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WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

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  • WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1253...googlenews_wsj

    In the second quarter, the most recent for which data is available, the Fed bought $164 billion out of the $339 billion in net new Treasurys sold.

    In the mortgage-backed debt markets, the Fed has been buying upward of 80% of the bonds issued by agencies such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

    Net issuance of fixed-income securities in the U.S. after the Fed's purchases is likely to have fallen by 25% in 2009 from last year to $843 billion, according to Barclays Capital estimates.

    The Fed is slated to stop buying Treasurys at the end of October. And traders say a much bigger test will come when the Fed stops vacuuming up mortgage-backed debt, removing a big prop to the real-estate market.

    [..]

    Individual investors are among those gorging on Treasurys this year, data released by the Federal Reserve suggest. Households directly owned $606 billion worth of U.S. Treasurys, up from $576 billion at the end of the second quarter and $240 billion at the start of the year. That figure includes hedge funds, but analysts believe the buying binge has been more at the hands of individuals.

    By comparison, holdings out of China -- a figure that has been closely watched for signs of change -- were essentially flat in the second quarter, rising to $776 billion from $768 billion.

    Analysts believe the trend of U.S. households buying Treasurys has extended through the third quarter as investors migrate away from money-market funds, which are yielding a record low of 0.06%, according to iMoneyNet.

    [..]

    ...many banks who would normally buy that debt are instead buying Treasurys. While Treasury yields are still slightly lower than those offered by mortgage-backed debt, banks aren't required to hold capital against their holdings of Treasurys securities, unlike debt guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

  • #2
    Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

    Does anyone think the Fed will really stop buying Treasurys by November?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

      Originally posted by cjppjc View Post
      Does anyone think the Fed will really stop buying Treasurys by November?
      For a couple months at least? Or maybe just one auction?

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

        Originally posted by ASH View Post
        For a couple months at least? Or maybe just one auction?
        One auction might be all it takes to get the snowball rolling. Who will buy the other 50 percent?

        C1ue was writing in another thread about the weekly/monthly treasury needs. It's not pretty.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

          Originally posted by cjppjc View Post
          One auction might be all it takes to get the snowball rolling. Who will buy the other 50 percent?
          My guess is that the Fed will buy the other 50%, through the backdoor instead of the frontdoor. Perhaps the Fed will pick up some other paper, such as more GSE (Fannie, et al) paper or other even less marketable paper in return for the other party agreeing to hold some more Treasuries.

          This is all just a big shell game; whenever we start to figure out the shells, they can just add another shell or move things around in some more complicated pattern.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

            Originally posted by Mooster
            This is all just a big shell game; whenever we start to figure out the shells, they can just add another shell or move things around in some more complicated pattern.
            But every shell game needs a sucker to put fresh money in otherwise there is no point.

            The foreigners aren't doing it.

            Who will?

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

              Originally posted by cjppjc View Post
              Does anyone think the Fed will really stop buying Treasurys by November?
              How much is left ?

              ~11 billion ?

              http://www.zerohedge.com/article/41-...amps-clockwork

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

                the glass is half full


                China Can’t Buy Enough Bonds as Dollar No Deterrent


                Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- International investors are increasing purchases of Treasuries on a bet U.S. inflation will remain subdued, even as the dollar falls to the lowest levels of the year and the budget deficit tops $1 trillion.

                Investors outside the U.S. bought 43.1 percent of the $1.41 trillion of notes and bonds sold by the Treasury Department this year, compared with 27.1 percent of the $527 billion issued at this point in 2008, government figures show. The Merrill Lynch & Co. Treasury Master Index of U.S. securities returned 1.18 percent in the third quarter after the worst first half on record as demand from the investor group that includes central banks known as indirect bids climbed to record levels at Treasury auctions.

                http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aKvtw723S1c0

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

                  Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                  But every shell game needs a sucker to put fresh money in otherwise there is no point.

                  The foreigners aren't doing it.

                  Who will?
                  From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_game :
                  If no mark wants to play, one of the shills may start the play in order to animate the mark.
                  There are many potential shills in this game, including the Fed and other central banks, the largest financial banks, and less public pools. Even the amount of money is subject to doubt; it is difficult to audit a shell game when one is not allowed to know what shells are in use or how much of what is where or even that any of these unknowns is constant or varying predictably over time.

                  We are not dealing with a known, public list of parties engaging in public transactions and maintaining publicly auditable books, transferring a known volume, changing over time in public ways, of financial assets.

                  Traditional professional accounting, cash flow or monetary analysis techniques are not useful tools in such situations.
                  Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: WSJ headline: Eager Fed Helps Keep Treasury Rally Strong

                    Originally posted by cjppjc View Post
                    Does anyone think the Fed will really stop buying Treasurys by November?
                    Yes.

                    Do you remember what happened when the program was announced? (answer below)

                    In mid-August the Fed told us they would end the program in October. The $300 billion has nearly already been put to use. $253 billion was said to have been spent five weeks ago. http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkl...chase-program/





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