Unemployment? What Unemployment!

[necron99]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

Of those unemployed, 33.8% of them have been unemployed now for over 27 weeks — a record amount (was at 29.0% in June and was at 17.5% at the start of this recession)."

The Federal Teeter Totter:
Extend Unemployment Insurance / Trumpet Falling Unemployment Rate
As George Orwell spins merrily away in his grave....

Pardon me if I'm naïve, but do I remember this right? The Fed stops keeping track of you as "unemployed" if you can't find a job within six months. They figure you have "stopped looking for work" (yeah, and stopped eating and paying bills, too).

So all the people in this recession who are unemployed for ~24 weeks, they just drop off of the statistics, right? Meanwhile median duration of unemployment is ~20 weeks, and apparently 1/3 of them are unemployed for 27 weeks. So some fraction close to half the people who are unemployed right now are just dropping off the official statistics, month after month. Do I understand that right? If so, then that is censorship via statistics, big time. I think even Mark Twain would have been taken aback.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

To answer your question.
after 27 weeks of unemployment you are NOT counted. Perhaps they assumed you died. currently 1 in 3 unemployed have set sail in that boat.
also
From the Official BLS release
About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force
in July, 709,000 more than a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals, who were not in the labor force, wanted
and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the
prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See
table A-13.)
Thats about1.6% of workforce

In July, the number of unemployed persons was 14.5 million. The
unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, little changed for the second
consecutive month. (See table A-1.)

But this doesn't add up

From Table A the number of employed people Ist quarter was 141,578,000
2nd quarter 140,591,000 so 987,000 jobs are lost in three months
therefore 2.1% of the work force was lost in the second quarter.
searching the March U3 unemployment rate it was officially 8.5%
Adding 8.5% and 2.1% = 10.6%
I might be wrong but its using BLS figures. Maybe if you lose a little here and there you can drop unemployment to suit the weather :rolleyes:
Id take a educated guess that Real Unemployment is about 18% of total workforce, even if some of the official employed are working as little a 1 hour per week making ends meet

Question? Do they publish any figures that show how many poor sods are receiving any and all benefits Ie food stamps, extensions ect This might be a good way of tracking the real figures. Following the 'expenditure money trail" never lies
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

To answer your question.
after 27 weeks of unemployment you are NOT counted.

Doesn't this pretty much guarantee that recessions, at least as measured by unemployment, will not longer than six months past the time it takes for unemployment to stop accelerating downward?

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

Yes
But there are things you could do that would decrease unemployment for US citizens that don't rely onBulLshit

You could do this at no cost (except for those who have benefited to date) From a clearheaded point of view it is simple, effective and it would be a great stimulus. People in work pay taxes, spend on consumption and don't need government support and thats what you need. More coming in less going out and people feeling wanted, needed and that have money to spend or save. I can hear it now, the monied end of town saying, "But it will mean we have to pay higher wages and that will impact our profits and create inflation". Yeah - well maybe, just maybe the old system got you there in the first place. They would find higher wages will beget them higher profits as descretionary income rises. Inflation your going to get anyway so put the people to work and stop using your power in congress to line up your own agenda. Time to trickle it down and pay it forward. Extra yacht, house, plane whatever, is it really that rewarding as you watch it rot and depreciate in the sun.

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index...403&Itemid=100

By Carlton Meyer
Apr/06/2009
Measuring unemployment is an art that can result in widely varied rates. Not surprisingly, the U.S. Government uses a method that excludes millions of Americans seeking employment. This lower rate is used to prove that America’s economic system is superior to those in Europe. Their higher unemployment rates are blamed on unions and socialism, which guarantee workers health care and paid vacations. The implication is that while many American workers lack such benefits, at least they have jobs. This argument is faulty since unemployment is measured differently.

In the USA, 35% of healthy Americans ages 16-64 are unemployed, but what does that word mean? Millions of women are unemployed as they choose to stay home to raise families. Nevertheless, 25% of healthy American men ages 16-64 are unemployed, yet the U.S. Government reports an unemployment rate of just 8.1%.[1]
The 25% rate is from an annual federal survey last conducted in June 2008, well before the current economic slump added millions to the “official” unemployment rate of 8.1% for March 6, 2009. The 25% rate is the ratio of healthy American men ages 16-64 not working. This is misleading because it includes the two million Americans behind bars, while most 16 and 17-year olds remain in school. It also includes millions of Americans who voluntarily retire before age 65 and house-husbands who care for children while their wife works.

