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  • More Green Shoots?

    Sure...:rolleyes:

    What??? No Federal bailout of CIT :eek:. Obviously Goldman's exposure [short the common no doubt] must be in the money on this one...:rolleyes:
    CIT near plan to turn over company to bondholders: sources
    Wed Sep 30, 2009 5:57am EDT

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc is nearing a plan that likely would hand the commercial lender over to its bondholders, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

    CIT was preparing an exchange offer that would eliminate up to 40 percent of its more than $30 billion in outstanding debt, said the sources, who did not wish to be identified because they were not authorized to make public comments about the deal.

    The plan would offer bondholders new debt secured by CIT assets, as well as nearly all of the equity in a restructured company, one source said.

    If not enough bondholders agreed to the plan, the company could seek to restructure in bankruptcy court, the source said. This would result in one of the largest Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court filings in U.S. history...
    The latest exhibit from the "Less Bad is now Deemed Good" file [sounds like they had a meeting with FASB ]:
    IMF warns on rising bank losses

    Wed Sep 30, 2009 7:20am EDT

    ISTANBUL (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday lowered its estimate for global write-downs for banks and other financial institutions to roughly $3.4 trillion but warned that loan losses could rise in the face of stubbornly high unemployment and associated delinquencies.

    In April the IMF estimated in its Global Financial Stability Report that global bank losses could reach $4 trillion but it said it cut this figure by $600 billion to reflect rising securities values and new ways of calculating losses...
    And while we have that file open, here's another:
    U.S. Q2 GDP shrinks less, private jobs fall in Sept
    Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:11am EDT

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy contracted at slower pace than previously thought in the second quarter, but a further decline in private payrolls in September was another indication that recovery from recession would be patchy.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 0.7 percent annual rate instead of the 1.0 percent decline reported last month. This was better than market expectations for a 1.2 percent drop...


    Maybe those rising US house prices reported for July, and touted as signs of the ever elusive bottom in the housing market, are discouraging buyers...
    Mortgage demand falls despite lower rates

    Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:05am EDT

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week despite the lowest loan rates in four months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, in another sign that housing will likely recover slowly from its three-year plunge...

    From the "Let's Share the Pain" file [I wonder if any of those recent VancouverGoinUp real estate investors are paying attention :p ]:
    Canadian economy stalls

    Tavia Grant, The Globe and Mail
    September 30, 2009

    Canadian economic activity was unexpectedly flat in July as shutdowns at mines, lower oil-and-gas extraction and a drop in construction activity held back growth.

    The country's gross domestic product didn't budge in the month after a 0.1-percent increase in June, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

    Economists polled by Bloomberg News expected the economy expanded 0.5 percent in the month after a year of little or no growth.

    Economists – and the Bank of Canada – have said July marked the start Canada's economic recovery. Today's report, however, suggests the economy was still in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter.

    "This is a shocker," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, who called the report "wall-to-wall disappointment on the goods-producing front."...
    And finally one for Mega...just so he knows that we Canadians still pay attention to the goings-on in the mother country, which we continue to regard with more fondness than he does. Sounds like Brown had a meeting with Obama about "the change thing" on the side during the recent G20 ;):
    Brown campaigns against himself as British election looms

    From Wednesday's Globe and Mail Last updated on Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2009 03:00AM EDT

    The campaign of a lifetime began this week, pitting Gordon Brown, beleaguered British Prime Minister, against a fearsome new political opponent – Gordon Brown, reform-minded Labour Party candidate.

    In a marathon-length televised speech to party members in the seaside town of Brighton Tuesday, Mr. Brown effectively launched a campaign for next year's election by unleashing a series of bold reformist promises, including abolishing the appointed House of Lords, introducing universal state child care and pledging to crack down on rowdy teens.

    It was an audacious and desperate bid on the part of a leader who some polls say has fallen to third place in a country with only two well-known parties...

    ...But the polls show that Mr. Brown's most serious enemy is himself...

    ...A poll Tuesday by London's Independent newspaper appeared to show that Labour could beat the Tories next year, albeit with a minority government, as long as Labour's candidate is someone other than Gordon Brown.

