Bulls should read this "Truth"

[thunderdownunder]

Lather rinse repeat
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a7tX4I7RggVk

I am seriously thinking that there is a Wardrobe full of skeletons to be pulled out of Zombie land.
I wait and wait for the slap of a cold fish to wake up from this nightmare. The baltic dry index should never be taken lightly at this, the time for imports to be rising prior to Christmas inventory build. This article does not paint a recovery picture. Just wait for copper futures decline and then you have a "full" no bull picture
This is unsustainable in any measure shape or form. Read between the lines.
Three cheers for Bernanke - and more of the same drug that got the World "hooked"

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

Lather rinse repeat
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a7tX4I7RggVk

I am seriously thinking that there is a Wardrobe full of skeletons to be pulled out of Zombie land.
I wait and wait for the slap of a cold fish to wake up from this nightmare. The baltic dry index should never be taken lightly at this, the time for imports to be rising prior to Christmas inventory build. This article does not paint a recovery picture. Just wait for copper futures decline and then you have a "full" no bull picture
This is unsustainable in any measure shape or form. Read between the lines.
Three cheers for Bernanke - and more of the same drug that got the World "hooked"

Here's a good link to the BDI http://www.investmenttools.com/futur..._dry_index.htm

[touchring]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

The Baltic index shows nothing about the economy, it's all speculation on easy credit from Beijing. The Chinese speculators bought too much steel and ore, so they are cutting back.


Steel prices continued to drop and steel enterprises reduced the EXW price

August 24 MetalBiz--On August 23, the construction steel price continued to drop to 3,700 yuan per ton and the HRC price rebounded to 3,650 yuan per ton in the domestic stock market. Compared with the highest level on August 4 in the domestic steel market, the construction steel price reduced 19% and HRC cut 16%

Zhou Xizeng, chief analyst of Citic Securities said that "the dramatic falling in the current market was apparent and the panic minds were widespread, but from the present off-season of steel market, the actual demand was scare, therefore, although the market continuously reduced the price, the deals were also little".

http://news.alibaba.com/article/deta...rop-steel.html

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

The Baltic index shows nothing about the economy, it's all speculation on easy credit from Beijing. The Chinese speculators bought too much steel and ore, so they are cutting back.


Steel prices continued to drop and steel enterprises reduced the EXW price

August 24 MetalBiz--On August 23, the construction steel price continued to drop to 3,700 yuan per ton and the HRC price rebounded to 3,650 yuan per ton in the domestic stock market. Compared with the highest level on August 4 in the domestic steel market, the construction steel price reduced 19% and HRC cut 16%

Zhou Xizeng, chief analyst of Citic Securities said that "the dramatic falling in the current market was apparent and the panic minds were widespread, but from the present off-season of steel market, the actual demand was scare, therefore, although the market continuously reduced the price, the deals were also little".

http://news.alibaba.com/article/deta...rop-steel.html

Unless you wish to expand on your statement to explain why it is correct, I take it to be incorrect just based on the wikipedia explanation of what the BDI is. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

• Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved in various markets (supply and demand).
  
• The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic — it takes two years to build a new ship, and ships are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in the Arizona desert. So marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. in other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..."^[6] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, crude oil, metallic ores, and grains.
  
• Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.^[7]
  
• Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," according to The Baltic, "... it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns."^[2]

[touchring]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

Unless you wish to expand on your statement to explain why it is correct, I take it to be incorrect just based on the wikipedia explanation of what the BDI is. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

What i meant is that for the past 5 months at least, the BDI soars and falls based on how much iron ore and natural resources the Chinese speculators are buying and hoarding.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...347154,00.html

[D-Mack]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"



Is there data from the last century?

[snakela]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

BDI led on the way down, but lagged on the way up since march.

I'm comming to the conclusion we're thinking about this wrong. Fundamentals mean nothing to equities as long as the dollar is being debased. If you are already wealthy, follow EJs advice and get into metals and short treasuries.

If you're trying to figure out how you're going to retire you have to play the game and buy stocks or commodities as long as $USD keeps tanking. All aboard the debasement express.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

I posted because I am now Nervous - Like Mega I know something is not right with the total picture. I can't put my finger on it and I bet quite a few on this site are waiting for a massive rush to the single exit.
These things are the ones that get my hackles up.

Unemployment is still getting worse, and as you would expect at a slower pace but still worse. There can be no recovery in consumption when overtime is off,your forced on holidays or hours are cut. - Graph of average hours worked ?

Baltic dry index is falling back toward lows - Yes it is volatile, but NO ONE books a ship to move bulk cargo without an order from a buyer. It is devoid of speculation. Also Touchring is 28% correct because China use that percentage of the World's Bulk shipping. China would have been crazy not to stockpile its needs when they were in cash and had eager sellers. It worries me it is now falling so future demand looks soft - Very Soft. Thank Jim for link.

Copper- One of the most used and standard ingredient for a manufacturing economy, similar to salt in bread. The price of copper futures are rising but if it stalls and heads down you have a problem. Speculative influence distorts but not as bad as Oil. Graph?

