machine gun marc

[jtabeb]

Re: machine gun marc

If you anticipate correctly what the enemy pilot will do in a dogfight, but respond too quickly, before the enemy actually does that, you're toast.

Actually a dog fight is much more like a chess game or a game of no limit poker.

You just try to chip away at their energy state until you are sure that you have more than them, that's when you go all in and you use up your remaining energy to take the position of advantage and put and end to it.

The point is IT IS very hard to come back from an energy deficit during a dogfight, the other pilot HAS TO make a mistake for you to win. (but you are totally right about "betting the farm" with your energy state too soon. If you were wrong about the other pilot's energy state, you are toast.)

I always plan to win irrespective of the other guy making a mistake. And that's why I invest the way that I do. I always want more energy than the other guy because I don't want to HAVE TO count on the other guy making a mistake, if they do, that's just frosting on the cake.

Words to live by in a dog fight

"You meet a better class of people in the vertical"

True in real life as well.:p

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: machine gun marc

Actually a dog fight is much more like a chess game or a game of no limit poker.

Ah, I'm glad I brought up that comparison. Always fun to hear you explain flying. I'm no pilot, but I can understand the chess comparison. One plays most of the game to slowly gain the advantage of position and pieces, until the opportunity to impose a checkmate presents itself.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: machine gun marc

Ok Cow, I'll bite. What do you think will happen between years 2-5, before the final collapse?

I guess I'm expecting some mix of:

1. Great Britain this last century, with shrinking influence and declining individual wealth,
2. Russia the last two decades, with increasing political and economic dominance by a corrupt oligarchy and declining well being and safety of ordinary citizens, and
3. America during the Carter years, with foreign affairs failures, declining power, rising inflation, stagflation, rising unemployment, gas lines, increasing domestic bureaucracy and social and domestic discord, and increasing dissatisfaction with the politicians in Washington, especially the President.

Look to Chicago, Detroit and California for our future :eek:. Many Americans are going to have to learn to live poorer.

[BuckarooBanzai]

Re: machine gun marc

Yes, Australia, China, emerging markets and seemingly every other human on the planet except for a few lost jungle tribes are entangled with the FIRE economy.

Faber is distinguising between the financial markets and the real economy. The emerging markets, China and Australia have a real underlying economy adequate to meet their needs and (in China, especially) capital reserves adequate to stay afloat in the collapsing financial markets. America and Great Britain have a weaker real economy missing some critical resources, production and manufacturing capability and a hopelessly imbalanced financial market.


Yes, that's his basic argument.

But he kept putting the repeating stimuli in the 12 to 18 month time frame, and the final collapse in the five to ten year time frame.

I wonder what he thinks will happen in the interim, between 18 months and five years out?

He says nothing explicit as to what these "increasingly desparate inflationary measures" might look like during that interim.

Huh. 5 to 10 years? He seems like a starry-eyed optimist to me. I give us 5 to 10 months.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: machine gun marc

Huh. 5 to 10 years? He seems like a starry-eyed optimist to me. I give us 5 to 10 months.

There is that possibility, yes.

Much of the power of the U.S. is below the surface, in sometimes rather corrupt military, financial, business, political, drug or criminal activities. It is possible for DeathStars to blow up catastrophically and suddenly, as in the movies, but usually they take on enormous damage and still seem to keep going. Only after they have been "cut down to size" and had their energy profoundly reduced can they be taken down in most real life situations.

The energy of this DeathStar called the U.S. is the greatest of any enterprise in human history. I predict that it will not go quietly nor quickly into the night.

[*T*]

Re: machine gun marc

I always plan to win irrespective of the other guy making a mistake. And that's why I invest the way that I do. I always want more energy than the other guy because I don't want to HAVE TO count on the other guy making a mistake, if they do, that's just frosting on the cake.

Pure game theory. This is the general principle for winning.

[Raz]

Re: machine gun marc

There is that possibility, yes.

Much of the power of the U.S. is below the service, in sometimes rather corrupt military, financial, business, political, drug or criminal activities. It is possible for DeathStars to blow up catastrophically and suddenly, as in the movies, but usually they take on enormous damage and still seem to keep going. Only after they have been "cut down to size" and had their energy profoundly reduced can they be taken down in most real life situations.

The energy of this DeathStar called the U.S. is the greatest of any enterprise in human history. I predict that it will not go quietly nor quickly into the night.

When I left Dean Witter twenty years ago the same questions were asked of me, since several of us could foresee the ridiculous monetary and fiscal policies then coming into stride. (A couple of the other brokers had the misplaced idea that I was smart.)

My answer was that the arrogance and greed of the political and monetary authorities would core out the strength of the United States, and the insatiable demands of the Left would administer the coup-de-gras. But it would take far longer than any of us thought.
Two of them checked in with me in 2001-02 to ask if this was it; I said yes, because even I didn't believe Greenspan could be that reckless, and I didn't believe "W" to be the total idiot that he was.

Boy, was I wrong! They revved her up once again.
But this time I just don't see how they can sustain another phony recovery in the real economy.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: machine gun marc

When I left Dean Witter twenty years ago the same questions were asked of me, since several of us could foresee the ridiculous monetary and fiscal policies then coming into stride. (A couple of the other brokers had the misplaced idea that I was smart.)

My answer was that the arrogance and greed of the political and monetary authorities would core out the strength of the United States, and the insatiable demands of the Left would administer the coup-de-gras. But it would take far longer than any of us thought.
Two of them checked in with me in 2001-02 to ask if this was it; I said yes, because even I didn't believe Greenspan could be that reckless, and I didn't believe "W" to be the total idiot that he was.