Nevertheless, an honest man would count anyone who would like to work as unemployed. The U.S. Government compiles data on these uncounted unemployed Americans, but does not mention it in news releases. It can be found in Table A-12 on the Department of Labor’s website where it shows an unemployment rate of 16% for Feb. 2009.[2] It explains why these unemployed Americans are not included in their official unemployment rate:

“Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.”

In typical government doublespeak, it notes they are not “looking for work” but want work and “have looked for work in the recent past.” As a result, these people who want to work are not counted as unemployed. This 16% figure does not include a few million Americans who excluded by the survey parameters for these reasons:

-Students seeking work are never counted as unemployed. So anyone taking college classes at night and seeking a full-time day job is not counted as unemployed.

-Pensioners seeking work are never counted as unemployed. This includes those who receive a minimal monthly pension because they retired early, often forcibly. Soldiers in the U.S. military can retire with a small pension as young as age 37, yet they must find work to support their family. However, they are classified as retired and not counted as unemployed.

-Anyone seeking a full-time job who works a few unpaid hours a week at a family farm or small business is not counted as unemployed.

-People seeking their first job, such as recent high school and college graduates, and housewives are excluded. The logic is that since they were never employed, they are not unemployed.

These games allow the U.S. Government to report a current unemployment rate of just 8.1%, even though its own data of unemployed Americans who want to work indicates an unemployment rate of around 20%. This should concern all Americans because the unemployed burden society by collecting welfare or resorting to crime. A recent surge in Social Security Disability claims indicates another path the desperate unemployed are seeking.

Temp Jobs

The Obama administration is boosting economic activity with a massive spending package that will add two million jobs. Unfortunately, most of these are temporary jobs. President Obama and the U.S. Congress have dismissed the idea of a future stimulus since this year’s trillion dollar spending package has resulted in objections from America’s major creditors.

While America’s trade balance improved as Americans spend less, foreign nations hold trillions of dollars in American notes and bonds. China is the largest creditor, and has openly stated that it would like to reduce its holdings of dollar-based securities. The U.S. Congress has appropriated a trillion dollars in extra spending for 2009, yet most of the money has not been spent so the U.S. Treasury has yet to borrow all the funds.

There were concerns the Treasury would have to offer sharply higher interest rates to attract enough money to cover this year’s planned borrowing. Concerns ended when the U.S. Federal Reserve recently announced that it would buy another $300 billion in U.S. Treasuries.[3] The Fed can create all the money it desires with a few computer keystrokes, which is normally described as “the power of the printing press.” This made foreigners uneasy and dollar fell sharply.

Unemployment is expected to increase this year, despite the benefits of the current economic stimulus. Moreover, these jobs are temporary while the economy is threatened by a continued decline in home prices, a fall in commercial real estate values, and increasing consumer bankruptcies. As a result, the Obama administration must look at other options to increase employment.

American Jobs for American Workers

President Obama can instantly create 65,000 high-paying jobs for Americans each year by eliminating the H1-B visa program. An Internet search turns up hundreds of stories about corporate abuse of this program. It allows them to import skilled workers without proving they are unable to find American workers. Thousands of Americans have been laid off after corporations imported foreign workers, who are paid less and can’t complain about long hours because their work visa is only valid for the corporation that sponsored them. In cases where shortages of skilled American workers exist, like nursing, federal money should be devoted to training Americans.

Over 500,000 jobs would open for U.S. citizens if visa programs for unskilled foreign workers are eliminated. H2 work visas have been issued for decades at the request of major corporations, who claim that a shortage of American labor hampers their operations. There is obviously no labor shortage now, so visas should no longer be issued. Running these programs requires intensive manpower to review and conduct background checks of applicants, and to ensure that employers do not abuse their “indentured servants.”[4] If this burden were eliminated, Department of Labor employees could help American citizens find work with these corporations.