    The result, in Brighton Tuesday, was that Mr. Brown became an opposition politician, railing against the failings of the previous government and promising change...


    Last edited by GRG55; September 30, 2009, 09:06 AM.

  • #2
    Re: More Green Shoots?
    • IMF says losses from the financial crisis will likely total $3.4 trillion, which is $600 billion less than its prediction in April; adds that government and central bank actions have helped reduce systemic risks, but warns that great care will be needed when enacting exit strategies.
    • Handelsblatt: IMF to raise 2009 global growth forecast to -1.1% from -1.4%; projected growth for next year will be increased to +3.1% from +2.5%.


    ...

    http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...009-09-30.html

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: More Green Shoots?

      It just keeps getting better and better...:rolleyes:



      How do you say "Where did all those Tundra owning Texans go" in Japanese?
      Toyota Says Company Is ‘Grasping for Salvation’

      Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest automaker, is “grasping for salvation” as it predicts a second straight annual loss, President Akio Toyoda said...

      ...The automaker is one step away from “capitulation to irrelevance or death,” Toyoda said, citing a study of how companies fail. Toyota has forecast a record loss of 450 billion yen ($5 billion) in the year ending March after the worldwide recession pummeled car demand.

      The company has gone through the phases of “hubris born of success,” “undisciplined pursuit of more” and “denial of risk and peril,” according to Toyoda, who cited Jim Collins, the author of “How the Mighty Fail.”...


      From the "Be Careful What You Wish For" file:
      EU Says Stress Test Shows European Banks Could Withstand Deeper Recession

      Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- A stress test of the European Union’s biggest banks showed they could withstand an even deeper recession, though with almost 400 billion euros ($581 billion) in losses, according to a report to EU finance chiefs.

      Under current EU economic forecasts for 2009 and 2010, the largest banks in the region would maintain an average Tier 1 capital ratio “well above” 9 percent, the officials said yesterday in a statement after meeting in Gothenburg, Sweden. A “more adverse” scenario would boost losses and cut the average ratio to about 8 percent.

      The five-month study was ordered by ministers after a similar one in the U.S...

      ...“All systemic institutions showed that they were very resilient,” Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado told reporters today...


      Gee, I wish I was a Very Resilient European Bank instead of this:
      Banks With 20% Unpaid Loans at 18-Year High Amid Recovery Doubt

      Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. lenders that can’t collect on at least 20 percent of their loans hit an 18-year high, signaling that more bank failures and losses could slow an economic recovery...

      ...“There are some zombie banks out there,” said Bert Ely, chief executive officer at Ely & Co., a bank consulting firm in Alexandria, Virginia. [Wow, there's a useful insight from a consultant]...


      On the other hand...Oh the shame and misery of being a failed US banker:
      Ken Lewis' $53 Million Goodbye

      Fri Oct 2, 2009 12:18am EDT

      For all of you fretting about how outgoing Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis is likely to make ends meet rest easy. CNN Money reports that Lewis will likely walk away with $53 million in retirement benefits when he leaves the bank after eight years at the helm. "That should give him about $3.5 million a year in pension payouts for the rest of his life -- at a time when people who bought the stock when he took the reins in 2001 are underwater on their investments," it notes...


      How to become a very resilient international property baron, without really trying:
      Pain in Spain May Linger as Banks Seek to Avoid Property Losses

      ...Banks bought about 110,000 homes to keep losses off their books as Spain’s property bubble burst, according to real estate researcher RR de Acuna & Asociados in Madrid. Now they’re using strategies reminiscent of the boom times -- 100 percent mortgages, low interest rates and free cars -- to sell homes, potentially slowing a drop in prices that’s needed to spur recovery from Spain’s worst recession in 60 years...

      ...Spanish lenders acquired at least 20 billion euros ($29 billion) of real estate in the past 18 months, according to data compiled by analysts at Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG...

      ...Santander, Spain’s biggest lender, has acquired more than 4 billion euros of real estate and is selling homes through Altamira Santander Real Estate, its property arm.

      Altamira offers clients variable-rate mortgages at the one- year euro interbank offered rate plus 0.4 percent, according to its Web site. That’s 1.64 percent at current rates...

