'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

[sunskyfan]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

How much of that net export bounce is due to a reduction of oil imports?

I looked at http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ which presents these statistics on oil imports and other things .... the red line is pretty much perfect inverse of oil imports





Hum.

[GRG55]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

How much of that net export bounce is due to a reduction of oil imports?

I looked at http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ which presents these statistics on oil imports and other things .... the red line is pretty much perfect inverse of oil imports





Hum.

You are comparing crude oil volume with capital flows. The data is in the Energy Information Administration site to roughly calculate the US crude oil and petroleum products import cost for each month [I say roughly because the import data for petroleum products isn't detailed enough to reconcile each individual product].

The US import bill is today plenty hefty by any historical comparison except the brief spike in the middle of last year. Calculate the numbers yourself if you disbelieve me...

[sunskyfan]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

I looked at it twice. That is total oil products imported in thousands of barrels. Also, if you look at comparing months of May (most recent data) there has been a 10% drop from last year and a 19% drop since 07.

[we_are_toast]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

It almost seems like there needs to be Pa added in between the Ka and the Poom part. A period of stagflation where food and energy costs go up but housing and discretionary spending go down.

I've noticed there hasn't been a lot of talk from FRED and EJ about Poom ( a big inflationary event). I think you're right that it seems like something is happening in between Ka and Poom. Ka_?_Poom? Maybe it's something like disdeflation, not an inflation upward spiral but not a stagflation like the 70's. It certainly seems like it will be a more difficult investment period than a straight Poom.

[cjppjc]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

I've noticed there hasn't been a lot of talk from FRED and EJ about Poom ( a big inflationary event). I think you're right that it seems like something is happening in between Ka and Poom. Ka_?_Poom? Maybe it's something like disdeflation, not an inflation upward spiral but not a stagflation like the 70's. It certainly seems like it will be a more difficult investment period than a straight Poom.

Wikipedia might delete it soon. Too bad.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biflation


Biflation is a state of the economy where the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously. ^[1] The term was first introduced by Dr. F. Osborne Brown, a Senior Financial Analyst for the Phoenix Investment Group. ^[2] During Biflation, there's a rise in the price of commodity/earnings-based assets (inflation) and a simultaneous fall in the price of debt-based assets (deflation).
The price of all assets are based on the demand for them versus the volume of money in circulation to buy them.
With Biflation on the one hand, the economy is fueled by an over-abundance of money injected into the economy by central banks. Since most essential commodity-based assets (food, energy, clothing, precious metals) remain in high demand, the price for them rises due to the increased volume of money chasing them. The increasing costs to purchase these essential assets is the price-inflationary arm of Biflation. ^[3]
With Biflation on the other hand, the economy is tempered by increasing unemployment and decreasing purchasing power. As a result, a greater amount of money is directed toward buying essential items and directed away from buying non-essential items. Debt-based assets (mega-houses, high-end automobiles, stocks and bonds) become less essential and increasingly fall into lower demand. As a result, the prices for them fall due to the decreased

[Kadriana]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

Wikipedia might delete it soon. Too bad.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biflation


Biflation is a state of the economy where the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously. ^[1] The term was first introduced by Dr. F. Osborne Brown, a Senior Financial Analyst for the Phoenix Investment Group. ^[2] During Biflation, there's a rise in the price of commodity/earnings-based assets (inflation) and a simultaneous fall in the price of debt-based assets (deflation).
The price of all assets are based on the demand for them versus the volume of money in circulation to buy them.
With Biflation on the one hand, the economy is fueled by an over-abundance of money injected into the economy by central banks. Since most essential commodity-based assets (food, energy, clothing, precious metals) remain in high demand, the price for them rises due to the increased volume of money chasing them. The increasing costs to purchase these essential assets is the price-inflationary arm of Biflation. ^[3]
With Biflation on the other hand, the economy is tempered by increasing unemployment and decreasing purchasing power. As a result, a greater amount of money is directed toward buying essential items and directed away from buying non-essential items. Debt-based assets (mega-houses, high-end automobiles, stocks and bonds) become less essential and increasingly fall into lower demand. As a result, the prices for them fall due to the decreased

Biflation should eventually turn into inflation, right? When inventories get so low, that demand is greater than supply and all the money people have been holding on to flood the market place. I thought that's when the Poom part started or is Poom with the biflation?

