Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

[vinoveri]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

answer to 'why do you expect a sell off to 500 - 600 s&p befoe year's end?'

that was a bet the farm call aug. 17. we shall see.

I did not interpret the SPX to 500-600 by year's end a "bet the farm" call, but a more than/highley likely type of prediction (don't bet the farm), but maybe I misinterpreted.

[jpatter666]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

I did not interpret the SPX to 500-600 by year's end a "bet the farm" call, but a more than/highley likely type of prediction (don't bet the farm), but maybe I misinterpreted.

Got to agree on that Metalman, I saw it as a "high-probability" call, but nowhere near a we-are-absolutely-sure-this-is-coming thing.

On the other hand....Fred/EJ would you care to comment? Need to know if I should double-down on the puts! :cool:

[cindykimlisa]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

Dump: $37,500 (-50%) Sept. 2009 - Jan. 2010
Pump: $43,125 (+50%) Feb. 2010 - Nov. 2010
Dump: $21,562 (-50%) Dec. 2010 - Nov 2012
At the end of it, who has 80% of the original $100,000?

I always thought this was funny! The math is incorrect!

Cindy

[metalman]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

Dump: $37,500 (-50%) Sept. 2009 - Jan. 2010
Pump: $43,125 (+50%) Feb. 2010 - Nov. 2010
Dump: $21,562 (-50%) Dec. 2010 - Nov 2012
At the end of it, who has 80% of the original $100,000?

I always thought this was funny! The math is incorrect!

Cindy

$37,500 * 1.5 = $56,250 not $43,125.

woops!

that's a paulson pump & dump!

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

Dump: $37,500 (-50%) Sept. 2009 - Jan. 2010
Pump: $43,125 (+50%) Feb. 2010 - Nov. 2010
Dump: $21,562 (-50%) Dec. 2010 - Nov 2012
At the end of it, who has 80% of the original $100,000?

I always thought this was funny! The math is incorrect!

Cindy

Cute - good eye.

It looks like someone added 15%, not 50%, to get from $37,500 to $43,125.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

I do not believe that our current System can handle a 5k DOW, 1995 house prices and 20 percent U-6 UE.

Everything in America will go to hell.

But this is precisely why the Fed will come to the rescue. They will never let the 1930s Depression re-occur. So, the Bernanke Fed will flood the system with more cheap money, and all boats: stocks, bonds, homes, commodities, whatever, will rise in the rising tide of monetary inflation.

The game ends when the world refuses to accept U.S. dollars, the dollar sinks, price inflation re-emerges, gold breaks over $1000, and Bernanke can't raise interest rates because the economy in America is still too weak. That fun will begin in a year or two..... Meanwhile enjoy the stock market ride, and just wait until the central bankers (Bernanke and his friends) set interest rates below zero.:p:p:p

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

Sorry Jim, I'm just very time challenged these days. You're right, my "obvious negative indicators" statement was awfully vague. I was simply pointing to the economy which is functioning at a level not seen in 10 years. Add expanding unemployment, real estate losses, massive public debt increases and consumers unwillingness to restart their spending and you have a witches brew of bad economic indicators. It also appears that the ECRI weekly indicator is topping at 124. We'll have to wait to see where we go from here but the markets look ripe for a big down leg.

Good luck with your investing.

Thank you, SF2, for getting back on this.

I don't disagree with the points you make, but they have all been present since before the March lows. I don't follow ECRI and thus can reach no conclusions about it. Despite all the persisting negatives, the market has had a truly remarkable runup, and there are things that make the runup dubious, e.g. the quality of the stocks that have led it and the volumes during the runup. Read any bearish pundit and he'll give those and more reasons; nevertheless, the runup occurred.

Now everyone, so it seems to me, is setting up for a swoon in September, worst month of the year by some statistics. Some are predicting big lows in the SPX.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...0807_itbm.html is a link that tracks its proprietary Buy and Sell signals which have all been on buys with a bit of whipsawing in a handfull a month before the 8/6/09 date on the table above. Since then the only Bearish signal on the table has become Bullish, that being the SPX, which is what the second item in the table "stocks long-term" actually is, it is the SPX. That became Bullish when its 50-day EMA crossed over its 200-day EMA. (all you non-technical types please exist the building to barf). http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSp...90814_ltb.html

Still referencing some decisionpoint.com data I get from subscribing there, there has been some deterioration in the short-term indicators, they react quickly, since 7/31/09; however, the longer, slower reacting indicators mostly (85/90 ETF's that are tracked) remain on buy signals, which is to be expected with the minimal drops from the equity highs from last Wednesday RUT, Thursday SPX, DJI, XVG and Friday NDX, Nasdaq. The most any index is off its closing recovery high is the RUT at -2.05%. I think a 10% correction or even 15% correction could occur in here, sucking in all the bears, and then reversing for a while. But I'll tell you what I know and that is jack-shit.

For about a month, I read some pundit's bullish comments and I'm bullish til I read some bearish pundit's comments, then I bearish, etc.. etc, etc.

I truly have no idea what lies ahead between now and end of October, or any time actually.

[santafe2]

Re: Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

I don't follow ECRI and thus can reach no conclusions about it.

Jim, you can't try to time your US investments and not follow ECRI as an indicator. I've used it for many years, not because I'm such smart guy but because it was the indicator Greenspan used. We have to assume everyone in power is watching this indicator and taking action based on it's direction. If we're topping at 124, it's going to get ugly this fall. Take a few minutes to review the ECRI bottom, it was exactly at the stock market bottom in early March.

Here's your link:
http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/