      ...The bank also offers 100 percent financing, mortgage insurance and aid to buyers of holiday homes...


      Martha, have you seen my exit strategy?
      IMF chief: sustained stimulus needed to save jobs

      Fri Oct 2, 2009 8:24am EDT

      ISTANBUL (Reuters) - IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Friday that government stimulus was still needed to prop up the global economy because of rising unemployment and a still-damaged financial sector.

      Strauss-Kahn told a news conference ahead of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's annual meetings here that withdrawing stimulus too quickly would hamper global recovery...

      And we won't bother mentioning the "unexpected" Non-farm Payrolls numbers :eek: [no doubt someone else will start a new thread on that topic]...
      Last edited by GRG55; October 02, 2009, 07:49 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: More Green Shoots?

        Martha, I've looked everywhere in Old Europe and the New World, and still can't find my exit strategy...
        Fed officials: Economy mending, but weakness persists

        Thu Oct 1, 2009 8:36pm EDT

        NEW YORK/MACON, Georgia (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday that while the recession-battered economy is on the mend, it will be weak for a while and the Fed is likely to keep its extensive support policies in place for a while.

        The presidents of the Cleveland and the Atlanta Federal Reserve banks, in separate remarks, highlighted the economy's continued reliance on government stimulus programs in citing its fragile state.

        Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said she expects a gradual and bumpy recovery from the recession and is not worried that the Fed's extensive efforts to pump money into the economy risk igniting inflation...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: More Green Shoots?

          Was on bloomberg checking out the employment situation data under economic data... gotta love the commentary trying to put a positive spin on the crappy numbers:

          "The September jobs report was disappointing-but the consensus may have grown too optimistic. In reality, job losses are not nearly as severe as earlier in the recession and the unemployment rate is drifting up slowly as expected. ..."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: More Green Shoots?

            Originally posted by WildspitzE View Post
            Was on bloomberg checking out the employment situation data under economic data... gotta love the commentary trying to put a positive spin on the crappy numbers:

            "The September jobs report was disappointing-but the consensus may have grown too optimistic. In reality, job losses are not nearly as severe as earlier in the recession and the unemployment rate is drifting up slowly as expected. ..."


            We could have some fun with this:
            • Bernanke: "Mortgage defaults aren't nearly as contained as they were earlier in the recession"
            • Geithner: "My commitment to a Strong US Dollar isn't nearly as great as earlier in the recession"
            • The President: "My Administration's ardor for Change isn't nearly as intense as earlier in the recession"
            • Chicken Little: "The sky isn't falling nearly as fast as earlier in the recession"
            ...

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: More Green Shoots?

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
              Martha, I've looked everywhere in Old Europe and the New World, and still can't find my exit strategy...
              Fed officials: Economy mending, but weakness persists

              Thu Oct 1, 2009 8:36pm EDT

              NEW YORK/MACON, Georgia (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday that while the recession-battered economy is on the mend, it will be weak for a while and the Fed is likely to keep its extensive support policies in place for a while.

              The presidents of the Cleveland and the Atlanta Federal Reserve banks, in separate remarks, highlighted the economy's continued reliance on government stimulus programs in citing its fragile state.

              Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said she expects a gradual and bumpy recovery from the recession and is not worried that the Fed's extensive efforts to pump money into the economy risk igniting inflation...

              Martha, I finally found my exit strategy. It was hanging in the back of the closet beside some of my old suits.

              It doesn't fit any more...



              Fed's Dudley: QE2 Exit Could Take Years

              By REUTERS
              Published: November 16, 2010

              WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A top U.S. Federal Reserve official defended the Fed's controversial bond-buying program on Tuesday, saying it could be years before pulling back easy money policies is warranted.

              "This exit could be years away," New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said an interview on CNBC. A transcript of the interview was made public.
              The dollar fell against the Euro and the Yen on the comments.

              Dudley cautioned that it will take months of adding 200,000 to 300,000 jobs to foster a meaningful recovery, and said the Fed's program to buy $600 billion in longer-term Treasuries is unlikely to generate a spurt of growth.

              "Modest effect. It's not a fantasy. It's not a magic wand," he said.

