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Re: Was Russia's 'Arctic Sea' Carrying Missiles to Iran?
Did you follow what the speculation was? If the ship held Russian missiles to which Israel objected, then why were the hijackers Russian, not Israelie, and why were the hijackers even still anywhere near the ship when it was "found" again by the Russians? Color me confused.Originally posted by blazespinnaker View PostMost folks are good; a few aren't. -
Re: Was Russia's 'Arctic Sea' Carrying Missiles to Iran?
This is more-or-less the plot of Infinity Ward's game title "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare." (Russian cargo ship carrying WMD to Middle Eastern rogue state goes missing because raided by UK commando team; Russians gloss it over as "lost in a storm".) I hear the game is the most popular first-person shooter of all time. I wonder if Simon Shuster is a fan?Originally posted by blazespinnaker View PostComment
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Re: Was Russia's 'Arctic Sea' Carrying Missiles to Iran?
Weren't they on the wrong ocean for that ?
Wll they ever deliver the official stuff ?
Russia 'losing to China on Iran S-300 quest'
Iran is reportedly seeking to buy a Chinese-made air defense system which is a variant of the Russian S-300.
Press TV - In its quest for an advanced air defense system, Iran has reportedly shifted its hopes from Russia to China which owns a replica of the controversial Russian S-300.
As Iran's quest for the advanced Russian-made S-300 air defense system is believed to have hit rock bottom, a report by RIA Novosti said Tehran is eying a Chinese-made HQ-9 surface-to-air missile under the name FD-2000 -- recently put on the export market.
The HongQi-9/FD-2000 reportedly combines elements "borrowed" from Russia's S-300 and America's MIM-104 Patriot.
,....
Iran has been negotiating a deal with Russia to obtain the sophisticated defense system since 2007. However, neither side has so far issued an official confirmation on the delivery of the S-300 to Iran.
Later media reports claimed that Russia's plan to turn a "new page" in its ties with the United States is likely to prompt Moscow to shelve the delivery of the S-300 system to Iran.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari, however, said in April that the contract to buy Russia's S-300 advance missile system is still effective.Iran has been negotiating a deal with Russia to obtain the sophisticated defense system since 2007. However, neither side has so far issued an official confirmation on the delivery of the S-300 to Iran.
Later media reports claimed that Russia's plan to turn a "new page" in its ties with the United States is likely to prompt Moscow to shelve the delivery of the S-300 system to Iran.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mahdi Safari, however, said in April that the contract to buy Russia's S-300 advance missile system is still effective.
http://www.payvand.com/news/09/may/1109.htmlComment
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Re: Was Russia's 'Arctic Sea' Carrying Missiles to Iran?
Certainly strange.....and it would be within the capabilities of the IDF(as well as a number of other nations) to successfully takedown a vessel unilaterally in that AO via means other than conventional VBSS, but I would think the outcome would differ IF it was the IDF.
IF it was about undeclared weapons cargo, why would those threatened by the arms go to the trouble of a dangerous open water takedown when it would be far simpler and easier for the ship to develop a very serious problem in harbour?
Simpler, cheaper, cleaner...
All speculation.....Comment
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Re: Was Russia's 'Arctic Sea' Carrying Missiles to Iran?
Hi lakedaemonian... I agree with your comment about how elaborate the hypothetical action was. What is your take on the likelihood of Israel "picking a fight" so overtly with Russia? I have a hard time envisioning how stopping one shipment (of something) would be worth the lasting enmity of a country like Russia... unless the cargo was functional nuclear weapons and it wasn't the Russian government doing the shipping. I think Russia's capacity to make life difficult for Israel is such as to discourage so direct a confrontation over lower stakes. Bombing a reactor site like Osirak is one thing -- reactors being costly and time-consuming to build. But almost anything that can be shipped once can be shipped again. I don't see how ongoing interdiction is an option for something that a country as large as Russia wants to move, so it doesn't make sense to me that Israel would slap Russia in the face to stop a one time shipment... unless it wasn't the Russian government doing the shipping, and the likelihood of follow-on shipments was low.Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
Myself, I think the "secret weapons shipment" theory is on the spicy end of speculation. I assume there's something more to this than the official version, but maybe not quite so drammatic as the plot from a video game.Comment
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Re: Was Russia's 'Arctic Sea' Carrying Missiles to Iran?
On the Israeli side of the house....they have a long history of known unconventional operations operating far from home in non-permissive environments:Originally posted by ASH View Post
IDF naval commando operations in Libyan waters
IDF/Intelligence op to "repo" paid in full patrol boats interned in France
IDF/Intelligence op to damage Iraqi reactor components in France
Intelligence ops for targeted killing of terrorists in Europe
Add to that the mass exodus of Russian Jews to Israel in the 80's and it's probably safe to say Israel has developed some strong Int capabilities directed at Russia and a higher comfort level to operate there as an indirect result.
Israel has a long history of success in unconventional operations with few publically known failures.....so if they were involved I suspect it would have to have been very high value cargo.
I think IF there is any link to Israel it would probably be more likely to involve transnational organized crime......unfortunately, the strong links between Russia/Israel due to the substantial Russian expat/ Israeli naturalized population includes significant organized crime components....the possibility of non-state actors involved could be very high.
In regards to Israeli willingness to make a big fat withdrawal from it's diplomatic "karmic bank account" with Russia.....again I think it would have to involve exceptional cargo.
What I sense with Israel is an accelerated commitment to spread it's "eggs" around a bit more than just leaving them all in the US basket.
Israeli efforts to nurture relationships with PRC China(while tapering off with it's old relationships with rogues like Taiwan/South Africa) via tech transfer since the 80's; arms sales/high level military partnership/tech transfer ands commercial activity with India; love/hate relationship with Russia that I have no idea where it's headed; and a seed planted with Brazil.
To me it seems like Israel is trying pretty hard to nurture it's relations with some nations who already hold UNSC Vetos, or who probably will some day.
So direct Israeli involvement seems unlikely to me....but just speculation and my depreciating 0.02c.Comment
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