Prechter throws in towel on Gold

[renewable]

Prechter interviewed on Financial Sense: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcas...09-0905-3a.mp3

It's probably going to hold up pretty well during the deflationary drop; but I think it's going to dissapoint the people who think it's going to 5, 10 or 20 thousand dollars an ounce. That may happen after the deflation is over, but it's not going to happen during that time [the deflation].

I remember years ago deflationists telling me that they'd be picking up cheap gold because Prechter told them so.

Ooops.

[Spartacus]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

At least Prechter's reasoning on Gold was completely logical, self-consistent (within Prechter's world view) and consistent with history (as far as I know the history)

Gold's price during the great depression only went up because the government forced it up

Until that re-pricing, the price of Gold had been dropping.

In a depression today, the government would have no reason to do that.

Mish's stance on gold is a complete freakshow of illogic, divorced from any historical precedent.

Prechter interviewed on Financial Sense: http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcas...09-0905-3a.mp3



I remember years ago deflationists telling me that they'd be picking up cheap gold because Prechter told them so.

Ooops.

[renewable]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

At least Prechter's reasoning on Gold was completely logical, self-consistent (within Prechter's world view) and consistent with history (as far as I know the history)

I do rate Prechter; conquer the crash was a good read. But should have known that the confusion in the book relating to gold was due to Prechter being confused about gold himself.

In the interview, his reason for gold staying high is that 'it didn't go up much in the first place'. Not all of Prechter's followers may agree, when they could have bought gold under $300.

[metalman]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

I do rate Prechter; conquer the crash was a good read. But should have known that the confusion in the book relating to gold was due to Prechter being confused about gold himself.

In the interview, his reason for gold staying high is that 'it didn't go up much in the first place'. Not all of Prechter's followers may agree, when they could have bought gold under $300.

With all of this panicking into dollars we get asked a lot about deflation. "Why don't you just admit that a 1930s style depression and deflation spiral has begun and soon there will be soup lines and we'll be buying cars for $2,000 and gold will trade at $100." The reason is that we are 100% certain that dollar appreciation that we call "Ka" as part of Ka-Poom Theory will not turn into a deflation spiral. Cars are not going to cost $2,000, although there will be plenty of cheap used cars for sale, and gold will not go to $100. Here's why. The truth about deflation - Eric Janszen, oct. 2008

[gasull]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

From Prechter's website:

As the September 2 issue of our Monday-Wednesday-Friday Short Term Update explains, near-term patterns in gold are bullish.

His view is that there is a corrective rally that will continue for the following weeks to a month, then gold and silver will go down for the following months to half a year, and then it will go up in a bullish market.

http://e-wavecharts.com/

[Starving Steve]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

With the putz from Princeton running the Fed, I don't see much of anything going down except for the value of the U.S. dollar. De-valuation of the dollar is his game, and let's finally call a spade, "a spade".

[metalman]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

From Prechter's website:

His view is that there is a corrective rally that will continue for the following weeks to a month, then gold and silver will go down for the following months to half a year, and then it will go up in a bullish market.

http://e-wavecharts.com/

< 50% his previous 3548 short term calls were correct, yet hope springs eternal for idiot wave believers who seen to never bother keeping score as their bank accounts shrink.

[gasull]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

< 50% his previous 3548 short term calls were correct, yet hope springs eternal for idiot wave believers who seen to never bother keeping score as their bank accounts shrink.

Can you support your claim with some data?

I think that all EJ, Prechter and Mish will be right at the right time. We will have ups and downs in a long term deflation trend for years, and then high inflation, or even hiperinflation, will kick in. So everyone will claim victory: EJ will say that ka-poom theory worked once again, Mish will say we had in fact deflation for years, and Prechter will say that the ups and downs and the main trends followed an Elliot Wave model.

All them three are very smart, and all them three will be right, at the right time.

[gasull]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

It amazes me how people don't see that the main difference between EJ and Mish is semantics. EJ says we have monetary inflation and debt deflation. Mish combines both things together and says that, all things considered, we have deflation. So they are both right using their own definitions, but obviously they're both going to be wrong if we read them using each other's definitions.

It's like those discussions you can see on the Internets about how bad or great capitalism/free-market/socialism/etc. is. You realize different groups use different definitions for these conceps, so they are talking about different things, but using the same words.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

"The period of deflation that occurred in the early 1930s is the one that most people think about when they hear the word "deflation." What they really mean is a deflation spiral, with the money supply imploding, credit contacting, large scale bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and falling economic output."

Hum. The fundamental assumption that MAY be in error is that the FED and foreign governments have ultimate control. This "eye-of-the-hurricane passing overhead" notion of deflation may be correct but there is an assumption that there is not a novel historical phenomenon going on. Some of us are not convinced that is the case. Who will be the pinhead then?

[renewable]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

From Prechter's website:

His view is that there is a corrective rally that will continue for the following weeks to a month, then gold and silver will go down for the following months to half a year, and then it will go up in a bullish market.

http://e-wavecharts.com/

Prechter says cheap gold tomorrow? Hmmm..... sure I've heard that before somewhere

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

It amazes me how people don't see that the main difference between EJ and Mish is semantics. EJ says we have monetary inflation and debt deflation. Mish combines both things together and says that, all things considered, we have deflation. So they are both right using their own definitions, but obviously they're both going to be wrong if we read them using each other's definitions.

It's like those discussions you can see on the Internets about how bad or great capitalism/free-market/socialism/etc. is. You realize different groups use different definitions for these conceps, so they are talking about different things, but using the same words.

plus one...

[jtabeb]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

plus one...

2+, violent agreement is how I would classify the positions.


My personal term has been "hyper-inflationary deflation".

"Hyper-inflation" in monetary and financial aggregates.

"Deflation" in physical economic output.

The point is that these are simultaneous phenomena. (AKA Ka-Poom) or Zimbabwe or Argentina or Russian collapse.

This chart spells out how.

[media]http://www.schillerinstitute.org/graphics/Art_Work/collapse_crit_blu_trimmed.jpg[/media]

[metalman]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

"The period of deflation that occurred in the early 1930s is the one that most people think about when they hear the word "deflation." What they really mean is a deflation spiral, with the money supply imploding, credit contacting, large scale bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and falling economic output."

Hum. The fundamental assumption that MAY be in error is that the FED and foreign governments have ultimate control. This "eye-of-the-hurricane passing overhead" notion of deflation may be correct but there is an assumption that there is not a novel historical phenomenon going on. Some of us are not convinced that is the case. Who will be the pinhead then?

it's not a 'eye of the hurricane' notion. it's 100 accurate forecasts over > 10 yrs here of a process... how the fed prevents deflation spirals and the side effects of those policies.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Prechter throws in towel on Gold

I think that you, and frankly EJ, miss the point here. There is no argument with the itulip hypothesis of the cause and effect cycle that is the FED/DOLLAR/WORLD/GREED dynamic at least not from me. The question is whether as we experience something which the magnitudes are far greater than any situation correlating with the "100 accurate forecasts over > 10 years here". Correlation between small scale and large scale events can be useful and even predictive but if you think that "magnitudes" don't matter you are fooling yourself.

To give you an analogy people who study wave like phenomena (not economic wave theory but physics) talk about Shock. You can think of it in a couple ways but basically it when the energy in a wave is high enough to change the medium or material in which the wave is traveling. Normal fundamental linear analysis breaks down at that point and past predictions have their bases challenged.

I think we have experienced a Shock event. The past informs us and itulip's record is impressive however the arrogance of the "pin head" picture pretty much speaks for itself.