              "It's going to make the economy grow a little bit faster. It's going to generate a little bit more employment growth. But you know, we have a long bumpy road to travel," Dudley said...

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: More Green Shoots?

                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post



                Fed's Dudley: QE2 Exit Could Take Years

                By REUTERS
                Published: November 16, 2010

                WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A top U.S. Federal Reserve official defended the Fed's controversial bond-buying program on Tuesday, saying it could be years before pulling back easy money policies is warranted.

                "This exit could be years away," New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said an interview on CNBC. A transcript of the interview was made public.
                The dollar fell against the Euro and the Yen on the comments.

                Dudley cautioned that it will take months of adding 200,000 to 300,000 jobs to foster a meaningful recovery, and said the Fed's program to buy $600 billion in longer-term Treasuries is unlikely to generate a spurt of growth.

                "Modest effect. It's not a fantasy. It's not a magic wand," he said.

                "It's going to make the economy grow a little bit faster. It's going to generate a little bit more employment growth. But you know, we have a long bumpy road to travel," Dudley said...

                didn't sartre write a play about this?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: More Green Shoots?

                  Originally posted by jk View Post
                  didn't sartre write a play about this?
                  Great minds think alike. We're working on a future article titled: No Exit.

                  Here is one of the main exhibits.


                  The Fed shapes the yield curve. No way out?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: More Green Shoots?

                    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post


                    [INDENT][INDENT]Fed's Dudley: QE2 Exit Could Take Years

                    By REUTERS
                    Published: November 16, 2010

                    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A top U.S. Federal Reserve official defended the Fed's controversial bond-buying program on Tuesday, saying it could be years before pulling back easy money policies is warranted.
                    Dudley confirms two things I said on 10-27-10 before Fed's QE announcement.
                    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...78907#poststop
                     
                    Text of Dudley interview with Liesman.
                    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/CNBC/Sec...ipt_Edited.pdf

                    Page 20

                    Look,
                    obviously, we're going to have to look at all the
                    panoply of economic indicators very carefully to
                    know when the time is right to exit.
                    14:16:43:00 Now, you know, I think-- you know, it's-- I think
                    it's remarkable though that we're spending so
                    much time talking about exit when you think about
                    the fact that we have a 9.6 percent unemployment
                    rate, and an economy that's growing only about
                    two and two-- two to two and a half percent at an
                    annual rate. We're not even generating
                    sufficient jobs yet to-- actually bring the
                    unemployment rate down. So you know, this exit
                    could be several years away.
                    page 38

                    BILL DUDLEY:
                    14:29:48:00 I think the too big to fail issue is being
                    addressed-- both in the U.S. and elsewhere.
                    What's happening on the international track is
                    identifying-- globally-- important-- systemically
                    important financial institutions. So-- and
                    basically-- for those institutions-- it's
                    thinking about-- having-- rules and regulations
                    in place that required them to have more loss
                    absorbing cap-- capacity relative to smaller,
                    less systemically important institutions.
                    14:30:17:00 And of course, here in the United States-- you
                    know, the-- the-- the Dodd Frank Act (PH) has
                    established-- a new resolution regime for large
                    systemically important non-bank financial
                    institutions, so we're making progress on this.
                    You know, but this is not easy-- for globally
                    active firms that are participating and active in
                    many different jurisdictions-- it's going to take
                    some time to develop a resolution regime that
                    works-- you know, in a coordinative fashion
                    around the world.
                    STEVE LIESMAN:
                    14:30:41:00 Do you feel like a year, you'll come back, and--
                    I know you're goin' to Basel a lot. Do you feel
                    like that-- that process is going to lead, in a
                    year's time, through a real global regime?
                    BILL DUDLEY:
                    14:30:50:00 Well, I think it's going to-- it may-- may take
                    longer than a year. I mean, I think, in fact, it
                    will probably take longer than a year. But I
                    think if-- you know, if the U.S. can make
                    progress on-- in implementing its resolution
                    regime, and other countries can make similar
                    progress-- then I think, you know, down the road,
                    we will get to a point where we actually can
                    resolve-- a large complex global firm.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: More Green Shoots?

                      it's going to take some time to develop a resolution regime that works-- you know, in a coordinative fashion around the world.
                      Excellent quotes - thanks.

