David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

[Starving Steve]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Gold BUGS dont look...

$USD rally will force gold sell off....wooooooo
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13767.html

[ATTACH]2204[/ATTACH]

I hope so, cause a gold sell off like that would be the BUY of the next 5 years !

Ben Bernanke wants a dollar rally? Ben Bernanke now is Paul Volcker? That makes about as much sense as oil coming out of solar panels and windmills.

The mega-trend is rarely wrong, and the mega-trend in the markets is for a weaker dollar, stronger gold, and higher commodity prices, especially higher oil prices.... Those who can play the mega-trend over the long-haul of years, will make money in this market.

What would change the mega-trend? 1.) a new world monetary system based upon something of real value like gold; 2.) a new Fed chief in the U.S; 3.) a major move toward atomic energy in America; 4.) a major public revolt worldwide against radical environmentalism; 5.) a major defeat of the Islamo-fascists worldwide; 6.) a major revolt against current economists, especially within university economics departments; 7.) getting rid of Chou running the Department of Energy in the U.S; 8.) the Bank of China openly putting a floor under the value of the U.S. dollar; 9.) a major economic recovery in the U.S. supported by manufacturing and exports.

The chances for any of these things happening are somewhere between Slim and None, and Slim just walked out of the door.

[LargoWinch]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

And finally, Metalman, I don't know what your relationship is with icm63, but to the extent you continue to try and discredit his posts, you lose credibility.

Camtender, I do not think that Metalman's "reminders" of icm63's calls have cost him any credibility and/or are to be perceived as an attack on icm63.

Look, I do not tell people what to do or buy and I believe so do you. Well, actually I may give a stupid tip in an odd day, but I will always say something like this before I do so: "this is horseshit or not, wanna try it?".

Having said that, our friend icm63 IS making calls about shorting the broad market, selling gold/silver short-term and/or going long the USD without the horseshit remarks, but with some nice graphs, bars and colorful charts which I (and many others I know) like. Seriously.


That being said, he may be right and live on to be an iTulip hero or...

he may be wrong and well...just be like the average guy out there.

Ahh, such is the bitch about predicting the future with your and/or other people's money on the table.


In the meantime, I do not think anyone who is reminding icm63 that real "money is on the table" is synonymous with "losing credibility".

[icm63]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

For those that care..

My thread : http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...506#post116506

Current status :
- LONG UUP from 23.25 ( a little nervous, but last couple of days encouraging)
- Waiting to short stocks on a lower low, Under Sp500 1100 !

[LargoWinch]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

For those that care..

My thread : http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...506#post116506

Current status :
- LONG UUP from 23.25 ( a little nervous, but last couple of days encouraging)
- Waiting to short stocks on a lower low, Under Sp500 1100 !

See the fire? That is what I like.

The guy knows where the thing is going.



Here is me:

[ST]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

wait... what? rosenberg was predicting deflation 'for the foreseeable future' 2 wks ago!! :eek:

A Vote for Bonds Over U.S. Stocks - Interview with David Rosenberg ...

Sep 14, 2009 ... David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist, Gluskin Sheff & .... going to dominate the deflation in the CPI for the foreseeable future. ...

He's more complicated than that. He's been a commodity bull for a long time based mainly on supply/demand curves and his recognition from a long time ago that we are in an equities are going to be dead 18 yr cycle and a commodities bull market.

During the intermediate term he's been directing Gluskin Sheff towards corporate bonds and makes a good case for their undervaluation back in March vs. equities. Long term he's a commodities bull, but yep he does see asset deflation in equity markets coming and some serious price deflation is his call in certain sectors.

So in my view his call on commodities is not really a stagflation/currency depreciation play (though he now seems to be entertaining that idea) but rather a 'when the global economy does recover after deflation play'. Evidence of this can be found in his reasoning that he feels if the S&P hits 800 it will be very attractive.

