The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

[globaleconomicollaps]

what do you guys think of this?

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0909.html

In other words, the US is heading towards a gas deliverability crisis that will be very damaging to the economy. Today’s conventional wisdom will only make the crisis worse.

for reference:


http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.html

and:
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:UNG

[doom&gloom]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

sounds sensible to me...

[dummass]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

A cold winter could push the tipping point. :eek:

http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/2009/09/02/far/

[ggirod]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

on the other hand, a warm winter is likely because of El Nino, as per the National Weather Service climate prediction center ... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../churchill.php -- unless you happen to live in the southeast, which normally gets cooer with El Nino ... but doesn't burn lots of gas, I would expect ....

So, we get to choose between Ben Franklin and NOAA... tough choice for me. :-)

[dummass]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

I trust the squirrels. According to my contacts, they are preparing for a harsh winter. Watch the cycle of nature. The warnings are there. Cold winter.

[nitroglycol]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

The Farmer's Almanac's accuracy may be overrated. Here's a look at their predictions for 2005, for instance:

The latest Old Farmer's Almanac is out with its usual boast of being 80% correct. But are they really that good? From what I have seen in past years their accuracy is much, much worse than advertised! How about this year?

This study found that the national regional forecast for Winter had both the temperature and precipitation correct only about 13% of the time and Summer forecast was correct just 6% of the time.

The California forecasts for temperature were right only 13% of the time and the precipitation was correct 27% of the time.

Source.

[GRG55]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

I trust the squirrels. According to my contacts, they are preparing for a harsh winter. Watch the cycle of nature. The warnings are there. Cold winter.

Warm winter, cold winter...makes no real difference. The shale gas deliverability and reserves issue has the real potential to overshadow all other factors.

As I have posted before, there is real concern within the technical ranks of some of the major shale gas players regarding the ability of the matrix to produce at economic rates over the multi-decade projected life of these complex and expensive wells. The shale plays are not clones of each other, so what is learned from the Barnett is useful to exploit the Haynesville, Marcellus, etc. but just like children they each have their own personalities and behaviour...no two are exactly alike. If the wells don't perform there will be reserves writedowns [not good for the stock price of the shale gas players] and the real potential for deliverability constraints sometime down the road.

btw, for those speculating or investing in North American nat gas, I would note that the onshore drillers, like Precision, are moving up smartly. The sentiment as expressed by the media remains pretty negative...the only thing that concerns me is that even the cab drivers "know" that natural gas is the only remaining "cheap" energy commodity, and therefore must be a widows and orphans long [too bad we don't have shoeshine boys any more]...

[GRG55]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

The Farmer's Almanac's accuracy may be overrated. Here's a look at their predictions for 2005, for instance:
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Source.
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The Farmer's Almanac used to be very accurate...

...then the FIRE economy era dawned, Goldman Sachs took over control of the weather and everything went for shzt...:rolleyes:

[Starving Steve]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

Starving Steve's forecast for the next three or four winters is WARM and WET in the West, especially California, COLD and DRY in the East. I am more sure of my forecast for the West Coast and less sure of my forecast for the East and Midwest.

NOAA says just this year for El Nino and weak to average El Nino conditions. NOAA says dry in the Pacific NW and only above normal rainfall in Southern California. I say 3 to 4 years of El Nino conditions and average this year for El Nino conditions. I say above normal rainfall all along the West Coast, but especially above normal in California and Baja California.

Baja California has had flooding in the central and southern penninsula already. That's exactly the signature of the El Nino conditions in the Pacific; that's what one would expect to happen. The NOAA model predicted above normal chances for hurricanes (sp?) just for the central tropical Pacific, not so much the eastern tropical Pacific.

I predict a moderately active tropical Pacific, especially in the eastern Pacific, even storms producing some rain for portions of the coast of the Atacama Desert in South America. As with the Northern Hemisphere, there will be 3 to 4 years of these El Nino conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

As for gamblers in the natural gas market, I would bet lower prices ahead. But this market is notoriously volitile (sp?) and very unpredictable.

[Zorro]

Re: The Coming Gas Deliverability Crisis

Starving Steve's forecast for the next three or four winters is WARM and WET in the West, especially California, COLD and DRY in the East. I am more sure of my forecast for the West Coast and less sure of my forecast for the East and Midwest.



As for gamblers in the natural gas market, I would bet lower prices ahead. But this market is notoriously volitile (sp?) "volatile" and very unpredictable.

How would one expect that natural gas prices would fall much lower than they had just two days ago at NYMEX?
The UNG chart shown in this thread does not at all reflect the realities of NG pricing. The chart below reveals that NG has suffered a historic crash of just over 85% in the past 14 months. A record decline in percentage terms and a fall into pricing peaks from 25 years ago. This decline has wiped out nearly evey cent of gains posted in NG since late 2001. UNG is undoubtedly a long term scale in buy.... right now.

http://tinyurl.com/lsz8mm

Z