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Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

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  • Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

    This is getting some play on cable news outlets and in the blogs and what not, so I thought it was worth pointing out.

    I added the word cheap in parentheses to the NYT title because Lynch does get to it eventually.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/op...=2&ref=opinion

    A related argument — that the “easy oil” is gone and that extraction can only become more difficult and cost-ineffective — should be recognized as vague and irrelevant. Drillers in Persia a century ago certainly didn’t consider their work easy, and the mechanized, computerized industry of today is a far sight from 19th-century mule-drawn rigs. Hundreds of fields that produce “easy oil” today were once thought technologically unreachable.

    [..]

    Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down closer to the historical level of $30 a barrel as new supplies come forward in the deep waters off West Africa and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North Dakota. But that may not keep the Chicken Littles from convincing policymakers in Washington and elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in price.
    Michael Lynch, the former director for Asian energy and security at the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is an energy consultant.

    See, we've got all types here in Massachusetts, not just crazy liberals.

  • #2
    Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

    The oil shorts ( those who have shorted oil in the futures market ) always parade-out stories about the so-called demise of Peak Oil Theory just before they have to cover their position in the market and buy oil. This is nothing new.

    "It seems like I've heard this song before, it's from an old familiar score.... I re-call the words and the melody."

    And those bombers in Nigeria no longer will blow-up oil pipelines and oil facilities; they have become peaceful, law-abiding, democratic, and productive. Not only that, but cheap oil is just ready to gush from hard shale in North Dakota and Montana.... Good news for V-8 owners and Hummer owners. :p

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    • #3
      Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

      I checked him out in Sourcewatch.

      http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php...chael_C._Lynch

      They don't show any lobbying stuff. I don't think he's trying to manipulate the market for those short oil. I believe he makes some good points in the piece.

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      • #4
        Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

        Counterarguments:

        http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5711


        Actual data of Oil Production:

        http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1105.html - see the US column. We reached peak in 1970.

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        • #5
          Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

          Lynch managed to somehow not mention the dollar at all, which is pretty interesting.

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          • #6
            Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

            If oil is so easy, why are we importing so much and why did our production peak decades ago?

            A modern alchemist. There's oil everywhere, the data is all wrong, and it's just bad policy that keeps us all from driving hummers a block down the street to the local Kwik-E-Mart. :rolleyes:

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            • #7
              Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

              From that Oil Drum thread: Back in 1996 Lynch predicted flat real oil prices for the next two decades.

              http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/2...-peak-oil-bet/

              so ignoring the value of the dollar isn't new for him.

              His writings serve a purpose though. Why did the NYT publish this piece?

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              • #8
                Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

                I strongly recommend for everyone interested in this subject to look at actual production data before reading anything else. Latest charts.
                http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/upl...ch_Monthly.pdf

                The charts are compiled from data by JODI.
                http://www.jodidata.org/

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                • #9
                  Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

                  Oil consumption data also paints a good picture of the situation in different countries / regions. In the US and a few European countries oil consumption is falling, in most other places it stagnates or grows.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

                    An interesting rebuttal at the Huffington Post:

                    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph..._b_269877.html

                    Michael Lynch, Wrong on Oil Prices for Over a Decade, is Wrong About Peak Oil

                    ...
                    Even back then, in the good old days of $17 oil (1995 average nominal price or $24 in 2008 inflation-adjusted dollars), Lynch was predicting flat oil prices for decades:

                    "In previous work, I have shown that past oil market forecasts were biased towards rising prices and declining non-OPEC production. Correcting for the supply pessimism leaves a forecast in which oil markets remain in surplus over the long-term, suggesting that oil prices will remain weak for the indefinite future....

                    Conclusions: Prices are much more likely to be weak than strong....

                    ... the ongoing technological revolution in the industry, combined with managerial improvements and a more friendly fiscal environment in oil exporting countries, will keep real oil prices flat for the next two decades.

                    ... a flat oil price forecast appears to be much more consistent with historical behavior than the rising price forecasts of DOE and the lEA. A declining price, or flat at a lower level, would hardly be unrealistic."

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                    • #11
                      Re: Michael Lynch (MIT) Op-Ed in the New York Times: ‘Peak (Cheap) Oil’ Is a Waste of Energy

                      Originally posted by we_are_toast View Post
                      If oil is so easy, why are we importing so much and why did our production peak decades ago?

                      A modern alchemist. There's oil everywhere, the data is all wrong, and it's just bad policy that keeps us all from driving hummers a block down the street to the local Kwik-E-Mart. :rolleyes:
                      Lynch cherry-picks facts that are true but irrelevant, and makes a lot of broad, unsubstantiated assertions. It's a weak argument that relies on rhetorical sleight-of-hand for its impact on intellectuals with soft, unquestioning minds-- i.e., the NYT's target audience.

                      He's carrying water for someone, that's for sure. You can't be wrong for 20 years running without being on an agenda-driven payroll of some sort.

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