As I've mentioned before, he is almost entirely data driven and I think anyone interested in the macro point of view would do well to read his stuff daily - for the moment free if you sign up at gluskin sheff. In fact, I think a debate between EJ and Rosenberg would be exceptionally enlightening as both are so data driven. Rosenberg will likely prove to have used the wrong model in the end, but ....

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

- Waiting to short stocks on a lower low, Under Sp500 1100 !

Beware -- if the dollar collapsed, S&P500 shorts would be demolished.

[goadam1]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Why on earth would anyone buy $CAD fiat - or worse $CAD bonds - when Oil and Gold are also available as investments?

I'm just the kind of person who likes to squirrel in lots of holes.

[jpatter666]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Beware -- if the dollar collapsed, S&P500 shorts would be demolished.

Interesting thought that....I've been mulling whether I want to add to my March S&P puts along with longer-dated GLD calls (yes, I know all the issues with GLD, but I can't find options on GTU or CEF!)

Seems any way you look is fraught with high risk.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Seems any way you look is fraught with high risk.

Bingo !

[jpatter666]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Bingo !

It's something I'm going to think about for certain. Another possible scenario in order:

1 ) Mildly stronger dollar
2 ) EJ's "event" -- bank, conflict (Iran), China, whatever
3 ) Dollar strongly rises on renewed panic flight, stocks crash
4 ) US Government (and others) restart the presses at "ludicrous speed"
5 ) Dollar crash -- Gold and stocks spike on major inflation fears

I think the time between #3 and #5 might be very, very slim.

[icm63]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Something to think about..

Two major economies have had a major political shift

Japan and Germany: The people have allowed more power to the few, so that things hopefully will get done, both countries have selected parties that have voting power without the need for collations.

What does this mean :
1) The could use this mandate to make the tough calls.
2) Change decades long positions on issues.

One tough call maybe to : stop buying USA paper !

[ST]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

It's something I'm going to think about for certain. Another possible scenario in order:

1 ) Mildly stronger dollar
2 ) EJ's "event" -- bank, conflict (Iran), China, whatever
3 ) Dollar strongly rises on renewed panic flight, stocks crash
4 ) US Government (and others) restart the presses at "ludicrous speed"
5 ) Dollar crash -- Gold and stocks spike on major inflation fears

I think the time between #3 and #5 might be very, very slim.

I've been thinking about that window as well. The more I think about it, the more I think the spigots will come on, but I doubt broader equities come back that quickly from a precipitious drop - psychology. That is, of course if you mean 'stocks' as stocks in general, vs. gold stocks. It would strike me as a great time to pick up Canadian gold stocks and Canadian currency as protection.

[charliebrown]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

would FXC work for you, little interest rate risk. more of a pure play on the USD/CAD exchange rate

[jpatter666]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

I've been thinking about that window as well. The more I think about it, the more I think the spigots will come on, but I doubt broader equities come back that quickly from a precipitious drop - psychology. That is, of course if you mean 'stocks' as stocks in general, vs. gold stocks. It would strike me as a great time to pick up Canadian gold stocks and Canadian currency as protection.

It depends on the definition of "crash". If you are talking about a complete implosion, no I agree that won't happen. But I could see a very fast initial devaluation of 20-40% quite easily. In such a case, stocks could rise on a "flee out of cash" scenario.

Worst case scenario, just about *any* hard asset would rise. Then we start worrying about price and currency controls (sigh)

[ST]

Re: David Rosenberg: Be wary of dollar depreciation, buy gold, other commodites and the CAD

Worst case scenario, just about *any* hard asset would rise. Then we start worrying about price and currency controls (sigh)

Yeah, that's the real risk of sticking around American digs and the main reason I'm considering speeding up my inevitable departure.

Currency controls, gold taxed at 90%, treasury holdings worth 50% less b/c dollar drops faster than anyone thinks, backlash in Congress - enormous wealth transfer from wealthy (not that it necessarily would apply to me), state and local taxes rise, crime rises, nationalism rises (it's China's fault). What's not to like?

Worst case, but we now know the impossible is possible.