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HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

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  • #16
    Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

    Barry Ritholtz has somewhat of a different perspective. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09...-of-two-evils/

    I was invited to testify this week to the House Financial Services Committee about reform and regulation.

    I politely demurred.

    Quite bluntly, I didn’t see how speaking to Congress would matter one tiny bit. Its not like they seem to be paying much attention to witnesses, or have very much interest in figuring out what was the cause of the crisis. Besides, they seem to be beholden to those whose interests are to not fix the problems at hand.

    While I have been critical of the Federal Reserve (especially the Greenspan years), my beef with them has been their judgment and decision-making process. Congress, on the other hand, is a whole different matter. Its not their judgment, but rather, the fact they are owned not by the American people, but by lobbyists, and corporate interests. They have become structurally deformed.

    How weird is it for me, who spent so many pages blaming the Fed for much of the recent crisis, to find myself in a position of defending them from outside political pressure? The choice we face is the recent Fed regime of secrecy, nonfeasance, irresponsibility, and easy money — versus something possibly likely to be a whole lot worse.

    To be found in “contempt of Congress” would require an improvement in opinion of them.

    If the Fed has been a major source of problems, Congress is much worse. They were the great enablers of the crisis, readily corruptible, bought and paid for by the banking industry. Even AFTER THE CRISIS, the lobbyists seem to own the place. Thus, I fear Congress is the worse of two evils — lacking in objectivity, incapable of producing legitimate regulatory review.

    If the Fed is Wall Street’s bitch, than Congress is the Street’s whore.

    You can see why going to DC is probably a good way to get my ass thrown in jail. Most scenarios I envisioned end with me trying not to respond with a list of the campaign donations that were made to the congressional questioner. I pictured myself responding not to the “Senator from the great state of Texas,” but rather, to the “Senator representing the great state of AIG.”

    In my mind, these back and forths all go badly. Visions of Jack Nicholson barking YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH comes to mind. Or worse, Al Pacino yelling, I’M OUT OF ORDER? THIS WHOLE PLACE IS OUT OF ORDER!

    I leave the great chamber — or rather, am led out — in cuffs.
    JN emphasis.
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

      And here is another perspective http://economistsview.typepad.com/ec...g-the-fed.html

      Snip:
      Originally posted by Bruce Bartlett
      I urge those curious about this issue to read both statements. I think it is abundantly clear that this is a crackpot idea. The Fed is already thoroughly audited in every area except two: monetary policy and dealings with foreign central banks. The only purpose of having additional audits of the Fed is to undermine its independence precisely with regard to these two areas. If Woods presents the best argument for doing so, the argument is very shallow indeed.

      Whatever one thinks of the Fed's policies in recent years--and there certainly are grounds for criticism--there is no reason whatsoever to believe that undermining its independence and putting the Congress in control of monetary policy--Ron Paul's goal--would improve matters at all. Indeed, there is every reason to believe that full congressional control of monetary policy would be a disaster. Instead of getting Switzerland-like stability, as Paul foolishly imagines, the more likely result would be Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation.
      Originally posted by Mark Thoma
      As I've made clear in the past, I also think that auditing the Fed, or reducing its independence in other ways, is a bad idea. The strange marriage of the populists and libertarians on this issue has given it more momentum that I expected, but hopefully not enough to carry the day.
      Jim 69 y/o

      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

        Originally posted by GeraldRiggs View Post
        Guys:

        I don't post as often as I should due to time constraints. However, I hope you don't think HR 1207 is going to pass the house , senate, and then be signed by Barrack "milktoast" Obama without a serious re-write (read watered down to the point of waste of time) or a major market correction to show Obama what will happen if he does.

        Remember Nicholas Biddle with the Second Bank of the US in the book Creature from Jekyll Island? When Jackson pulled the US' money supply from the bank Biddle crashed the economy and tried to pin it on Jackson.

        I think something similar could happen here. The oligarchs will not go quietly. One call to Goldman and he markets turn ugly fast.

        Don't get me wrong, I hope it does pass and the fed gets what is coming to 'em. I just don't think it will happen with the current legislators we have. Remember TARP and he martial law scare?
        With 295 cosponsors, 41 of which are on the Financial Services Committee, this bill is likely to pass in the House. This could be the event that leads the market into a tailspin.

        Remember last year at this time when the House voted no to TARP the first time, before they got smacked into order by the Senate and Wall Street?

        Note: All 29 Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee are cosponsors (or the sponsor) of this bill. Twelve of 42 Democrats on the committee are cosponsors.