Corporate interests pressured the Bush administration to encourage the flow of illegal cheap labor over the southern border with amnesty efforts and limited enforcement. As the recent stimulus package was debated, some Congressmen expressed concern that up to 300,000 of the estimated two million jobs it would create may go to illegal aliens. However, Democratic leadership in Congress stripped a measure requiring employers who receive stimulus money to use the new federal Internet-based E-Verify program to ensure they hire only legal workers.[5] While this was explained as concern for minorities, it will deny jobs to thousands of poor minorities who are U.S. citizens.

Campaign contributions from corporations to keep cheap labor flowing is the real reason the millionaires occupying seats in Congress favor open borders. While compassion for desperate foreign economic refugees is understandable, every job they fill is a job denied to a poor American citizen. With 25% of American men ages 16-64 not working, it is impossible to argue that workers cannot be found. To evade debate, corporate spinmasters invented a derogatory term for those who believe Americans should be given preference for American jobs -- Nativists. This implies they are anti-immigrant, racist, and ignorant, so rational dialogue is unnecessary.

Given the dismal economic situation in Mexico, President Obama is foolish to encourage more illegal immigration with talks of another amnesty, disguised as “immigration reform.” Requiring employers use the simple E-verify system would open millions of jobs for citizens and encourage illegal immigrants to return home. A study of factories raided by U.S. Immigration enforcement in 2006 found that illegal workers were promptly replaced by higher paid legal workers.[6]

The federal government could create thousands of good jobs for American citizens by pressuring federal agencies and contractors to hire U.S. citizens when possible. The State Department staffs most its embassies with foreign workers. Some of this is necessary because of language requirements, but in most cases it is easier or cheaper to hire locals. Even if Americans must pay relocation expenses, the State Department could fill thousands of positions with Americans. The Department of Defense employs thousands of foreigners at its overseas bases; some 18,000 in South Korea alone. It should review each position with the idea of hiring U.S. citizens for these jobs, even if costs are slightly higher. A better idea is to close hundreds of outdated Cold War military bases overseas and move those jobs and related spending back to the USA.[7]

Tweaking the Workforce

There are systemic methods to reduce unemployment. For example, France cut its workweek to 35 hours, with the idea that employers must hire more people. The results are difficult to measure. Economists and businessmen prefer to measure success based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but that is a measure of economic activity, not quality of life. For example, the U.S. Government could boost GDP, reduce spending, and improve productivity by eliminating the 12 federal holidays, which provide paid days off for half of American workers. The economic benefits are indisputable, yet American workers would object to this “improvement.”

At one time, elderly Americans had their social security payments reduced if they continued working. This saved the system money and discouraged them from working, which opened jobs for younger workers. This was unpopular and eliminated as unfair, but it should be resurrected. A law that would ban social security retirement payments to anyone earning over $2000 a month in wages would save billions of dollars annually. This would be unpopular, but those who continue working in higher-paying jobs past age 65 do not need social security “retirement” checks. Those who object can retire so their job opens for others.


Some 20% of Americans are unemployed and want to work. As this number grows, governments are burdened by greater welfare costs and higher crime rates, while the unemployed pay little in taxes. Moreover, mass unemployment threatens the lives of all Americans with more crime, riots, and possibly a violent revolution. President Obama must demonstrate the leadership to help enact laws unpopular with small groups in order to help the entire nation.



© Copyright 1997-2008. Sanders Research Associates. All rights reserved.

[don]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

To answer your question.
after 27 weeks of unemployment you are NOT counted. Perhaps they assumed you died. currently 1 in 3 unemployed have set sail in that boat.
also
From the Official BLS release
About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force
in July, 709,000 more than a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) These individuals, who were not in the labor force, wanted
and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the
prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See
table A-13.)
Thats about1.6% of workforce

In July, the number of unemployed persons was 14.5 million. The
unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, little changed for the second
consecutive month. (See table A-1.)

But this doesn't add up

From Table A the number of employed people Ist quarter was 141,578,000
2nd quarter 140,591,000 so 987,000 jobs are lost in three months
therefore 2.1% of the work force was lost in the second quarter.
searching the March U3 unemployment rate it was officially 8.5%
Adding 8.5% and 2.1% = 10.6%
I might be wrong but its using BLS figures. Maybe if you lose a little here and there you can drop unemployment to suit the weather :rolleyes:
Id take a educated guess that Real Unemployment is about 18% of total workforce, even if some of the official employed are working as little a 1 hour per week making ends meet

Question? Do they publish any figures that show how many poor sods are receiving any and all benefits Ie food stamps, extensions ect This might be a good way of tracking the real figures. Following the 'expenditure money trail" never lies
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I was under the impression you remained officially unemployed if your unemployment benefits were extended. The 6 month cutoff is the normal 6 months for unemployment benefits. I might be wrong on this but that was my impression. Extending the benefits is politically expedient but maintains the unemployment numbers for those folks extended, thereby also being a political liability.

