China+Gold

[Sapiens]

Re: China+Gold

But if you think that having near-state-of-the-art weapons means that the country becomes a threat, or can actually defend itself, think again...

In the age of information, isn't that a little bit arrogant thought?

[GRG55]

Re: China+Gold

In the age of information, isn't that a little bit arrogant thought?

How so?

You are familiar, I am sure, of how power structures and decisions function in virtually every one of these nations. This plays a big part in how the selection of military leaders and officers is also made.

In some cases the military is the only part of the official structure that actually functions, at least in a half-assed way. But in most cases the leadership, training, discipline and other necessities for a functioning military in actual wartime circumstances is absent. In the case of the Middle East you can bet at the first sign of pending conflict every Saudi prince that is a trained military fighter pilot [reference my comment about how selection is made above] will be found drinking tea in the safety of the lobby of the Geneva Intercontinental.

This is an extreme example, but illustrates exactly what will be going on in the likes of Venezuela. Lots of prestige to wear a uniform and play around with the latest in Russian made military hardware. No real combat capability whatsoever...

[jpatter666]

Re: China+Gold

In the age of information, isn't that a little bit arrogant thought?

Depends. You could have the best military tech available, but if you use it ineptly, you're going to lose -- badly.

Look at the Arab-Israeli wars -- the latest Russian tech, lots of it and they still lost. Badly. Despite surprise in some of the wars and definite numerical supremacy.

How much that logic applies today is a valid question.

[Sapiens]

Re: China+Gold

FUTURE WARS

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China+Gold

How so?

You are familiar, I am sure, of how power structures and decisions function in virtually every one of these nations. This plays a big part in how the selection of military leaders and officers is also made.

In some cases the military is the only part of the official structure that actually functions, at least in a half-assed way. But in most cases the leadership, training, discipline and other necessities for a functioning military in actual wartime circumstances is absent. In the case of the Middle East you can bet at the first sign of pending conflict every Saudi prince that is a trained military fighter pilot [reference my comment about how selection is made above] will be found drinking tea in the safety of the lobby of the Geneva Intercontinental.

This is an extreme example, but illustrates exactly what will be going on in the likes of Venezuela. Lots of prestige to wear a uniform and play around with the latest in Russian made military hardware. No real combat capability whatsoever...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6845441.ece

Introducing Major General Mao Xinyu.

Hmmmmmm......I wonder if nepotism had anything to do with it?

I'm guessing he earned his rank slides from winning the PLA's pie eating contest......repeatedly.

Maybe his military rank is kinda like Colonel Sanders?

Maybe he's coming after the last of our McJobs?

After taking a number of Army recruit cohorts on their Recruit Induction Training I can say with some authority that Major General Pillsbury couldn't pass a physical fitness test for all the Bear Claws in Boston.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China+Gold

Depends. You could have the best military tech available, but if you use it ineptly, you're going to lose -- badly.

Look at the Arab-Israeli wars -- the latest Russian tech, lots of it and they still lost. Badly. Despite surprise in some of the wars and definite numerical supremacy.

How much that logic applies today is a valid question.

A couple things to keep in mind:

LOTS of Soviet kit sold to the Arabs was "export variant" which had all kinds of condescending names attached to it.

The Soviets were well aware of Israeli/US capabilities and had no interest in having their shiniest kit getting compromised.

There were SOME exceptions......SAM & Radar systems(which Israel did acquire: Op Rooster).

But gear like the MIG 25 Foxbat which was able to overfly Israel for a time was under direct and complete Soviet control.

In regards to very expensive and shiny Saudi kit like F15s, AWACS, Tornados, now Typhoons, et al......it's far more about achieving the following:

1.) Recycle petro dollars back to the west via selling stuff and providing the well-paid, skilled westerns to keep it shiny.

2.) Provide the rabbit-fast reproducing Saudi Royal Mafia a means to extract another 20% "commission" from foreign contracts...to feed from the public trough.

There are many, many reasons for the nearly complete incompetence of Arab militaries(some exceptions being the Jordanians, and specialist paramilitary units focused on leadership preservation), but amongst the biggest in regards to Saudi would be the fact that the military kit procurement and training for pretty much the last 30+ years would have far more to do with geopolitical circlejerking than developing a capable military deterrent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Yamamah

Have a look at how the UK government overtly squashed the SFO investigation not long ago....BIG, BIG, BIG business.

