cannot perform Desmond's calculations. Of course the volumn data are avialable--I use the online WSJ.
Desmond also said, A single, isolated 90% Downside Day does not, by itself, have any long term trend implications, since they often occur at the end of short term corrections. But, because they show that investors are in a mood to panic, even an isolated 90% Downside Day should be viewed as an important warning that more could follow.
The only thing I can make from just using the available volumn data about yesterday's 90.08% down volume is it might be a semi-important warning that more could follow. Thus it is of highly questionable value.
Desmond's work is interesting and perhaps has some real usefulness in identifying bottoms. I personally do not think the equity markets are about to bottom. My purpose it to learn if the data on total Points Gained and total Points Lost exist so that I can personally perform Desmond's calculations.
If there is an answer please post it.
Thanks
Jim
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