Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The IRAN issue is warming up.

IRAN will be bombed its a matter of time, maybe before XMAS.

OIL is bound to rocket, but so is the $USD (Safety call).

How does this mess fit into inflationist or deflationist play.

Dont that say if OIL doubles within a year, a recession follows !

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

...The Obama administration's behavior thus far has been far from accommodating to ROW interests; the ongoing massive spending is a sign that the US would rather risk systemic dollar collapse than cooperate on an exit plan. The accompanying massive military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan show similarly poor end gamesmanship...

On this point I don't agree C1ue...and here's a post of mine explaining why.

I also think that the President's recent speech to the United Nations is sending the rest of the world a clear message. Whether these policy shifts are motivated by a desire to differentiate himself from the Bush Administration, by increasing fiscal constraints, because of pressure from other allied nations, or all of these and more, is debatable. But it seems the direction the USA is headed appears unmistakable...

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The IRAN issue is warming up.

IRAN will be bombed its a matter of time, maybe before XMAS.

OIL is bound to rocket, but so is the $USD (Safety call).

How does this mess fit into inflationist or deflationist play.

Dont that say if OIL doubles within a year, a recession follows !

I am sure that there's a number of deflationista's out there with charts and graphs and long-winded explanations to the contrary...but war is inflationary.

And I don't understand your "Safety Call"? Are you saying both oil and the US Dollar will rocket? At the same time? That'll be quite a trick...

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The evidence suggest that $USD could spike putting pressure on GOLD, not so much on oil ( of course)..

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...88&postcount=1

[FRED]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Another macroeconomic analysis that is divorced from geopolitical considerations. The debt could be deflated if they weren't accelerating new debt issuance - this will end with a currency crisis.

As simply as we can lay our our case, debt issuance is rising rapidly:

$557 billion in Aug. 2009 alone, most of it short term:

Yet net foreign purchases are a fraction of that total issuance, totaling $281 billion for the entire year:

How long can this go on?

[phirang]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Here's the thing with devaluing the dollar:

95% of Americans are basically... poor. Let's lump in the erstwhile "expectant" classes into poor, since that's what they are now.

These poor people depend on importing deflation to survive. To crash the dollar now solves nothing, but that doesn't mean we won't see a controlled depreciation.

We will have Plaza 2.0. The question is the degree of cooperation.

[FRED]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Here's the thing with devaluing the dollar:

95% of Americans are basically... poor. Let's lump in the erstwhile "expectant" classes into poor, since that's what they are now.

These poor people depend on importing deflation to survive. To crash the dollar now solves nothing, but that doesn't mean we won't see a controlled depreciation.

We will have Plaza 2.0. The question is the degree of cooperation.

Our take is that the U.S. held a considerably better hand the last time it sat at the table to negotiate a new international monetary and currency regime. It's best hand was of course in 1944. A crash benefits no one.

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

FRED: How long can this go on?

Hows this...

IRAN is bombed...massive flight to safety
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...88&postcount=1

$USD Spikes..
$SOCKS fall 30%
$USA BONDS are purchased at a rapid pace ... all USA debt demands are sold with little problem ! Easy Peasy !

$GOLD sells off 10%, a great buy SETUP.
$OIL hits $200

A recession is secured for 2010 .....more money printing...the cycle continues !

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Hows this...

IRAN is bombed...massive flight to safety
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showpos...88&postcount=1

$USD Spikes..
$SOCKS fall 30%
$USA BONDS are purchased at a rapid pace ... all USA debt demands are sold with little problem ! Easy Peasy !

$GOLD sells off 10%, a great buy SETUP.
$OIL hits $200

A recession is secured for 2010 .....more money printing...the cycle continues !

How about Iran is bombed and the US$ sells off...because the world quickly realizes that the one remaining "superpower" is about to be mired in another costly and impossible-to-win military operation as it pursues regime change in Persia?

This increasingly likely outcome is the strongest argument for why Iran will NOT be bombed.

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

How about Iran is bombed and the US$ sells off...because the world quickly realizes that the one remaining "superpower" is about to be mired in another costly and impossible-to-win military action

The $USD may sell off, after the dust has settled..

BUT I think the ARABS would BUY $USD safety assets faster than Bill Clinton chases White House interns...be real !:p

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

The $USD may sell off, after the dust has settled..

BUT I think the ARABS would BUY $USD safety assets faster than Bill Clinton chases White House interns...be real !:p

The Gulf Arab states [not private individuals!] will be buying US Treasuries, but not for "safety" reasons. They will be buying them because the USA, which remains the primary benefactor of the Gulf Ruling Families and keeps them in power, will be demanding that they buy them in order to fund yet another of its foolish foreign adventures.

Just as in the past, the Arabs will know that they are buying a losing "investment", but the alternative for them is worse...for now.

But the USA has played this game in the Gulf many times, and the Gulf States have become much more active at trying to exert influence in Washington. The lobbying effort they mounted with the Bush White House to try to convince the Administration not to go to war in Iraq was the most comprehensive ever, even if it proved unsuccessful [but what they told the President and his advisors would happen has turned out to be deadly accurate].

Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld are gone. Iran will NOT be bombed.

[dummass]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

As simply as we can lay our our case, debt issuance is rising rapidly:

$557 billion in Aug. 2009 alone, most of it short term:

Yet net foreign purchases are a fraction of that total issuance, totaling $281 billion for the entire year:

How long can this go on?

WHO BOUGHT THE OTHER HALF? THE FED? ZOMBY BANKS? ITULIP SUBSCRIBERS?

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld are gone. Iran will NOT be bombed.

I think when all the shouting is done...do you really think that these guys will say WE TRUST YOU OBAMA !
POWER.jpg


Obama numbers already suggest hes a 1 term president, so 3 years is not long to wait !

NOTE: I am not jewish...just reading the tea leaves !

[icm63]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

WHO BOUGHT THE OTHER HALF? THE FED? ZOMBY BANKS? ITULIP SUBSCRIBERS?

Where have you been, since March 09, the FED has purchased 50% of the own sh*T !

[GRG55]

Re: Janet Tavakoli a Deflationist, yes its true !

I think when all the shouting is done...do you really think that these guys will say WE TRUST YOU OBAMA !
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Obama numbers already suggest hes a 1 term president, so 3 years is not long to wait !

NOTE: I am not jewish...just reading the tea leaves !

Show me one example of Israel conducting a pre-emptive military strike operation where it was discussed and speculated on so widely on the front pages of international newspapers and other public media beforehand.

The more people like you speculate in public that it's a done deal, the less likely it will ever happen...