[ggirod]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

I was laid off in 2006, have been seeking work via Internet ever since, got unemployment til it ran out. How does the government count me? If they count me as unemployed, how do they know I am... If they count me as not unemployed, how do they know that? Most importantly, if there is a way that people can register as being still unemployed, wouldn't that give a bit of truth to the whole mess?

[don]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

Paul Craig Roberts take on the Unemployment definitions and substance.

Last Friday a Bloomberg.com headline read: “U.S. Stocks Gain, Treasuries Drop as Unemployment Rate Declines”.

Let’s have a look at the reported decline in the rate of unemployment. Do you believe that the US auto industry added 28,000 jobs in July amidst GM bankruptcy, sell-off and close-down of GM auto divisions, and demise of GM suppliers? No? Well, that’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
The 28,000 new jobs were created by “seasonal adjustments.” July is a month when jobs are automatically added by the BLS to seasonally smooth the layoffs of auto workers during July’s retooling for the new model year.

This year most of the retooling did not occur, yet the annual seasonal adjustments did. Adjustments are also made for supporting industries, which are partially idled while auto production halts for retooling.

More phantom jobs were created by the “Birth-Death Model.” The payroll jobs data contains guesses about the numbers of new startup company hires and jobs lost from business failures. Failed businesses don’t report the lost jobs (deaths), and new jobs from startups (births) are not captured in the reporting. The government estimates these numbers, but the estimates are based mainly on growth periods, not on recessionary times.

Consequently, during economic downturns, the estimates from the Birth-Death Model overestimate the number of new startup jobs and underestimate the job loss.

The employment outlook was further improved by pushing another cadre of workers, who have been unemployed for too long, off the unemployment rolls. Remember that the long-term discouraged (people out of work for more than one year) are not counted as being in the work force. The length of the current downturn means that short-term discouraged workers, who are counted among the unemployed, are now moving into the long-term discouraged category, which simply erases their existence and lowers the measured rate of unemployment.

All sorts of distortions can find their way into the official statistics. For example, industrial production estimates are based on electricity consumption. Unusually hot weather, which causes a jump in air conditioning use, appears in the statistics as an increase in industrial output. Cool weather spells during summer reduces electricity use and results in a phantom drop in industrial output.

Nominal retail sales figures can increase from an uptick in inflation.
An increase in real GDP can be the result of underestimating inflation.
Other distortions come from the year to year comparisons. As time passes, new comparisons are no longer with previous peaks, but with more recent lows. Thus, reported declines are less severe than previously, which makes things sound better when they aren’t.

By spinning the financial news, the appearance of recovery is created, and this lures people back into the stock and real estate markets where they can lose the remainder of their wealth.

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration.

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts08122009.html

[touchring]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

Every country measures unemployment in a way that makes it low.

In China, unemployed people that are not born in that city are chased out the city. the unlucky ones will get imprisoned, maybe even beaten by the police before they are chased out. Once they out of the city, they are removed from statistics, as no one measures unemployment in villages.

In Singapore, there's no minimum wage so even if you earned $400 a month (the average pay for the lowest blue collar jobs like janitors and gabbage collectors), you are considered employed. $400 buys you 5 big macs a day - http://www.economist.com/markets/ind...ry_id=13055650

In many countries, there is no unemployment insurance, so anyone who becomes unemployed will have to find a job, drive a cab, work in a macdonalds for school vacation job pay, whatever.

