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stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

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  • stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

    and learns if from jim willy... who learned it from itulip... but whatever.




    The only place foreigners are "still buying" is in the Treasury market, and one wonders: for how much longer, and how much of that is really foreign buying?
    Not that it matters. This debt is being rejected because foreigners have no faith in the future of its value. It is not just the risk of default any more - it is also the risk of currency translation going "the wrong way" to an extreme degree, potentially destroying the buyer's purchasing power even if a formal default does not occur.
    This is the wall that I have written about for more than two years [mm... liar... you said the fed was never, never, never going to use qe, print money. what a liar... worse than jim cramer], and the risk of Bernanke's so-called "smarts" when it comes to "quantitative easing", otherwise known as "monetization" (which Bernanke said, under oath, he wouldn't do - but both was and is.) [mm... no shit, sherlock... he's a liar, just like you]

    Here's the issue, in a nutshell: Bernanke surmises that he wants long-term (and short-term) interest rates low to "spur borrowing" and thus attempt to kick the economy back into growth. This in turn "mandates" an extraordinarily loose monetary policy.
    The math says this is idiotic: We are in this mess because of too loose a monetary policy for too long, which in turn engendered too much debt in the system for the economy's productive output. The economy got drunk on too much credit; you can't fix it with a bottle of whiskey.
    In turn the market believes this policy is dangerous on two accounts: The debt itself needs to yield more as a consequence of actual default risk and the dollar has a risk of rapid, disorderly decline due to money printing which is exactly the same from a foreigner's point of view of purchasing power as a default.

    [mm... ding, ding, ding. after all of the heated arguments ej's had with karl on his site where karl calls ej stupid, now he comes out and makes the exact same argument! what a moron!]

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ead-Ahead.html
    woo hoo! only took him 10 yrs to catch on!

  • #2
    Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

    Originally posted by metalman View Post
    and learns if from jim willy... who learned it from itulip... but whatever.





    woo hoo! only took him 10 yrs to catch on!
    At least HE LEARNS! (Unlike Uncle Ben)

    Anyway, must dash, Off to buy a house before poom hits.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

      Why are they so certain about the date?


      It is my understanding that the BRIC countries, not China alone, have given the US until early November to deliver.

      As a result of the above I see 81 days left for the US dollar.

      http://jsmineset.com/2009/08/19/the-...of-the-dollar/

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

        Originally posted by metalman View Post
        and learns if from jim willy... who learned it from itulip... but whatever. [...] woo hoo! only took him 10 yrs to catch on!
        He underestimates the level of gov't control over this situation:'The fallacy Bernanke (and other policy-makers, including Congressfolk) have is that "they're in control." In fact the market is in control; you can offer all the bonds you want, but you can't force anyone to buy them.'

        http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ead-Ahead.html

        A lot of people make similar statements, but they will be proven wrong.

        With the same success you could predict back in early 1900s that inflation and $ devaluation are not possible, because $ is tied to gold. Little did they know about what was coming - first, the FED and then gold confiscation/$ devaluation.

        The next step down on this ladder is increasing gov't control of the debt market. From the gov't POV, the debt market is getting irrational (does not buy their stuff). So, they will just force it on the market. The simplest way is to stuff pension funds with gov't IOUs. If this is possible with Soc Sec, why not private pension funds? By then the situation will be dire enough to make such measures popular ("Soak the rich!", i.e. folks with some retirement savings). I think, it will not happen before gold confiscation, though.

        This infusion of value into the $ will generate a major squeeze for the $ bears (the second big squeeze, gold confiscation being the first).
        медведь

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

          Originally posted by D-Mack View Post
          Why are they so certain about the date?
          As a result of the above I see 81 days left for the US dollar.
          Probably someone overspecifying "about three months" so as to make a hunch sound more like exact knowledge.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

            Originally posted by medved View Post
            He underestimates the level of gov't control over this situation:
            Agreed. The fundamental value of money (even of metal coins) comes from the power of the government behind the money. There is much power left in the American empire.
            Originally posted by medved View Post
            This infusion of value into the $ will generate a major squeeze for the $ bears (the second big squeeze, gold confiscation being the first).
            I've been expecting the next dollar boost to come from another stock market crash, precipitated by the failure of another "too big to fail" financial institution or two, or perhaps the bankruptcy of a second level nation, or some combination.

