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  • Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

    Aug 18, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST
    Walk appeal

    Homes in walkable neighborhoods sell for more: study

    By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch

    CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Homes located within walking distance of amenities such as schools, parks and shopping aren't only more convenient for their owners, often they're also worth more than homes in neighborhoods where driving is the rule, according to a new study released Tuesday.

    The report looked at 94,000 real-estate transactions in 15 markets. In 13 of those markets, higher levels of "walkability" were directly linked to higher home values.

    The report, "Walking the Walk: How Walkability Raises Housing Values in U.S. Cities," was commissioned by CEOs for Cities, a national network of urban leaders from the civic, business, academic and philanthropic sectors.

    It's an important point for home-buyers who are trying to identify which homes will hold their value, said Joseph Cortright, the report's author and a senior policy adviser to CEOs for Cities. Cortright is an economist and president of Impresa, a Portland, Ore.-based consulting firm.

    Walkable places have some of the best chances of performing well in years ahead, he said.

    The analysis used transaction information from ZipRealty. It calculated walkability of the homes using the Walk Score algorithm, which grades addresses based on amenities that are nearby, from restaurants and coffee shops to parks and libraries. Scores range from 0 to 100, with 100 being the most walkable; a score higher than 70 indicates it's possible to get around in the area without using a car.

    Controlling for other factors including a home's size, the number of bathrooms and bedrooms, age, neighborhood income levels, distance from the Central Business District and access to jobs, the study found that a one-point increase in Walk Score is linked to an increase in home value between $500 and $3,000, depending on the market, according to the study.

    The premium for homes in neighborhoods with above-average Walk Scores ranged from $4,000 to $34,000, according to the report.

    Exceptions to the rule

    But that premium wasn't found everywhere. In Las Vegas, walkability correlated with lower housing values. Bakersfield, Calif., showed no statistically significant connection between walkability and home prices, according to the study. The report didn't investigate why homes in walkable neighborhoods didn't bring a premium in those two places.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hom...ore-2009-08-18


    (Site Bonus: Video tour of Bill Gross's new California digs. Whoppee!)


    June 26, 2009 - Kellogg School of Management

    When Homeowners Walk Away: New Research Reveals More Than 25 Percent of Mortgage Loan Defaults Are Strategic

    Financial Trust Index Researchers Study Economic and Moral Factors In Strategic Default

    While the Obama administration's housing policy has been largely influenced by a study of the Boston housing market during the 1990-91 recession in which homes devalued by approximately 10 percent, new research suggests that a novel phenomenon is at hand in the fallout of today's more severe housing crisis - strategic default on mortgage loans. Given that homes in numerous parts of the country have lost more than 30 to 40 percent of their value, many homeowners say they would simply walk away from their loans - without fear of repercussion.

    A new paper, entitled 'Moral and Social Restraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages,' looks at American homeowners' propensity to default when the value of a mortgage exceeds the value of their house, even if they can afford to pay their mortgage. By using new survey data, the paper estimates that more than a quarter of defaults on mortgage loans are strategic, especially when home values have fallen by more than 15 percent.

    The new research was led by Paola Sapienza (Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University) and Luigi Zingales (University of Chicago Booth School of Business) - co-authors of the quarterly Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index - as well as Luigi Guiso (European University Institute). With data collected from surveys conducted within the last six months as part of the Financial Trust Index, this paper is the first to examine the economic and moral implications of strategic default in the current recession.

    Negative Equity

    The study of the Massachusetts housing market during the 1990-91 recession found that very few people who could afford their mortgage chose to walk away from their homes. Consistent with the earlier paper, this new research shows that homeowners refrain from defaulting as long as negative equity does not exceed 10 percent of the value of the home.

    After that level, however, the researchers found that homeowners start to default at an increasing pace, and walk away massively after decreases of 15 percent and more. In fact, 17 percent of households would default, even if they can afford to pay their mortgage, when the equity shortfall reaches 50 percent of the value of the house.

    'Housing policy under the current administration has focused on reducing households' cash flow problems in response to the housing crisis, but no one has addressed the negative equity issue as part of public policy regarding housing,' said Sapienza 'We're in a completely different economic environment today, where for the first time since the Great Depression millions of Americans have mortgage loans that exceed the value of their home.'

    Moral and Social Factors in Strategic Default

    According to the researchers, moral and social variables play a significant role in predicting strategic default. People surveyed who said it was immoral to default were 77 percent less likely to declare their intention to do so, while people who know someone who defaulted were 82 percent more likely to say they would default themselves.

    'The most important barriers to strategic default seem to be both moral and social,' said Zingales. 'Our research showed there is a 'multiplication effect,' where the social pressure not to default is weakened when homeowners live in areas of high frequency of foreclosures or know others who defaulted strategically. In fact, the predisposition to default increases with the number of foreclosures in the same ZIP code.'


    'As defaults become more common, the social stigma attached with defaulting will likely be reduced, especially if there continues to be few repercussions for people who walk away from their loans,' concluded Sapienza. 'This has an adverse effect on homeowners who do pay their mortgages, and the after-effects of more defaults and more price collapse could be economic catastrophe.'


    http://www.mortgagemediamag.com/news...0010761070.htm


  • #2
    Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

    I hope that holds true in my area. They just opened a new elementary and a new Middle school at the entrance to my neighborhood. My kids walk to school now.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

      'As defaults become more common, the social stigma attached with defaulting will likely be reduced, especially if there continues to be few repercussions for people who walk away from their loans,' concluded Sapienza. 'This has an adverse effect on homeowners who do pay their mortgages, and the after-effects of more defaults and more price collapse could be economic catastrophe.'




