US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

[lurker]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

Israel is perhaps the most dangerously unpredictable nation on this planet when it feels seriously threatened.

I think all nations are dangerously unpredictable when they truly feel threatened (as opposed to make-believe threats that are for domestic political purposes). I don't think I'd single Israel out in this regard.

Dropping the old missile shield seems like a wise policy move to me. There was little to be gained from antagonizing the Russians, and the missile shield in Europe didn't seem to be offering protection from the major threats facing the US and Western Europe, which IMO is terrorism (and banksters !), not long range missiles.

[c1ue]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

The discussion has been interesting, but I think is focusing too much on a narrow subject.

The missile shield is a program in development. Barring some extremely surprising hidden developments, it is simply not in a position to give the US any type of world strategic advantage at present.

As always, the notion of a missile shield in Europe protecting the US against a Eurasian (ex. Russia) small scale nuclear missile attack is ludicrous. It is far more likely someone would buy a diesel submarine or mini sub and land an enriched uranium dirty bomb or even a full warhead, then truck it to its US destination. Assuming it isn't smuggled in via the 95%+ uninspected cargo containers...

The real issue is the long term vs. short term Caspian sea play.

The Caspian sea is the last and largest relatively easily tapped oil and natural gas resource area. Pipelines to bring this resource out are blocked by Russia in the North and Iran in the South.

Georgia/Chechnya in the West and Afghanistan in the SE are the only routes towards easy transport via supertanker.

The real reason why the US doesn't want Iran to have nuclear weapons is that an Iranian nuclear weapon could be used to hold said future pipelines hostage as well as threaten US naval forces in the very narrow Persian Gulf.

Iran is far too large for an Iraq or Afghanistan style conflict - even as the latter two military resource black holes still rage.

Iran with a nuclear weapon becomes improbably too risky to 'mess with' as the US has done with other sovereign states in the area - unacceptable according to the Higgins Speech.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

I think all nations are dangerously unpredictable when they truly feel threatened (as opposed to make-believe threats that are for domestic political purposes). I don't think I'd single Israel out in this regard.

I would single Israel out in the following regard. In the last fifty years, they have struck fiercely and without warning to address what they perceived as existential threats more often other nation. The military mega-powers such as the U.S., Russia and China present dangers to others as well, but of different flavors. Israel has lived on the knife edge of its own destruction, with several fights for survival since 1947; everyone living there was more or less literally on the front line of each of those fights; there is no where else to be in Israel.

[lurker]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

I would single Israel out in the following regard. In the last fifty years, they have struck fiercely and without warning to address what they perceived as existential threats more often other nation. The military mega-powers such as the U.S., Russia and China present dangers to others as well, but of different flavors. Israel has lived on the knife edge of its own destruction, with several fights for survival since 1947; everyone living there was more or less literally on the front line of each of those fights; there is no where else to be in Israel.

I agree with you. I think I was previously disagreeing with what I may have (incorrectly) interpreted you were implying.

In other words Israelis are no more dangerous when cornered than any other people, but they have had more reason than most to percieve themselves cornered in recent years.

[D-Mack]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

In regards the S300 - it is certainly possible but have not seen any sources to provide evidence for such speculation.


My own personal take is in the short term it maybe likely to do with Russian co operation in Afghan supply routes and the possibility of Russia making life very difficult for the US in this regard (especially as troop numbers increase) as evidenced this spring, I see it as most likely a quid pro quo, and a rearrangment rather then anything fundamental (I think Engdhal may have got it wrong too).



http://www.reuters.com/article/lates...s/idUSL4525000



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009...anistan-build/

My guess is that this has something to do with Iran and Israel. The U.S. is being nice to Russia in exchange for something. Israel is likely feeling threatened by both Iran's nukes and by further possible deterioration in the U.S. finances, either of which could pose an existential threat to Israel. Israel is perhaps the most dangerously unpredictable predictably dangerous nation on this planet when it feels seriously threatened.

Maybe they are afraid that the window of opportunity is closing

Israeli MP says S-300 missiles may force airstrike on Iran


Washington, 17 September (WashingtonTV)—An Israeli lawmaker said in remarks published on Thursday that the delivery of Russia’s advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to Iran would accelerate a possible Israeli decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“I hope Moscow understands that the deliveries will at least speed up such events, if not trigger them,” Zeev Elkin told the Russian daily, Kommersant, according to the Interfax news agency.

Israel and the United States have pressed Russia to forgo delivering the advanced missile system to Tehran, which would greatly increase Iran’s defense capabilities against a possible airstrike on its nuclear sites.

Elkin said that the missiles would “substantially complicate or make impossible the peaceful settlement of the (Iranian nuclear) program and may force Israel to act sooner than it would under current circumstances,” Interfax reports.


...

http://televisionwashington.com/floa...n&t=2&id=14085

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

In other words Israelis are no more dangerous when cornered than any other people, but they have had more reason than most to percieve themselves cornered in recent years.

Well said.

[KGW]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

I agree with you. I think I was previously disagreeing with what I may have (incorrectly) interpreted you were implying.

In other words Israelis are no more dangerous when cornered than any other people, but they have had more reason than most to percieve themselves cornered in recent years.

Their own behavior since the early 1900's have given them all the reasons to feel cornered. . .This behavior intensified mid-century, thus producing the current malformed, psuedo-theocratic state.

[lurker]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

Their own behavior since the early 1900's have given them all the reasons to feel cornered.

I agree. Violence begets more violence until one or both sides is either completely crushed or sick of all of the violence.

The problem is that "turning the other cheek" has become politically untenable.

I blame the electorates ;)

[D-Mack]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia



Pretty optimistic on the economy (recession is over, couple billions more or less who cares)

[goadam1]

Re: US not on the road to confrontation with Russia

Pretty optimistic on the economy (recession is over, couple billions more or less who cares)

I used to read stratfor. I found it useless. Now that I see him I find him to be an ass. Hey, you are right, the recession from the banking crisis is over. End chapter. Uh, what about the debt load, globalization, the exporting of our manufacturing base? See what happens when you live in the Washington/NY/Interview bubble.