            I'll be surprised if a gold confiscation comes soon.
            Most folks are good; a few aren't.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

              Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
              I've been expecting the next dollar boost to come from another stock market crash, precipitated by the failure of another "too big to fail" financial institution or two, or perhaps the bankruptcy of a second level nation, or some combination.
              How about Chinese market crash? That would be some serious dollar boost. I think, this will be the first one.
              медведь

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                Originally posted by medved View Post
                How about Chinese market crash? That would be some serious dollar boost. I think, this will be the first one.
                Yes, it could be China. Certainly the Anglo-American Bankster empire would gladly take China down a couple of notches. It would not be the first time; it is an old rivalry. The Chinese export driven power is down to a stack of T-Bills, now that their customers have sharply reduced purchases.
                Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                  Maybe Warren Buffet knows a little about ka-poom theory too.

                  "Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts." NYTimes oped

                  He's not only a stock picker. And he's not that lousy at macroecon all the time.

                  Why dignify denniger with recognition?

                  Guess what Warren's opinion is of gold...

                  It actually is useful, and his way includes serious debasement, tremendous markup and no 28% collectible capital gains tax.

                  Bread, circuses... and trinkets.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                    Originally posted by 0tr View Post

                    Why dignify denniger with recognition?
                    i agree with 80% of crackhead karl's ideas... the other 20% kill me.

                    Guess what Warren's opinion is of gold...
                    "I've never seen the wisdom in paying huge amounts of money for a metal that you pay to dig out of the ground then turn around and dig another hole in the ground to store it. And you have to keep paying people to guard it."

                    but that was before... the fed doped its balance sheet & congress ruined the usa's.

                    now buffet's singing a new tune...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                      denninger gets about twice the traffic that itulip does [check alexa] and almost as much as barry ritholtz. it's a sad commentary: gresham's law?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                        Originally posted by jk View Post
                        denninger gets about twice the traffic that itulip does [check alexa] and almost as much as barry ritholtz. it's a sad commentary: gresham's law?
                        different biz model. a trading related site... visitors gotta go there all day long. now what do i do? sell what? buy what? what's the self proclaimed genius have to say?

                        a macro site... visit once every 10 years if it's any good

                        survivalists do better than itulip for traffic...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                          Originally posted by metalman View Post
                          i agree with 80% of crackhead karl's ideas... the other 20% kill me.



                          "I've never seen the wisdom in paying huge amounts of money for a metal that you pay to dig out of the ground then turn around and dig another hole in the ground to store it. And you have to keep paying people to guard it."

                          but that was before... the fed doped its balance sheet & congress ruined the usa's.

                          now buffet's singing a new tune...


                          "how are governments going to pay for the cost of these extrodinary efforts."

                          Well let's see.

                          Print
                          Borrow

                          Rinse
                          Recycle

                          What? You mean that you want us to pay back the debt and not be able to borrrow against the existing debt?

                          Now why on earth would we want to do something like that?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                            this just in from Mr. Norris at the NYT ( our paper of record - ughh)

                            http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/22/bu...1&ref=business

                            interesting headline, quick read - but note that the question in the headline isn't explicitly answered.

                            What do you think they are trying to tell us?



                            sort of like that Harry Potter character - the one that no one wants to mention his name

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: stop the presses! karl denniger discovers ka-poom theory!

                              Originally posted by medved View Post
                              This infusion of value into the $ will generate a major squeeze for the $ bears (the second big squeeze, gold confiscation being the first).
                              Could you elaborate a bit on your comment about gold confiscation?

                              What would the gov't gain by this action?
                              How would they do it?
                              Would there be any warning?
                              raja
                              Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

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