Boy, was I wrong! They revved her up once again.
But this time I just don't see how they can sustain another phony recovery in the real economy.

It is amazing how long it has taken for the entire phony system to crumble. But it is crumbling as we speak and the Dollar will be its greatest casualty.

Correction: the American people will be its greatest casualty.

[Verrocchio]

Re: machine gun marc

From the book about him, Riding the Millennial Storm, he's a kind of motorbike riding hippy bankster. Having lived in Switzerland for a while, quite a few Swiss people have slightly odd tastes.

The hair style and BMW motorcycle are consistent with Dr. Faber's independent interpretation of events. He never swallowed (nor did he regurgitate) the Wall Street spin and what passed for financial news in the MSM during the bubble years.

[aaron]

Re: machine gun marc

It is amazing how long it has taken for the entire phony system to crumble. But it is crumbling as we speak and the Dollar will be its greatest casualty.

Correction: the American people will be its greatest casualty.

I am not so sure the American people will be the biggest casualty. I suspect it will be those countries that do not fall in line.

[BuckarooBanzai]

Re: machine gun marc

There is that possibility, yes.

Much of the power of the U.S. is below the surface, in sometimes rather corrupt military, financial, business, political, drug or criminal activities. It is possible for DeathStars to blow up catastrophically and suddenly, as in the movies, but usually they take on enormous damage and still seem to keep going. Only after they have been "cut down to size" and had their energy profoundly reduced can they be taken down in most real life situations.

The energy of this DeathStar called the U.S. is the greatest of any enterprise in human history. I predict that it will not go quietly nor quickly into the night.

Denninger has a good piece this weekend. He implies that we are well into the endgame, and makes a pretty good case.

Part 1: http://market-ticker.org/archives/14...rings.....html

Part 2: http://market-ticker.org/archives/14...s-Part-II.html

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: machine gun marc

Denninger has a good piece this weekend. He implies that we are well into the endgame, and makes a pretty good case.

Part 1: http://market-ticker.org/archives/14...rings.....html

Part 2: http://market-ticker.org/archives/14...s-Part-II.html

He just flunked his audition for that Mary Poppins role .

I'll agree with him that we cannot continue on the current trends for long, perhaps months, perhaps two or three years.

But I have no idea, and I doubt Karl does either, just where this goes next, when the current trends fail. I doubt a single passenger on the Titanic knew just how that ship would behave in its last few hours afloat, as it broke up and tilted this way and that. It took us another half century to figure out how the plates and compartments buckled and flooded. We're still debating the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, a couple millenia later. The current pickle is a tad more complex than either of those examples, though whether it is more or less catastrophic, we don't know yet.

[sunskyfan]

Re: machine gun marc

Okay. Since we seem to be predicting things here I think a little "reality" need to be injected. Sometimes we get caught up in the metrics and forget some basics.

America is the number one agricultural power in the world. We can talk Oil and Gold and Dollars until we are blue in the face but that fact will not change. We have access to the most fresh water and we have so much good farmland we build idiot houses on it. We also have a lot of room. Our greatest mistake has been to think that we are a financial empire. We bought into Wall Street BS long ago and have acted stupidly trying to support that model. It could be the best thing in the world if these guys are moved quietly into the night to a country who needs the "lie" to feel satisfied. We really don't. If we stop being stupid we can trade our renewable resource, food, for many decades for all the toys we will ever want from the rest of the world. A low-energy high-tech agricultural economy with entertainment and enough armaments to keep the rest of the world in-check is very doable. And, if we pull our head out of our cultural ass the great untapped world resource that is South America is ours to naturally merge with.

The future looks quite bright for the US and the Western Hemisphere if we would just stop spending our time trying to fix the Eastern Hemisphere's problems and using most of our resources trying to make the impossible task of a life financially and physically risk free for those above the age of 60.

Sometimes you have to take a deep breath and think. Let the "world dollar" tank and let's get on with our lives.

[Quincy K]

Re: machine gun marc

Denninger has a good piece this weekend. He implies that we are well into the endgame, and makes a pretty good case.

Part 1: http://market-ticker.org/archives/14...rings.....html

Part 2: http://market-ticker.org/archives/14...s-Part-II.html

All the FED has to do is continue to buy the bad debt from the banks. The banks will then renew credit growth by issuing new unsecured debt to revolving bankrupt Americans. Until someone checks our shit at the door, this Ponzi can continue to infinity. We are going to keep monetizing because we have no other choice. Everyone and their mother knows that we are not going to pay back our debts in today's dollar. All these pundits worrying about future liabilities, balancing the budget, reducing the defecit. Blah.Blah.Blah. We are inevitably going to default so it doesn't matter if we have ten trillion of debt or ten thousand trillion of debt. Double down, let it ride and keep the markers coming.

We passed the Rubicon many, many years ago which was ultimately confirmed by Greenspan's housing bubble...the bubble of all bubbles.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: machine gun marc

The future looks quite bright for the US and the Western Hemisphere if we would just stop spending our time trying to fix the Eastern Hemisphere's problems and using most of our resources trying to make life financially and physically risk free for those above the age of 60.

I agree that the U.S. has these advantages. This explains in good part the dominance of the U.S. this last century.

We've made a rather big mess of it however. The impact of the problems now becoming visible to many of us will permanently alter our future, and cast a dark shadow for decades.