TCU - 60% of all Manufactured goods come back in Containers. It is a good measure of both a manufacturing countries output and demand in the receiving ports. Maersk is a large supplier. I can't find a Measure of container Shipping but if there was one it would be a leading indicator. Help needed?

Failing banks -It is regrettable but when one bank fails it effects all others. there is a domino effect. Taylor Bean & Whitaker is the 12th largest mortgage Lender - Thats 12th Largest folks. Its tie to Colonial Bank Corp was the Domino. But not a ripple? well not yet any way. BBVA a Spanish bank with a less than envious credit rating buys Colonial bank -What NO US banks wanted to touch it - Pleeeese tell me the banking industry is "Well Capitalised". No, the unfortunate thing is they are all tied together and as one sinks it drags down another then another. My belief is the FIDC is busier that a one legged man in an arse kicking competition and will dribble them out on a Friday just a quick as they can find Overseas buyers to tie them up. I for one think its just starting to simmer. Graphs we have of realized failures but how many more are waiting for "processing" ??..............

Housing Bubble - Again its an ongoing bottleneck with Banks reluctant to foreclose on 90+ day delinquencies. Why, three sound reasons. One is they realize the full loss, Two is that owners(pun) are carrying the can for rates, charges and upkeep. The banks don't want the damn things as Villa cost a lota owned by a bank costs the bank. Thirdly its the narrow door principle of a bottleneck at the Courts, they simply are swamped, backed up, blocked solid.
Graphs and figures we have but trust me its like looking at an Iceberg. The true size is hidden from view.

Stockmarket - Casino Royale. Yes its rising everywhere. Take your choice, Bonds that pay less then true inflation or go all in hoping for instant gratification. So much, almost, "Free" money looking for best return, risk adjusted. Fundamentals who needs them. The Cramer theory is "The trend is your Friend. But he never says the last bit "until its not" It is a small exit door folks - better to be outside looking in, than inside wanting to get out and being crushed to a pulp when the fire alarm goes off. Return of capital takes precedence over return on capital. Its a capitalist system - lose your Capital and you will find you can't play, ever, ever again.

Government Incentives - Cash for clunkers- You still brought a depreciating Asset thats going to cost heaps more than "Old Betsy"and you artificially brought forward demand thats going to cost someone bigtime. Ah Yes you brought Depreciation, But its not REAL CASH you lost as you put the key in and drove out the door. $8000 Housing freebies to purchase an Item that rots in the weather and drains your cash with upkeep insurance, taxes, closing costs,Bank fees, removalists costs.........Oh then your a slave for 30 years- Can you see 30 years into the future. They Just don't work, they create a false bubble and they cost the taxpayers.

Exit Strategy - I hear Nothing from Ben(waiting waiting)
Inflation - does a one legged duck swim in circles?
Buffet in Plane leasing, Derivatives, box cars - Is he to big to fail ? well hes a big fellow and he can fail.

What a Matrix of lies, disinformation, seasonally adjusted BS, Monopoly money, bonuses for the Crooks, dubious accounting "principles" and Jobs for the Big boys. I have a 'Bad Feeling" as a careful Bull. I don't want to be lead up the race because I smell a whiff of Blood and keep hearing the faint thump of a carcass as it hits the killing floor.Thats not going to be me.

I could go on but Iv'e vented enough. We hold Dividend paying shares,we have not brought anything since late 2005, the cash we accumulated since is stacked ready for when Elvis has exited the Building. If you trade - day trade and get a goodnight's sleep. If your holding and buying on dips,tighten your stop loss points (Not that that will save you in a rush to exit)

Or Am I the only one who has that nagging feeling in the back of Head that something just is not right with the World. A sixth primeval survival thing perhaps - and I am a careful Bull.

[flintlock]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

You are not the only one who feels something is not right. :eek:

[cjppjc]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

If we thought all was right with the world we would not be here. Except Nero who thinks the world is like 53/54, or 60/61.

[touchring]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

repeat, pls delete.

[touchring]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

If we thought all was right with the world we would not be here. Except Nero who thinks the world is like 53/54, or 60/61.

Nero is actually half right, the Chinese are very desperate, state workers have started seizing and kill their managers (In the West, this will be called murder), there's massive unemployment and no proper social security. Since its a life and death struggle, it's better that the other guy die than for me to starve or die from illness. So it makes sense for employees to collectively kill the managers if they want to lay them off.

The unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang threatens to spread into China proper. If the CCP doesn't act fast, there will be a Tiananmen 2 in no time.

The CCP has to act fast, the quickest way to inflate the economy is by pouring hundreds of billions into the stock and commodity markets.

[cindykimlisa]

Re: Bulls should read this "Truth"

I posted because I am now Nervous - Like Mega I know something is not right with the total picture. I can't put my finger on it and I bet quite a few on this site are waiting for a massive rush to the single exit.
These things are the ones that get my hackles up.