[tsetsefly]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

Yes
But there are things you could do that would decrease unemployment for US citizens that don't rely onBulLshit

You could do this at no cost (except for those who have benefited to date) From a clearheaded point of view it is simple, effective and it would be a great stimulus. People in work pay taxes, spend on consumption and don't need government support and thats what you need. More coming in less going out and people feeling wanted, needed and that have money to spend or save. I can hear it now, the monied end of town saying, "But it will mean we have to pay higher wages and that will impact our profits and create inflation". Yeah - well maybe, just maybe the old system got you there in the first place. They would find higher wages will beget them higher profits as descretionary income rises. Inflation your going to get anyway so put the people to work and stop using your power in congress to line up your own agenda. Time to trickle it down and pay it forward. Extra yacht, house, plane whatever, is it really that rewarding as you watch it rot and depreciate in the sun.

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index...403&Itemid=100

By Carlton Meyer
Apr/06/2009
Measuring unemployment is an art that can result in widely varied rates. Not surprisingly, the U.S. Government uses a method that excludes millions of Americans seeking employment. This lower rate is used to prove that America’s economic system is superior to those in Europe. Their higher unemployment rates are blamed on unions and socialism, which guarantee workers health care and paid vacations. The implication is that while many American workers lack such benefits, at least they have jobs. This argument is faulty since unemployment is measured differently.

as the poster above me points out. All countries do stat padding. I would say for most 1st world countries, they must shave off around the same amount %wise...

[0tr]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

Markets are quite over bought right now. I'm guessing an air pocket will arrive.

Looking for S&P500 to get to ~880 in a few weeks.

GS etc know how to goose a market, and then open the trap door.

As soon as I saw that Cohen thing I thought 'it's deja vu all over again'.

[zoog]

Re: Unemployment? What Unemployment!

The meme is being delivered very forcefully now.

Unemployment is down <- todays news!

The recession is over

Home sales are up

Auto dealership inventories are low

The stock market is up

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++

Payrolls fell by 247,000, after a 443,000 loss in June, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=am2AmQwl3XfE

Meanwhile, back in the real world...

A report from the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University entitled The Great Recession of 2007-2009: Its Post-World War II Record Impacts on Rising Unemployment and Underutilization Problems Among U.S. Workers. (Did you get all that?)

link to pdf (I'm one of those people who does not like the embedded widget)

Clearly, the national unemployment rate has not yet peaked given the fact that the recession has not yet come to an end and a period of jobless recovery will likely follow the official end of the recession. ... If the national labor force resumes its projected annual growth rate of .7 to .8 percent, the national unemployment rate by the end of calendar year 2010 could well be in the 11% range unless economic growth rises well beyond most current projections or the Obama Administration and the U.S. Congress undertake a new job creation program.

The current recession in the U.S. has had a wide array of adverse consequences for U.S. workers that extend well beyond the official unemployment statistics. A substantially larger number of U.S. workers have either seen their weekly hours of work reduced well below the minimum BLS threshold of full-time employment (35 or more hours) or been unable to secure full-time jobs when they sought work, accepting part-time jobs to obtain some earnings.

During November 2007, there were 6.917 million unemployed workers, another 4.374 million underemployed workers and 4.337 million members of the labor force reserve [wanting jobs but not actively looking for work], yielding a combined pool of 15.628 million underutilized workers, representing an underutilization rate of just under ten percent.
...
By May 2009, the total number of underutilized workers had increased dramatically from 15.63 million to 29.37 million, a rise of 13.7 million or 88%. Nearly 30 million working-age individuals were underutilized in May 2009 the largest number in our nation’s history. The overall labor underutilization rate in May 2009 had risen to 18.2%, its highest value in the past 26 years.

They break the underutilization data down by gender and race, age group, education level, etc.

Had to throw this part in since according to their data my state is on top.

Nationally, the average monthly underutilization rate between the first four months of 2008 and 2009 increased sharply from 11.1% to 17.5%, a rise of 6.4 percentage points. The rise in underutilization rates across the states varied quite widely.

Probably the most depressing part if your schadenfreude isn't kicking in:

A very high share (75%) of the rise in total unemployment between May 2008 and May 2009 was attributable to permanent job losses rather than to temporary layoffs or new entrants/re-entrants into the labor force. A high fraction of these permanently displaced workers were formerly employed in industries (construction, manufacturing, transportation, finance) and occupations that are now in substantial surplus in U.S. labor markets. Many of these newly jobless workers are structurally unemployed, lacking the education and occupational skills to become re-employed in the absence of new initiatives to retrain them for jobs that are expected to be created as the economy begins to recover.