ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

[Slimprofits]

http://www.reuters.com/article/press...009+BW20090903

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased significantly in August. ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for August registered 63.1 percent, 21.8 percentage points higher than the 41.3 percent reported in July. In August, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 23 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 71 percent, and 6 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

In August, 13 industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Educational Services; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The three industries reporting prices as decreasing for the month of August are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Finance & Insurance.

Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Index

Aug 2009 23 71 6 63.1
Jul 2009 13 59 28 41.3
Jun 2009 26 60 14 53.7
May 2009 17 68 15 46.9

[jk]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

i couldn't find the prices RECEIVED numbers in the report. the issue is whether those surveyed are able to pass on their higher costs or are just having their margins squeezed.

edit: just checked the original report. apparently prices received is not part of the index.

[FRED]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

http://www.reuters.com/article/press...009+BW20090903

Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased significantly in August. ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for August registered 63.1 percent, 21.8 percentage points higher than the 41.3 percent reported in July. In August, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 23 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 71 percent, and 6 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.

In August, 13 industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the following order: Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Educational Services; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The three industries reporting prices as decreasing for the month of August are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Finance & Insurance.

Prices % Higher % Same % Lower Index

Aug 2009 23 71 6 63.1
Jul 2009 13 59 28 41.3
Jun 2009 26 60 14 53.7
May 2009 17 68 15 46.9

[WDCRob]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

Manufacturing employment is declining, delivery of supplies to manufactuers is slowing, manufacturers and customer inventories are very very low.

Thus, as demand is being 'stimulated,' you're seeing the leading edge of the iTulip predicted supply-shock induced price increases.

That about right?

[don]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

Great chart, FRED!

[Fiat Currency]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

FRED - Is that U.S. Manufacturing only ... or a larger view? Nice chart BTW.

[touchring]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

commodity prices have gone up quite a lot recently with the China grab, could that be the reason?

[Slimprofits]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%









http://www.kansascityfed.org/MFGSURV/PR_2009-08-24.html (mostly no change from July to August in prices received)

[jk]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

http://www.kansascityfed.org/MFGSURV/PR_2009-08-24.html (mostly no change from July to August in prices received)

so prices received are still dropping [1st graph] or stabilizing after dropping for some time [2nd graph]. either way, with prices paid rising sharply, this is a formula for lower profits. hard to see this as good for equities.

[metalman]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

Manufacturing employment is declining, delivery of supplies to manufactuers is slowing, manufacturers and customer inventories are very very low.

Thus, as demand is being 'stimulated,' you're seeing the leading edge of the iTulip predicted supply-shock induced price increases.

That about right?

was the forecast itulip q4 2008 for 2h 2009... data coming in... confirming. :eek:

[Slimprofits]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

so prices received are still dropping [1st graph] or stabilizing after dropping for some time [2nd graph]. either way, with prices paid rising sharply, this is a formula for lower profits. hard to see this as good for equities.

Note that is regional information from the Fed banks in Dallas, Philly and Kansas City.

I assumed that the availability of data from every Fed bank would be the same, but couldn't find the prices received data for San Francisco region and a couple of others.

[Slimprofits]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
September 28, 2009

http://dallasfed.org/data/outlook/2009/tmos0909k.html

[Slimprofits]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

Prices received continue to rise in the 10th district:

http://www.kc.frb.org/MFGSURV/2009Sep24mfg.htm

[Starving Steve]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

Thank you for a very nice table of figures. Everything is clearly explained in plain English, understandable by everyone, and without Greenspanese.

[mmr]

Re: ISM Prices Paid Index surged forward in August by 21.8%

September update -

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

• "Purchasing remains a challenge as suppliers now seem to be trying to raise pricing at any sign of life in the economy." (Computer & Electronic Products)
• "Business is picking up — lots of opportunities." (Primary Metals)
• "Agricultural commodities continue to weaken, with the exception of the domestic and world sugar markets." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
• "Automotive demand continues to be strong even after 'cash for clunkers.'" (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "Business remains slow, with no sign of improvement again this month." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE SEPTEMBER 2009
Index	Series Index September	Series Index August	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend* (Months)
PMI	52.6	52.9	-0.3	Growing	Slower	2
New Orders	60.8	64.9	-4.1	Growing	Slower	3
Production	55.7	61.9	-6.2	Growing	Slower	4
Employment	46.2	46.4	-0.2	Contracting	Faster	14
Supplier Deliveries	58.0	57.1	+0.9	Slowing	Faster	4
Inventories	42.5	34.4	+8.1	Contracting	Slower	41
Customers' Inventories	39.0	39.0	0	Too Low	Same	6
Prices	63.5	65.0	-1.5	Increasing	Slower	3
Backlog of Orders	53.5	52.5	+1.0	Growing	Faster	2
Exports	55.0	55.5	-0.5	Growing	Slower	3
Imports	52.0	49.5	+2.5	Growing	From Contracting	1
OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Slower	5
Manufacturing Sector				Growing	Slower	2

*Number of months moving in current direction.


COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (3); Copper (4); Copper Based Products (3); Diesel Fuel; Plastic Products; Polypropylene (3); PVC; Stainless Steel (2); Stainless Steel Products (2); Steel (3); and Steel Products (3).
Commodities Down in Price

No commodities are reported down in price.
Commodities in Short Supply

Electronic Components is the only commodity reported in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.