                      As I've been suggesting, it seems that the Fed isn't going away. It's going global. Global governance of financial markets, the world's monetary system, and its banks and related institutions (which covers just about everyone except my cat) is what they are working toward.

                      The Dodd Frank Act wasn't about reigning in the Fed. It was enabling legislation for this evolution in financial governance.
                      Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: More Green Shoots?

                        Originally posted by EJ View Post
                        Here is one of the main exhibits.

                        ...

                        The Fed shapes the yield curve. No way out?
                        What the heck is that chart showing?

                        It is not the total amount of outstanding Treasury debt (in $billion) at various maturities, because it shows everything getting much less in early 2008, and because it shows 15 to 90 Treasuries at negative percentage, and I'm sure we don't have less than zero percent of those outstanding at present.

                        It is not the yields on various maturities, because, for example of many possible, it shows 1 to 5 year Treasuries over 8 percent now, not the 1 or 2 percent they are now.

                        You got me flummoxed (easy enough to do, I'm sure.)
                        Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: More Green Shoots?

                          Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
                          Excellent quotes - thanks.

                          As I've been suggesting, it seems that the Fed isn't going away. It's going global. Global governance of financial markets, the world's monetary system, and its banks and related institutions (which covers just about everyone except my cat) is what they are working toward.

                          The Dodd Frank Act wasn't about reigning in the Fed. It was enabling legislation for this evolution in financial governance.
                          FSB will be very active setting up a framework to handle financial institutions that may cause financial instability.
                          http://www.financialstabilityboard.o...pr_101111a.pdf

                          Dodd-Frank will harmonize with FSB as world financial order takes shape.
                          http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90873016-f...#axzz15WFDNNDb
                          November 14 2010 19:45
                          The work under way in Washington springs out of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill enacted this summer. By moving ahead of the global consensus, it could offer the rest of the world a template for how to tackle the problem. Or if others do not follow, it could leave the US isolated and its financial institutions less competitive.
                          Either way, the consequences could be profound, as the new rules could force some to change their business models and make some product lines unprofitable. As Tim Geithner, Treasury secretary, has said, any institution that might affect the US economy could be required “to run with a much more conservative and prudent leverage and funding mix”.
                          Under Dodd-Frank, banks with more than $50bn in assets will automatically fall under the oversight of a new regulatory group. Currently some 36 names – from Bank of America to Zions Bancorporation of Salt Lake City – fall into this category. Regulators are now looking at how to decide which non-banks should join them – and are fleshing out a “resolution regime”, which they hope would allow the government to wind down a future Lehman or AIG without sending a shockwave through the system or a fat bill to the taxpayer.
                          If the system works, the whole suite of regulations in Dodd-Frank will operate in harmony.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: More Green Shoots?

                            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
                            What the heck is that chart showing?

                            It is not the total amount of outstanding Treasury debt (in $billion) at various maturities, because it shows everything getting much less in early 2008, and because it shows 15 to 90 Treasuries at negative percentage, and I'm sure we don't have less than zero percent of those outstanding at present.

                            It is not the yields on various maturities, because, for example of many possible, it shows 1 to 5 year Treasuries over 8 percent now, not the 1 or 2 percent they are now.

                            You got me flummoxed (easy enough to do, I'm sure.)
                            The right hand scale only applies to the 3 mo Treasury secondary market rate line [the gray line on the chart], all the other curves are related to the left hand scale. The key in the lower right shows which is which.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: More Green Shoots?

                              Originally posted by bill View Post
                              FSB will be very active setting up a framework to handle financial institutions that may cause financial instability.
                              http://www.financialstabilityboard.o...pr_101111a.pdf

                              Dodd-Frank will harmonize with FSB as world financial order takes shape.
                              http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90873016-f...#axzz15WFDNNDb

                              Thanks bill, great posts as always.

                              So, extrapolating for possible scenarios, do you think it is likely that huge banking institutions, like, say, Bank of America, will be liquidated by the Fed? What happens then, does the Fed expand its balance sheet and keep all the toxic assets, and sell off the "good" stuff?

                              Comment

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