[jk]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

Wikipedia might delete it soon. Too bad.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biflation


Biflation is a state of the economy where the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously. ^[1] The term was first introduced by Dr. F. Osborne Brown, a Senior Financial Analyst for the Phoenix Investment Group. ^[2] During Biflation, there's a rise in the price of commodity/earnings-based assets (inflation) and a simultaneous fall in the price of debt-based assets (deflation).
The price of all assets are based on the demand for them versus the volume of money in circulation to buy them.
With Biflation on the one hand, the economy is fueled by an over-abundance of money injected into the economy by central banks. Since most essential commodity-based assets (food, energy, clothing, precious metals) remain in high demand, the price for them rises due to the increased volume of money chasing them. The increasing costs to purchase these essential assets is the price-inflationary arm of Biflation. ^[3]
With Biflation on the other hand, the economy is tempered by increasing unemployment and decreasing purchasing power. As a result, a greater amount of money is directed toward buying essential items and directed away from buying non-essential items. Debt-based assets (mega-houses, high-end automobiles, stocks and bonds) become less essential and increasingly fall into lower demand. As a result, the prices for them fall due to the decreased

we've been around this block before. see search below [there are about 25 hits on "biflation"]. let's not repeat the same discussion
http://www.google.com/search?q=site:...ie=UTF-8&hl=en

[metalman]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

we've been around this block before. see search below [there are about 25 hits on "biflation"]. let's not repeat the same discussion
http://www.google.com/search?q=site:...ie=UTF-8&hl=en

thx, jk. beat me to it.

[Kadriana]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

So no stagflation, disinflation, deflation or biflation. Straight on to inflation at this point then? Well, fall of this year to spring of next at least.

[jk]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

thx, jk. beat me to it.

by a minute! [note post times]

[cjppjc]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

we've been around this block before. see search below [there are about 25 hits on "biflation"]. let's not repeat the same discussion
http://www.google.com/search?q=site:...ie=UTF-8&hl=en

By all means, we should just stick to the inflation/deflation arguement. There is no way they could occur simultaneously.:rolleyes:

[doom&gloom]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

as one of those who worked my butt off and saved and made it to several times that 95% figure and then quit, my greatest concern is hanging onto what I saved. i imagine i am not alone nowadays...

[GRG55]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

I looked at it twice. That is total oil products imported in thousands of barrels. Also, if you look at comparing months of May (most recent data) there has been a 10% drop from last year and a 19% drop since 07.

Import volumes for crude and products are back to where they were a decade ago. Prices are not.

[jk]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

By all means, we should just stick to the inflation/deflation arguement. There is no way they could occur simultaneously.:rolleyes:

got something new to say about "biflation"? fine. to me it looked like someone introducing this so-called concept as if it were an exciting new item to be analyzed. perhaps it was new to that person. so i suggested first reviewing what had already been written about it on this site, before going forward. is that a problem?

believe me, i am even more tired of the inflation/deflation discussion. it has been discussed in dozens, probably hundreds, of threads and certainly thousands of posts on this site, and heaven knows to even greater lengths adding in all the other places on the internet.

if someone has something new to say, great, by all means say it.

[GRG55]

Re: 'The consumer isn't overleveraged -- the middle class is'- merrill lynch

I've noticed there hasn't been a lot of talk from FRED and EJ about Poom ( a big inflationary event)...

This seems part of the apparent confusion. If one reads carefully it's pretty clear that EJ does not consider inflation to be "an event"...it's a process. He's said that in so many words. Everyone should relax. Your cost of living will be increasing plenty fast enough, plenty soon enough...