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Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

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  • Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

    So this is what happens when sugar cane is used to make auto fuel.

    Is anybody surprised?
    Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch, Coleman Says

    Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar may climb 80 percent to as high as 40 cents a pound on global supply shortages, said Singapore-based commodity hedge fund manager Michael Coleman.
    “Sugar is caught in a perfect storm,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. There is “a big hole” in world supply and no obvious solution in the next six to nine months...

    ...The sweetener has surged 88 percent this year, reaching a 28-year high, as India, the biggest consumer, had its driest June in 83 years and parts of Brazil, the largest grower, were drenched by rainfall four times more than normal, too wet to harvest. World demand will exceed output by as much as 5 million metric tons in the year ending September 2010, according to the International Sugar Organization...

    ...“The world has to depend on Brazil,” Coleman said. There was a question over how much of the country’s cane crop can actually be turned into sugar, he said, as millers have invested heavily in ethanol and “somewhat neglected” the capacity for making sugar.

    “Brazil seems to be fairly maxed out in the short to medium term” with “about 43 percent of its capacity able to be delivered to the market as sugar”...

  • #2
    Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

    it's what happens when you use sugar to make auto fuel, and also "as India, the biggest consumer, had its driest June in 83 years and parts of Brazil, the largest grower, were drenched by rainfall four times more than normal, too wet to harvest." i.e. we have unusual and less productive weather patterns. next question, to which i have no answer, is whether the weather patterns are shifting on a climatological basis, and are becoming less conducive to our normal, long established agricultural practices. i.e. is global warming going to combine with peak cheap oil to produce even "peakier" [if i may coin a term] agricultural production.

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    • #3
      Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

      Originally posted by jk View Post
      it's what happens when you use sugar to make auto fuel, and also "as India, the biggest consumer, had its driest June in 83 years and parts of Brazil, the largest grower, were drenched by rainfall four times more than normal, too wet to harvest." i.e. we have unusual and less productive weather patterns. next question, to which i have no answer, is whether the weather patterns are shifting on a climatological basis, and are becoming less conducive to our normal, long established agricultural practices. i.e. is global warming going to combine with peak cheap oil to produce even "peakier" [if i may coin a term] agricultural production.
      I think it's time for me to bury my skepticisim and join the anti-global warming crusade. When the potential availability and abundance of Hershey chocolate bars is threatened, I'd say the time for complacency is over. :rolleyes:

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

        Originally posted by jk View Post
        is whether the weather patterns are shifting on a climatological basis, and are becoming less conducive to our normal, long established agricultural practices. i.e. is global warming going to combine with peak cheap oil to produce even "peakier" [if i may coin a term] agricultural production.
        THERE'S A happy thought. I would hazard a guess of "All indications lead me to believe so, but I reserve the right to change my opinion in light of further evidence"

        How's that for definative!

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        • #5
          Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

          Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
          So this is what happens when sugar cane is used to make auto fuel.

          Is anybody surprised?
          The sugar industry being one the most protected in the US, at the cost of having sugar cost 2 to 3 time as much as the world total, plus jobs lost in sugar using industries that have left the US, it would not surprise me if there where sugar growth quotas in the US, that do not allow for more sugar to be grown, I am sure these exist in other countries as well... maybe its time to lift those restrictions...

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          • #6
            Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

            Wait a second GRG55, are you saying that sugar cannot be simultaneously used as fuel and food? Well I guess it's a good thing the US hasn't turned any of its major crops into fuel then. :rolleyes:

            Originally posted by jk View Post
            it's what happens when you use sugar to make auto fuel, and also "as India, the biggest consumer, had its driest June in 83 years and parts of Brazil, the largest grower, were drenched by rainfall four times more than normal, too wet to harvest." i.e. we have unusual and less productive weather patterns. next question, to which i have no answer, is whether the weather patterns are shifting on a climatological basis, and are becoming less conducive to our normal, long established agricultural practices. i.e. is global warming going to combine with peak cheap oil to produce even "peakier" [if i may coin a term] agricultural production.
            Pardon me if I see a bad season for crop harvesting as a bad season for crop harvesting and do not make the connection that my laptop is making it a bad season for crop harvesting.

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            • #7
              Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

              Maybe I should grow sugar beets along side my Chioggia and Detroit reds?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

                Sugar is one of the few commodities that really love a worldwide recession. Both in 74-75, and in 81 sugar was as sweet as ever. Without the recession, I don't think there would be a bull-run in sugar like it is now. The only non recession run-up I can think of was from 78-80

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                • #9
                  Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

                  Why the run up in a recession Nero?

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                  • #10
                    Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

                    Well, because the demand for sugar increases as people worry, and consume more sweets, it's not exactly like copper. It only occurs when there is a worldwide recession. There is always stories about crops. But you had it both in 74-75, in 81-82, and now again. I don't think it's an accident.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Sugar May Advance 80% on Supply Crunch...

                      Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                      Why the run up in a recession Nero?

                      Why for the Rum. One does not notice the recession until they dry out a bit.

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