      In a world where people compare their "moral decisions" against what they percieve as other peoples "moral decisions" very little good results. It would be better if instead people looked into themselves, for themselves.

      I had a conversation with a friend this w/e about personal morality. I asked him if he thought most people have that moment at night, when without trying to think about it, you "know" who you are. And in that brief moment you feel shame. Most people I believe have that moment. That moment needs to be encouraged.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

        Do a Ctrl-F on the initial post for "moral" and see how many times it is used. Why is morality an issue from the homeowner's perspective, when it is not with the lenders, the Fed, the Treasury, the Congress and big banks, not really necessary to separate the last two, but I did for clarity.
        Last edited by Jim Nickerson; August 18, 2009, 06:40 PM.
        Jim 69 y/o

        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

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        • #5
          Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

          Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
          Do a Ctrl-F on the initial post for "moral" and see how many times it is used. Why is morality an issue from the homeowners perspective, when it is not with the lenders, the Fed, the Treasury, the Congress and big banks, not really necessary to separate the last two, but I for clarity.
          Don't Do As I Do, Do What Is Profitable For Me

          The Golden Rule in Real Estate, Auto Sales, the Mafia.... ;)

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

            Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
            Do a Ctrl-F on the initial post for "moral" and see how many times it is used. Why is morality an issue from the homeowner's perspective, when it is not with the lenders, the Fed, the Treasury, the Congress and big banks, not really necessary to separate the last two, but I did for clarity.
            I wrote:

            In a world where people compare their "moral decisions" against what they percieve as other peoples "moral decisions" very little good results. It would be better if instead people looked into themselves, for themselves.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

              I'm going to aviod the discussion about morality and just describe what I saw in Houston in the 2nd half of the 1980's.

              I aboslutely agree with the thesis of the second article, since that was my experience. I kept very close track of the foreclosures and their circumstances in my neighborhood, since I wanted to move/ sell, and kept gauging my options, which were VERY bad, for a LONG time.

              After the oil bust, the foreclosures in my new suburb 18 miles from downtown Houston, started in 1984-1985. The reasons were financial - people had lost their jobs and couldn't pay their mortgages. By 1988, a house that sold for $70,00 in 1981 was now selling for $45,000. So, in the period, 1986-1989, many of the foreclosures were strategic. People who had bought at $70 k couldn't compete with the current foreclosure prices and so they just walked away.

              In many cases there were no long term repurcussions, since most mortgages in those days were done by local savings and loans and banks, majority of whom failed, so their paperwork handling was a mess. Also it was the days before computerized everything.

              Today everything is computized. But I think the analogy would be that the mortgage documentation done between 2004-2007 was often of VERY poor quality and it is often not clear who the "real" owner of the mortgage is, since they have been sliced and diced so many ways via mortgage securities. So the paperwork again is a mess.

              The mortgage securities mess means that many strategic "walk away-ers" will likely get away with it and not suffer serious longer-term consequences.

              In Houston, I also knew many people who did not walk away from under water mortgages, including myself, and if they wanted to move on, they rented out their under water condo or house well into the mid to late 1990's, when they could finally sell on a nominal break-even basis.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

                Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
                Do a Ctrl-F on the initial post for "moral" and see how many times it is used. Why is morality an issue from the homeowner's perspective, when it is not with the lenders, the Fed, the Treasury, the Congress and big banks, not really necessary to separate the last two, but I did for clarity.
                That's the point.

                People Feel that they have been screwed, so they are just doing the same to the bank.

                In fact, if this were to go broader and we start seeing the same thing in REVOLVING CONSUMER DEBT, we could see a debt jubilee through an emergent process.

                People just choose to "walk-away" from their consumer debts. Now that would be really funny IMHO, given the effort by the CC industry to write an Iron-Clad Bankrupcy law that makes people debt slaves.

                If it's true that "you make your own prison" people seem to be getting wise that If there are no penalties for leaving that prision, WHY STAY.

                Watch this trend, it could be the start of something huge. If people walk away from debts and we get a SPONTANEOUS debt repudiation, wow, FIRE dies (and the Fed has to monitize all consumer debt outstanding).

                If the debt dies, we get poom, no kidding.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

                  Originally posted by don View Post
                  Homes in walkable neighborhoods sell for more: study
                  ...
                  FYI... you can find out the walk score of an address here:

                  http://www.walkscore.com/

                  I had a post about it a couple years ago. My current (rented) residence scores an 86.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

                    Originally posted by zoog View Post
                    FYI... you can find out the walk score of an address here:

                    http://www.walkscore.com/

                    I had a post about it a couple years ago. My current (rented) residence scores an 86.
                    Problematic, however. On my address, Baskin & Robbins is listed as a nearby restaurant. B&R is within walking distance. Is it a restaurant? Perhaps walkscore has seen the near-future dinner and it's an ice cream cone ;)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

                      Originally posted by don View Post
                      Problematic, however. On my address, Baskin & Robbins is listed as a nearby restaurant. B&R is within walking distance. Is it a restaurant? Perhaps walkscore has seen the near-future dinner and it's an ice cream cone ;)
                      Yeah as with other computer algorithms... zillow comes to mind... there are problems when there's not enough specific detail in the dataset.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

                        98 for my rented residence.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Walk-Abouts & Walk-Aways

                          97 for my apartment in Brooklyn.

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