REAL conventional military capability, other than the paranoid importance of leadership preservation, is number eleventeen hundred on the list of things to do for Arab Regimes.

Egypt's President for life Mubarak would surely remember how Sadat got smoked, Syria's President for life Assad would surely remember the lessons from his Dad's knee on how he sacked the entire city of Hama in 1982 to cut out the Muslim Brotherhood like a cancer, and the Saudi Mafia would surely remember the Grand Mosque Seizure in 1979.

From Arab leadership perspective, who cares what Israel is doing? Beyond poking them with an asymmetric and deniable-ish stick on occasion ;) Arab leadership have FAR bigger problems to worry about than beating Israel in a conventional military conflict.

Tools to maintain or extend surveillance/information dominance over their populations is far more important than tanks.

[flintlock]

Re: China+Gold

Depends. You could have the best military tech available, but if you use it ineptly, you're going to lose -- badly.

Look at the Arab-Israeli wars -- the latest Russian tech, lots of it and they still lost. Badly. Despite surprise in some of the wars and definite numerical supremacy.

How much that logic applies today is a valid question.

You beat me to it with the Arab-Israeli wars as an example! They didn't just get beat. They were beaten soundly, despite overwhelming odds in their favor. There's a lot more to a good military than fancy weapon systems. Even the Germans in WWII could be used as an example to some degree, especially in the initial "Blitzkrieg" phase.

[flintlock]

Re: China+Gold

A couple things to keep in mind:

LOTS of Soviet kit sold to the Arabs was "export variant" which had all kinds of condescending names attached to it.

The Soviets were well aware of Israeli/US capabilities and had no interest in having their shiniest kit getting compromised.

There were SOME exceptions......SAM & Radar systems(which Israel did acquire: Op Rooster).

But gear like the MIG 25 Foxbat which was able to overfly Israel for a time was under direct and complete Soviet control.

In regards to very expensive and shiny Saudi kit like F15s, AWACS, Tornados, now Typhoons, et al......it's far more about achieving the following:

1.) Recycle petro dollars back to the west via selling stuff and providing the well-paid, skilled westerns to keep it shiny.

2.) Provide the rabbit-fast reproducing Saudi Royal Mafia a means to extract another 20% "commission" from foreign contracts...to feed from the public trough.

There are many, many reasons for the nearly complete incompetence of Arab militaries(some exceptions being the Jordanians, and specialist paramilitary units focused on leadership preservation), but amongst the biggest in regards to Saudi would be the fact that the military kit procurement and training for pretty much the last 30+ years would have far more to do with geopolitical circlejerking than developing a capable military deterrent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Yamamah

Have a look at how the UK government overtly squashed the SFO investigation not long ago....BIG, BIG, BIG business.

REAL conventional military capability, other than the paranoid importance of leadership preservation, is number eleventeen hundred on the list of things to do for Arab Regimes.

Egypt's President for life Mubarak would surely remember how Sadat got smoked, Syria's President for life Assad would surely remember the lessons from his Dad's knee on how he sacked the entire city of Hama in 1982 to cut out the Muslim Brotherhood like a cancer, and the Saudi Mafia would surely remember the Grand Mosque Seizure in 1979.

From Arab leadership perspective, who cares what Israel is doing? Beyond poking them with an asymmetric and deniable-ish stick on occasion ;) Arab leadership have FAR bigger problems to worry about than beating Israel in a conventional military conflict.

Tools to maintain or extend surveillance/information dominance over their populations is far more important than tanks.

Good point. But there was a time the Arabs had the fantasy of their tanks rolling through Tel Aviv. The 73 war pretty much dispelled them of that. With introduction of nukes into that area will they attempt another Yom Kippur war some day?

[karim0028]

Re: China+Gold

A couple things to keep in mind:

LOTS of Soviet kit sold to the Arabs was "export variant" which had all kinds of condescending names attached to it.

The Soviets were well aware of Israeli/US capabilities and had no interest in having their shiniest kit getting compromised.

There were SOME exceptions......SAM & Radar systems(which Israel did acquire: Op Rooster).

But gear like the MIG 25 Foxbat which was able to overfly Israel for a time was under direct and complete Soviet control.

In regards to very expensive and shiny Saudi kit like F15s, AWACS, Tornados, now Typhoons, et al......it's far more about achieving the following:

1.) Recycle petro dollars back to the west via selling stuff and providing the well-paid, skilled westerns to keep it shiny.

