Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Show me one example of Israel conducting a pre-emptive military strike operation where it was discussed and speculated on so widely on the front pages of international newspapers and other public media beforehand.

Are you kidding me...your tea leaves are newspaper headlines...

My tea leaves are a single nations survival...and millions of lives !
Nuclear_explosion.gif

[gorkypark]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The $USD may sell off, after the dust has settled..

BUT I think the ARABS would BUY $USD safety assets faster than Bill Clinton chases White House interns...be real !:p

Bwahaahaahaa..... they have been accepting our paper since 1971 because they could exchange it for gold on comex. your scenario would increase likelihood of gold backwardation - then watch out for homebound frn tsunami

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Gorkypark...re read my postings..you failed to realise that I did say an IRAN event would be gold BULLISH !

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Are you kidding me...your tea leaves are newspaper headlines...

My tea leaves are a single nations survival...and millions of lives !
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You didn't answer the question...

[dummass]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Where have you been, since March 09, the FED has purchased 50% of the own sh*T !

1) I was hoping for an informed opinion, not a glib response.

2) The fed has claimed to purchase $300 Billion since March http://www.advisor.ca/advisors/news/...18_145541_5072

3) Fred's post would suggest a purchase of almost $300 Billion in one month.

4) I've heard stories of the Fed purchasing Ts from primary dealers several weeks after a completed action, but have not seen hard numbers.

5) My question stands.

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

You didn't answer the question...

Sorry, I meant to say "ITS DIFFERENT THIS TIME !"..

The previous TRENDs wont be correlated to this situation.

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

I was hoping for an informed opinion, not a glib response.

Sorry, Interest rates have stayed low, or even fallen since march. This is because the FED has been BUYING. China is buying mostly short term bonds and no agency debt ( is FRE and FNM debt)

The FED is 80% of MBS market
The FED is 50% of the LONG BOND market.
The FED is 100% of agency debt ( I think..)

[dummass]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Sorry, Interest rates have stayed low, or even fallen since march. This is because the FED has been BUYING. China is buying mostly short term bonds and no agency debt ( is FRE and FNM debt)

The FED is 80% of MBS market
The FED is 50% of the LONG BOND market.
The FED is 100% of agency debt ( I think..)

You missed the point:

We are talking about US Treasury Securities of $276 Billion in the month of Aug. 2009.

My question was directed to Fred.

[jk]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Other than Karzai and his cronies do you think the average Afghan really wants western military powers in the country?

i'm not sure that the 50% of the population that happens to be female is eager to see the taliban return to power.

[FRED]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Hows this...

IRAN is bombed...massive flight to safety
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...88&postcount=1

$USD Spikes..
$SOCKS fall 30%
$USA BONDS are purchased at a rapid pace ... all USA debt demands are sold with little problem ! Easy Peasy !

$GOLD sells off 10%, a great buy SETUP.
$OIL hits $200

A recession is secured for 2010 .....more money printing...the cycle continues !

The U.S. only engages in war if it has a clear ten to one advantage in men and materiel over its adversary. It has learned that even so, victory is elusive.

If the Iraq war took the dollar down from over 110 to 70, how far will an Iran invasion take it?

And how long until the entire empire is sunk, and its currency, too? Ask the Brits.

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The U.S. only engages in war if it has a clear ten to one advantage in men and materiel over its adversary. It has learned that even so, victory is elusive.

It wont be the US,,,who starts it... however its more than likely US will join it !

[goadam1]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

It goes on until the new green economy kicks in. You know, the electric cars out of detroit running on the new energy grid. Also, we won't import oil when we ride all the new light rail we built. That's what we spent the stimulus money on, right?

Plus we have all the savings from updating our healthcare system and cutting excessive government and the peace dividend from winning in Iraq.

As simply as we can lay our our case, debt issuance is rising rapidly:

$557 billion in Aug. 2009 alone, most of it short term:

Yet net foreign purchases are a fraction of that total issuance, totaling $281 billion for the entire year:

How long can this go on?

[FRED]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

WHO BOUGHT THE OTHER HALF? THE FED? ZOMBY BANKS? ITULIP SUBSCRIBERS?

Allow me to clarify the graphs.

Aug. 2008 to Aug. 2009 total issuance was $2 trillion.

Since most of the issuance since Aug. 2008 is short term, the new and rapidly growing periodic issuance since Jun. 2009 represents both a rolling over of maturing previously issued short term Treasury debt plus brand new new issuance. Thus the the $2 trillion is not net cumulative. The total increase to the public debt from issuance of new Treasury debt is approximately to $1.5 trillion, but that's an estimate at this point; we're still checking our math. Of that, more than 1/3 was issued in the month of Aug. 2009.

The net increase in foreign purchases of U.S. treasury securities for the period Aug. 2008 to Aug. 2009 is $281 billion, approximately 20% of total issuance. The balance, the other 80%, was purchased by domestic entities.

[goadam1]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

It took ww2 to end an empire. Or was it an ending empire opened the door to ww2? How does this empire end, with a bang or a whimper. Nuclear weapons makes it sticky.

Obama seemed like the man to usher in 2nd world America for the p.t.b.. But who knows.

The U.S. only engages in war if it has a clear ten to one advantage in men and materiel over its adversary. It has learned that even so, victory is elusive.

If the Iraq war took the dollar down from over 110 to 70, how far will an Iran invasion take it?

And how long until the entire empire is sunk, and its currency, too? Ask the Brits.

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The U.S. only engages in war if it has a clear ten to one advantage in men and materiel over its adversary. It has learned that even so, victory is elusive.

From an NYT article this weekend:

...Stephen Holmes, a left-leaning law professor at New York University, recently wrote a critique of General McChrystal’s plan that almost exactly echoed Will/Kennan: “Turning an illegitimate government into a legitimate one is simply beyond the capacities of foreigners, however wealthy or militarily unmatched.”...

If the Iraq war took the dollar down from over 110 to 70, how far will an Iran invasion take it?...

...And how long until the entire empire is sunk, and its currency, too? Ask the Brits.

I think the danger for the rest of the world is not that the USA will be starting any new adventures soon, but that instead it now attempts to retrace a path towards the isolationist notions of Thomas Paine.

Like many things in life, the American Empire taken in moderation can be beneficial, but taken to excess could prove fatal...