        Here's the list of Committee Members.
        Here's the bill's cosponsors.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

          Originally posted by bpr View Post
          With 295 cosponsors, 41 of which are on the Financial Services Committee, this bill is likely to pass in the House. This could be the event that leads the market into a tailspin.
          Shouldn't this be dollar negative, hence stock market postive?
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
            Shouldn't this be dollar negative, hence stock market postive?
            Good point, and I'm not sure. I thought it would be broadly U.S. negative, thus both would fall.

            Stocks are the media's pulse on the economy, though. Nobody looks behind the dollar curtain.

            On the other hand, greater transparency and auditing could be a sign of greater monetary responsibility to come, which would be dollar positive.

            All I know is, there are enough cosponsors for a veto-proof majority in the House right now.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

              Why do you believe a Fed audit must be dollar negative?

              What do you think a Fed audit will show that the currency markets do not already now?

              A Fed audit will simply show that the Fed's balance sheet is filled with toxic waste, worth pennies on the dollar, and so who does not already understand that?

              Perhaps a Fed audit will be dollar positive in the eyes of the market?

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                Originally posted by MulaMan View Post
                Why do you believe a Fed audit must be dollar negative?

                What do you think a Fed audit will show that the currency markets do not already now?

                A Fed audit will simply show that the Fed's balance sheet is filled with toxic waste, worth pennies on the dollar, and so who does not already understand that?

                Perhaps a Fed audit will be dollar positive in the eyes of the market?
                I don't know, do you?

                I'm just thinking that a step in the right direction (toward monetary responsibility) may be considered dollar positive by currency markets. Remember, the whole reason for the dollar's decline is because of fiscal irresponsibility coupled with monetary irresponsibility. This kind of legislation is a step toward redacting some of that irresponsibility, making the Fed accountable for its actions.

                Note that when TARP failed in the house the dollar went up, the stock market tanked. TARP was wildly irresponsible from a monetary and fiscal perspective, and the dollar resumed its decline upon its passage. This kind of legislation is radically responsible, therefore possibly (?) dollar positive.

                I'm not sure.

                Just look, however, on how our largest markets work: they project future earnings and risk and base current prices on future valuations. This goes for stocks as well as Treasuries and the dollar. Everyone's baking future projections into current prices.

                Perhaps the unveiling of the dollar curtain's inner workings will be less painful than the projected opinions. The way our government works, I wouldn't be surprised if it would look extremely rosy.

                I'm not an economist, just a skeptic.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                  Originally posted by MulaMan View Post
                  Why do you believe a Fed audit must be dollar negative?

                  What do you think a Fed audit will show that the currency markets do not already now?

                  A Fed audit will simply show that the Fed's balance sheet is filled with toxic waste, worth pennies on the dollar, and so who does not already understand that?

                  Perhaps a Fed audit will be dollar positive in the eyes of the market?
                  Oh, wait, you were agreeing with me. Sorry for that.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                    Instead of getting Switzerland-like stability, as Paul foolishly imagines, the more likely result would be Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation.
                    Switz fiscal stability has nothing at all to do with the independence of thier central bank.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                      It has everything to do with the underlying attitude of their banking community that places the interests of Switzerland foremost.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                        Originally posted by bpr View Post
                        I don't know, do you?

                        I'm just thinking that a step in the right direction (toward monetary responsibility) may be considered dollar positive by currency markets. Remember, the whole reason for the dollar's decline is because of fiscal irresponsibility coupled with monetary irresponsibility. This kind of legislation is a step toward redacting some of that irresponsibility, making the Fed accountable for its actions.

                        Note that when TARP failed in the house the dollar went up, the stock market tanked. TARP was wildly irresponsible from a monetary and fiscal perspective, and the dollar resumed its decline upon its passage. This kind of legislation is radically responsible, therefore possibly (?) dollar positive.

                        I'm not sure.

                        Just look, however, on how our largest markets work: they project future earnings and risk and base current prices on future valuations. This goes for stocks as well as Treasuries and the dollar. Everyone's baking future projections into current prices.

                        Perhaps the unveiling of the dollar curtain's inner workings will be less painful than the projected opinions. The way our government works, I wouldn't be surprised if it would look extremely rosy.

