"employment sank by over 1 million" last month

[jk]

""First, employment in this survey showed a plunge of 392,000, but that number was flattered by a surge in self-employment (whether these newly minted consultants were making any money is another story) as wage & salary workers (the ones that work at companies, big and small) plunged 637,000 — the largest decline since March (when the stock market was testing its lows for the cycle). As an aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes a number from the Household survey that is comparable to the nonfarm survey (dubbed the population and payroll-adjusted Household number), and on this basis, employment sank — brace yourself — by over 1 million, which is unprecedented. We shall see if the nattering nabobs of positivity discuss that particularly statistic in their post-payroll assessments; we are not exactly holding our breath."

david rosenberg, quoted in john mauldin's letter this week

[marvenger]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

wasn't iTulip predicting 1 mil jobs a month to go for a year or so?

[jk]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

wasn't iTulip predicting 1 mil jobs a month to go for a year or so?

that's why i posted the quote. but i assume the itulip prediction was really meant to apply to the official release from the establishment survey. similarly, i assume the 20% unemployment prediction was to apply to..... u3? u6?

[mesyn191]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

It was to apply to U3, but in a recent article EJ said that he has given up hope of the gov. actually reporting unemployment and other numbers properly so he retracted his earlier statement. He does think real unemployment is around that number right now BTW, can't remember which article he brought it up in...

[charliebrown]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t06.htm

I can argue that employment went up.
According to the A6 table, employment in the 25 and over went up.
The numbers below are from the non-seasonally adjusted section.
Most of the damage occurred in the under 24 year category. How many
of these people are students going back to school? Or would those not show until the October numbers.



Aug. July Aug.
2008 2009 2009
25 years and over........................ 125,812 121,751 121,804



However the total employment numbers dont figure in new employees settling for a crummy job because that is all that was available. Im still with the itulip thesis, these number will get worse. I would still like to see someone post a national income number. I think that would be most telling.

Along with most others i think that there can be no real recovery until the jobs situation gets better, both in numbers and job quality. The unemployment numbers dont reflect this, and I am looking for a more meaningful statistic.

oh rats I can't figure out how to preserve the formatting of the table. :confused:

[marvenger]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

reduction in working hours per employee I imagine was quite hard to predict, seems like the significance of this as a strategy to curb costs is unprecedented. In Australia a lot of workers are being forced to take their paid leave, once this runs out the unemployment should start kicking up if the demand doesn't return.

[metalman]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

site:itulip.com job losses 1 million per month

Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen, nov. 2008

'In total we see the US economy losing between seven and 13 million jobs by the end of 2009 representing a 5% to 10% increase in unemployment.'

[jk]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

site:itulip.com job losses 1 million per month

Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen, nov. 2008

'In total we see the US economy losing between seven and 13 million jobs by the end of 2009 representing a 5% to 10% increase in unemployment.'

[emphasis added]

we're getting mighty close

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the employment situation report for August, which is the 20th month of the economic downturn. The report showed an additional 216,000 jobs lost in August for a total of 6.9 million jobs lost this recession.

[emphasis in original]
http://www.epi.org/publications/entr..._jobs_picture/

[Mega]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

Let me be very clear here:-

Are you saying that America is losing a MILLION Jobs a month?

Mike

[metalman]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

Let me be very clear here:-

Are you saying that America is losing a MILLION Jobs a month?

Mike

yes, mega. but don't get excited. these are all insignificant non-oligarch jobs. you know... little people... debt serfs... schmucks who paid into the social security & medicaide & medicare system all their lives... paid their taxes all their lives... paid into their pensions all their lives... 'saved money' in their 401k roach motels... penalty for early withdrawal!... when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them 'no stock market bubble'... bought a house at the top of the market when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them 'no housing bubble'... sold gold jewlrey at 15 cents on the dollar when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them gold prices will fall... in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009...

your average, trusting middle class americans...

you know, morons.

now they are out of work.

more fodder for our all-serf, er, i mean, all-volunteer military.

[aaron]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

yes, mega. but don't get excited. these are all insignificant non-oligarch jobs. you know... little people... debt serfs... schmucks who paid into the social security & medicaide & medicare system all their lives... paid their taxes all their lives... paid into their pensions all their lives... 'saved money' in their 401k roach motels... penalty for early withdrawal!... when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them 'no stock market bubble'... bought a house at the top of the market when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them 'no housing bubble'... sold gold jewlrey at 15 cents on the dollar when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them gold prices will fall... in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009...

your average, trusting middle class americans...

you know, morons.

now they are out of work.

more fodder for our all-serf, er, i mean, all-volunteer military.

One of your best posts.

[jtabeb]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

same as in france during their hyperinflation.

No jobs except for wars (only way many people managed not to starve).

So choices are Starve and risk death, or Not starve and risk death, easy choice, if you can call it a choice.

[Mega]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

yes, mega. but don't get excited. these are all insignificant non-oligarch jobs. you know... little people... debt serfs... schmucks who paid into the social security & medicaide & medicare system all their lives... paid their taxes all their lives... paid into their pensions all their lives... 'saved money' in their 401k roach motels... penalty for early withdrawal!... when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them 'no stock market bubble'... bought a house at the top of the market when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them 'no housing bubble'... sold gold jewlrey at 15 cents on the dollar when cnbc/fox news/npr/wsj/nytimes/etc. told them gold prices will fall... in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009...

your average, trusting middle class americans...

you know, morons.

now they are out of work.

more fodder for our all-serf, er, i mean, all-volunteer military.

You meam there might be a WIFE there for me at last?
Mike

[raja]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

same as in france during their hyperinflation.

No jobs except for wars (only way many people managed not to starve).

So choices are Starve and risk death, or Not starve and risk death, easy choice, if you can call it a choice.

There's always the choice of getting revenge and risking death, i.e., revolution . . . . IMO, that would be much more satisfying than your two choices. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. :eek:

[touchring]

Re: "employment sank by over 1 million" last month

There's always the choice of getting revenge and risking death, i.e., revolution . . . . IMO, that would be much more satisfying than your two choices. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. :eek:

It actually happened in indonesia at the end of the rule of the strongman Suharto during the Asian financial crisis when Indonesian mob went on a rampage, killing and raping Chinese indonesians. Many Chinese indonesians owned banks that went bust during the financial crisis.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...0/ai_50189372/