Unemployment is still getting worse, and as you would expect at a slower pace but still worse. There can be no recovery in consumption when overtime is off,your forced on holidays or hours are cut. - Graph of average hours worked ?

Baltic dry index is falling back toward lows - Yes it is volatile, but NO ONE books a ship to move bulk cargo without an order from a buyer. It is devoid of speculation. Also Touchring is 28% correct because China use that percentage of the World's Bulk shipping. China would have been crazy not to stockpile its needs when they were in cash and had eager sellers. It worries me it is now falling so future demand looks soft - Very Soft. Thank Jim for link.

Copper- One of the most used and standard ingredient for a manufacturing economy, similar to salt in bread. The price of copper futures are rising but if it stalls and heads down you have a problem. Speculative influence distorts but not as bad as Oil. Graph?

TCU - 60% of all Manufactured goods come back in Containers. It is a good measure of both a manufacturing countries output and demand in the receiving ports. Maersk is a large supplier. I can't find a Measure of container Shipping but if there was one it would be a leading indicator. Help needed?

Failing banks -It is regrettable but when one bank fails it effects all others. there is a domino effect. Taylor Bean & Whitaker is the 12th largest mortgage Lender - Thats 12th Largest folks. Its tie to Colonial Bank Corp was the Domino. But not a ripple? well not yet any way. BBVA a Spanish bank with a less than envious credit rating buys Colonial bank -What NO US banks wanted to touch it - Pleeeese tell me the banking industry is "Well Capitalised". No, the unfortunate thing is they are all tied together and as one sinks it drags down another then another. My belief is the FIDC is busier that a one legged man in an arse kicking competition and will dribble them out on a Friday just a quick as they can find Overseas buyers to tie them up. I for one think its just starting to simmer. Graphs we have of realized failures but how many more are waiting for "processing" ??..............

Housing Bubble - Again its an ongoing bottleneck with Banks reluctant to foreclose on 90+ day delinquencies. Why, three sound reasons. One is they realize the full loss, Two is that owners(pun) are carrying the can for rates, charges and upkeep. The banks don't want the damn things as Villa cost a lota owned by a bank costs the bank. Thirdly its the narrow door principle of a bottleneck at the Courts, they simply are swamped, backed up, blocked solid.
Graphs and figures we have but trust me its like looking at an Iceberg. The true size is hidden from view.

Stockmarket - Casino Royale. Yes its rising everywhere. Take your choice, Bonds that pay less then true inflation or go all in hoping for instant gratification. So much, almost, "Free" money looking for best return, risk adjusted. Fundamentals who needs them. The Cramer theory is "The trend is your Friend. But he never says the last bit "until its not" It is a small exit door folks - better to be outside looking in, than inside wanting to get out and being crushed to a pulp when the fire alarm goes off. Return of capital takes precedence over return on capital. Its a capitalist system - lose your Capital and you will find you can't play, ever, ever again.

Government Incentives - Cash for clunkers- You still brought a depreciating Asset thats going to cost heaps more than "Old Betsy"and you artificially brought forward demand thats going to cost someone bigtime. Ah Yes you brought Depreciation, But its not REAL CASH you lost as you put the key in and drove out the door. $8000 Housing freebies to purchase an Item that rots in the weather and drains your cash with upkeep insurance, taxes, closing costs,Bank fees, removalists costs.........Oh then your a slave for 30 years- Can you see 30 years into the future. They Just don't work, they create a false bubble and they cost the taxpayers.

Exit Strategy - I hear Nothing from Ben(waiting waiting)
Inflation - does a one legged duck swim in circles?
Buffet in Plane leasing, Derivatives, box cars - Is he to big to fail ? well hes a big fellow and he can fail.

What a Matrix of lies, disinformation, seasonally adjusted BS, Monopoly money, bonuses for the Crooks, dubious accounting "principles" and Jobs for the Big boys. I have a 'Bad Feeling" as a careful Bull. I don't want to be lead up the race because I smell a whiff of Blood and keep hearing the faint thump of a carcass as it hits the killing floor.Thats not going to be me.

I could go on but Iv'e vented enough. We hold Dividend paying shares,we have not brought anything since late 2005, the cash we accumulated since is stacked ready for when Elvis has exited the Building. If you trade - day trade and get a goodnight's sleep. If your holding and buying on dips,tighten your stop loss points (Not that that will save you in a rush to exit)

Or Am I the only one who has that nagging feeling in the back of Head that something just is not right with the World. A sixth primeval survival thing perhaps - and I am a careful Bull.

Thank You Thunder

Yours in one of the truly superb comments I have read here. I think you are right on target.

I am not a bear or a bull as I have been out of the "stock market" for 35 years. I have pretty much been on the Ej strategy for about 25 years longer than Ej, except I own silver and not gold.

What I know is the stock market (DOW) has been rigged to favor Brokers and Investment Banks and uberRich people for at least 50 years and maybe 80 years. Their facts are not facts.

Cash is King

Cindy