                        I'm not an economist, just a skeptic.
                        The reason that things look "better" right now for the economy is precisely because the market has faith that the Fed can continue to act inappropriately, abuse the currency system, steal from the American citizen via inflation, and keep bailing out the boat with a bigger and bigger bailer. And they have a bucket the size of the ocean. I would think if this passes it will create the impression of a neutered Fed, anathema to 100 years of wealth redistribution and centralized power, hence, bad for markets. It might be dollar positive initially, but I would think all those dollars in the world might get dumped at some point as loss of control could lead to some kind of dramatic unexpected event. That assumes that whatever is passed has teeth and isn't a whitewash. I would bet on a whitewash that fools and placates the populist vote, infuriates the libertarians and others who want real change, hence markets, up! Party on! :eek:

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                          Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                          When someone says:
                          If the Fed has been a major source of problems, Congress is much worse. They were the great enablers of the crisis, readily corruptible, bought and paid for by the banking industry. Even AFTER THE CRISIS, the lobbyists seem to own the place. Thus, I fear Congress is the worse of two evils
                          I know they have *no* idea what they are talking about.

                          Gee, I wonder where all that *money* came from from the banking and corporate interests to buy out Congress? Hm, it seems the only entity with authority to create money out of thin air seems to be banks chartered by the Federal Reserve. How ironic?!?

                          He's missing the forest for the trees, either that or he's also been bought and paid by the cartel. The only reason Congress acts the way they do is because of the way the monetary system is enacted by the Federal Reserve. Remove this obstacle, and I guarantee you that Congress will start acting quite a lot different. This is a red herring used to distract one from the real problem.

                          Audit the Fed and then end this joke of a central bank, IMMEDIATELY.
                          Every interest bearing loan is mathematically impossible to pay back.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                            Originally posted by Jay View Post
                            The reason that things look "better" right now for the economy is precisely because the market has faith that the Fed can continue to act inappropriately
                            My speculation is that the international money oligarchs, such as behind the BIS and IMF, are becoming increasingly strong. The Fed seems to be under increased attack. I predict that, after a perhaps messy interregnum, the Dollars status as the worlds singular reserve currency will be replaced with a world meta-currency based on something like the IMF's SDRs. I mention a few of the ways in which the Fed seems to be under attack in the first paragraph of a post a few hours ago, at Alan Grayson: "Have The Federal Reserve Or Prime Brokers Ever Tried To Manipulate The Stock Mark: Post #5. I predict that Fed audit's, by both the IMF and Congress, will show results sometime 2010 that can be used to further discredit the Fed. Just this morning on jtabeb's new iTulip thread ZEDROHEDGE Blows the doors off FED gold manipulation! we see another piece of anti-Fed ammunition exposed.
                            Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                              Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
                              My speculation is that the international money oligarchs, such as behind the BIS and IMF, are becoming increasingly strong. The Fed seems to be under increased attack. I predict that, after a perhaps messy interregnum, the Dollars status as the worlds singular reserve currency will be replaced with a world meta-currency based on something like the IMF's SDRs. I mention a few of the ways in which the Fed seems to be under attack in the first paragraph of a post a few hours ago, at Alan Grayson: "Have The Federal Reserve Or Prime Brokers Ever Tried To Manipulate The Stock Mark: Post #5. I predict that Fed audit's, by both the IMF and Congress, will show results sometime 2010 that can be used to further discredit the Fed. Just this morning on jtabeb's new iTulip thread ZEDROHEDGE Blows the doors off FED gold manipulation! we see another piece of anti-Fed ammunition exposed.
                              I agree, and I think that it is prudent to consider/think about the Fed's reaction to these ever increasing attacks (to try to understand what may come our way).

                              How will the Fed reassert its importance/role? Will it sacrifice the economy for a period of time? Will it sacrifice borrowers (incl those pesky carry trade ones) to pump up the USD?

                              Can it, based on the current economic conditions? Can it, based on the current market delusions?

                              Does it even want to?

                              Personally, I don't think that the Fed will quietly fade away. Unless of course those that benefit from the Fed have moved on to bigger and better ideas.

                              A supranational level organization is tedious and complex. It would basically be formalizing the cooperation that exists between central banks now. However, with formalization comes, among other things: transparency among its members, checks on power, and limits on control. I don't think that Fed stakeholders are all that enthused about these propositions.

                              But - Do they have a non-MAD choice?

                              As long the commodity complex (esp oil/energy) trades in USD, the USD (and the Treasury/Fed) will remain relevant. I think we must keep an eye out for this as a real sign of change.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: HR 1207 Full Financial Services Committee

                                Originally posted by WildspitzE View Post
                                Personally, I don't think that the Fed will quietly fade away.
                                Aw shucks. Ya think ;)?

                                Note that makes two parties (at least) which might be motivated to causing some sort of "dramatic stress event." The Fed defending its turf, and the IMF trying to expand its turf. This could get entertaining.
                                Most folks are good; a few aren't.

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