2.) Provide the rabbit-fast reproducing Saudi Royal Mafia a means to extract another 20% "commission" from foreign contracts...to feed from the public trough.

There are many, many reasons for the nearly complete incompetence of Arab militaries(some exceptions being the Jordanians, and specialist paramilitary units focused on leadership preservation), but amongst the biggest in regards to Saudi would be the fact that the military kit procurement and training for pretty much the last 30+ years would have far more to do with geopolitical circlejerking than developing a capable military deterrent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Yamamah

Have a look at how the UK government overtly squashed the SFO investigation not long ago....BIG, BIG, BIG business.

REAL conventional military capability, other than the paranoid importance of leadership preservation, is number eleventeen hundred on the list of things to do for Arab Regimes.

Egypt's President for life Mubarak would surely remember how Sadat got smoked, Syria's President for life Assad would surely remember the lessons from his Dad's knee on how he sacked the entire city of Hama in 1982 to cut out the Muslim Brotherhood like a cancer, and the Saudi Mafia would surely remember the Grand Mosque Seizure in 1979.

From Arab leadership perspective, who cares what Israel is doing? Beyond poking them with an asymmetric and deniable-ish stick on occasion ;) Arab leadership have FAR bigger problems to worry about than beating Israel in a conventional military conflict.

Tools to maintain or extend surveillance/information dominance over their populations is far more important than tanks.

You hit the nail right on the head!

[jheis]

Re: China promises show of force in Oct 1 parade

Just for a little balance, comparing U.S. military spending to the rest of the world's:

http://www.globalissues.org/article/...itary-spending

[pwcmba]

Re: China+Gold

@Sapiens-thanks for the link.:confused:

"This blog is open to invited readers only

http://india-pakistan-war.blogspot.com/
It doesn't look like you have been invited to read this blog. If you think this is a mistake, you might want to contact the blog author and request an invitation."

[jheis]

Re: China promises show of force in Oct 1 parade

The U.S. still vastly outclasses China militarily:


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[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: China+Gold

You beat me to it with the Arab-Israeli wars as an example! They didn't just get beat. They were beaten soundly, despite overwhelming odds in their favor. There's a lot more to a good military than fancy weapon systems. Even the Germans in WWII could be used as an example to some degree, especially in the initial "Blitzkrieg" phase.

Germany had superior weapon systems, but they were hugely outnumbered. You had a country the size of Texas with fewer natural resources and 2.5 times the present population of that state fighting a coalition that controlled a substantial portion of the world's landmass and population.

The only tactical lessons to be learned from WWII is 1) terrorism works, i.e. allied bombing campaigns of civilian targets and 2) courage of the Spartan variety in the face of overwhelming odds and superior industrial production is doomed for failure.

In regards to the Arabs, it is no coincidence that after the Arab-Israeli War, terrorism became the dominant military strategy.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: China promises show of force in Oct 1 parade

The U.S. still vastly outclasses China militarily:

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-daily-...ws-bill-bonner

"You know, most people don't appreciate the fact that there is something about America that is not a humble republic. America is an empire, it is clearly an empire, it has 120 military bases around the world, as many as Rome. It dominates militarily most of the world. This is an empire. It has its own imperial characteristics.

"Much of the national treasure is used to sustain the empire. Much of the military budget in America is greater than all military budgets in the world. It has a Roman-scale military and it has Roman-scale ambition, which is to dominate the world. However, what it doesn't have is Rome's money. Even though I hesitate to say that, because Rome ran out of money too with the reign of Augustus. America is running out of money and it was a long run."

[jpatter666]

Re: China+Gold

Germany had superior weapon systems, but they were hugely outnumbered. You had a country the size of Texas with fewer natural resources and 2.5 times the present population of that state fighting a coalition that controlled a substantial portion of the world's landmass and population.

The only tactical lessons to be learned from WWII is 1) terrorism works, i.e. allied bombing campaigns of civilian targets and 2) courage of the Spartan variety in the face of overwhelming odds and superior industrial production is doomed for failure.

In regards to the Arabs, it is no coincidence that after the Arab-Israeli War, terrorism became the dominant military strategy.

To equivocate the allied (and axis -- let's not forget Rotterdam or the Blitz) bombing campaigns to Arab suicide bombers is a big stretch IMO.

In WWII, the kamikaze pilots made *no* substantial difference. That's the kind of comparison I'd make.

And terrorists now are making no substantial difference either.