Phoenix cremated

[thunderdownunder]

In the words of Monty Python...

Mr.Consumer: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

MSN: Oh yes, the, uh, the Phoenix...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

Mr.Consumer: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!

MSN: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.

Mr.Consumer: Look, matey, I know a dead Phoenix when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

MSN: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Phoenix, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!

Mr.Consumer: The plumage don't enter into it. It's stone dead.

MSN: Nononono, no, no! 'E's resting!..............................


The Phoenix office vacancy rate probably exceeds 30 percent, including space that’s leased yet vacant because the tenants have pulled out, Rounds said.

More offices are becoming available. Los Angeles-based commercial broker CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. said in a second quarter report 2.2 million square feet will be ready for occupancy this year and in early 2010.

Late Payments Rise

As tenants abandon space, landlords are struggling to meet their obligations. Commercial properties with mortgage payments 60 days late or more rose to 8.5 percent as of August in the Phoenix, up from 1.6 percent in March, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The commercial markets are the second shoe to drop,” said Marshall Vest, the director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management in Tucson. Vest has lived in Tucson since 1970 and worked at the business school studying and forecasting the Arizona economy for 30 years.

Rising Unemployment

In August, 19 states had higher unemployment rates than Arizona’s, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show.

Worse, more real estate is at risk of defaulting throughout the U.S. Investors in commercial mortgage-backed securities are holding assets with a delinquent unpaid balance of $28.9 billion, up more than five fold since June 2008, according to a report issued by the Congressional Oversight Panel. Under a worst-case scenario, the panel estimates that commercial real estate and construction loan losses through 2010 may total $81.1 billion at 701 banks with assets of $600 million to $80 billion.
Well thats 700 banks who are cactus
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ak__6D.HTBQM

[jimmygu3]

Re: Phoenix cremated

A friend told me recently of two different people he knows who moved to Phoenix to take advantage of the housing "bargains". They buy a place in Phoenix for a quarter of what their underwater mortgage in the northeast is, then walk away from the first house to live cheap in Phoenix. Someone asked about trashed credit and his reply was that everyone's credit in Phoenix is trashed, so they fit right in!

I suppose if you have a line of work you can do from anywhere it's not a terrible play.

Jimmy

[soewhatman]

Re: Phoenix cremated

I have lived in Phoenix for 17 years now. My fiance and I have recently negotiated a short sell on her house, which she purchased for 240k about 4 years ago. I purchased another house a mile up the road, a bank owned foreclosure, for 60k and am putting about 20k into the house. We will move into the new house in about 2 weeks. The new house is 20 sf smaller than the old house, on a larger lot, in a very comparable neighborhood. This is a very lateral move as far as the house in concerned, but the difference is between about 560k in mortgatge payments over the next 25 years and about 60k in payments over the next 15 years. The housing market is a real mess in Phoenix, which you all know.. There is lots of bidding action right now in sub 150k properties, and almost nothing over 200k right now. There is a huge difference between bank owned foreclosure properties and short sells. The banks seem willing to dump the properties they own, but are being stingy on short sales. I know 3 local real estate agents and they all tell the same story.

Just sharing a personal experience in the Phoenix real estate market.

[touchring]

Re: Phoenix cremated

Do you mean that the 240k house is worth only around 60k?

Does the law in Phoenix allow you to walk away from the mortgage by short selling the house?

I have lived in Phoenix for 17 years now. My fiance and I have recently negotiated a short sell on her house, which she purchased for 240k about 4 years ago. I purchased another house a mile up the road, a bank owned foreclosure, for 60k and am putting about 20k into the house. We will move into the new house in about 2 weeks. The new house is 20 sf smaller than the old house, on a larger lot, in a very comparable neighborhood. This is a very lateral move as far as the house in concerned, but the difference is between about 560k in mortgatge payments over the next 25 years and about 60k in payments over the next 15 years. The housing market is a real mess in Phoenix, which you all know.. There is lots of bidding action right now in sub 150k properties, and almost nothing over 200k right now. There is a huge difference between bank owned foreclosure properties and short sells. The banks seem willing to dump the properties they own, but are being stingy on short sales. I know 3 local real estate agents and they all tell the same story.

Just sharing a personal experience in the Phoenix real estate market.

[soewhatman]

Re: Phoenix cremated

A home 3 houses down from my fiance's sold for 105k a month ago, and it was slightly nicer than hers on a larger lot. Another across the street sold for 95k after being on the market for 2 years with multiple price reductions. I imagine my fiance's would sell with a price between 90k-100k based on the last 6 months of local comps. I was dating her at the time she bought the house and strongly counseled her against it, but she thought I was crazy and she should buy a house because all of her friends were. She is self employed, offered no income verification or tax returns to the mortgage broker, and put a total of $300 down to buy the house for $240k. Typical housing boom story, with two crummy no-doc ARM mortgages on the house. Neither note is owned or guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie so there are no real gov't incentives for the banks to renegotiate. The larger note holder has been unwilling to negotiate anything but an extension of payment terms, even with an attorney involved. They are bending over backwards to accomodate a short sale, though.

The law in Arizona does not allow you to walk away from the mortgage in a short sell situation, but you can in the case of a foreclosure. Arizona law offers very good protection for homeowners in the case of foreclosure so long as the property is owner occupied, and in some cases even for occupied investment properties. Consequently, the banks here seem pretty willing to negotiate short sales and will offer full foregiveness of the outstanding balance once the short sale has closed.