new piece by Andy Xie on China...

[rabot10]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

here's the acid test... jim rogers turns tail and heads back to the usa.

Won't happen his kids only speak Manderin (sp)

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

you and everyone else...



brilliant. greenspan called china a bubble in 2007 ej said no. now 2 rys later ej says yes... but your record is way better than ejs' so i'm all ears. longer still you say?



schiff's lost 70% of his clients' money. who cares what he says.



right on the trend? he got his ass handed to him in 2008 when the dollar rallied. don't you think guys like me who bought gold at $270 here at itulip in 2001 and were talked out of selling it for 8 yrs will do better than schiff's sorry clients?



who do you trust to tell you when it's time to sell gold?



sounds good to me!

For your answer, I will use this graph. What's important in my opinion to realize is that there won't be a bull-market in gold and bear-market in Chinese shares at the same time, because of the relationship between these things. I won't rule out a bull-market in Chinese shares without gold, but I can rule out a bull-market in gold, without Chinese shares following.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLD#chart2:symbol=gld;range=5y;compare=0 00001.ss;indicator=sma(200)+ke_it+volume;charttype =line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source =undefined

At the start of the bubble (a response to Chinas revaluation that started around that date): Jul 11 2005 ticker gld was 42,05, the shanghai was 1026. At the low point of the correction now gld was 75,5 the shanghai 1706.

At this low point late last year, the Shanghai was not a bubble, but a bargain to anyone having hopes for gold, and gold was not in a bubble valuation level. The increase in the Shanghai between these dates just reflect the increase in gold between these dates, and should therefore not be seen as a bubble, the shanghai is at the same price at these two dates, even there is 3,5 years apart.

Now gld is at 93, and the shanghai at 3047, while the shanghai was fair late last year, now it's around 30 % overvalued in comparison to gold, if I use these trends. I guess the period from late 2008, to now, is the next leg on the bull-market in gold, and even Chinese shares. It won't suprise me if Chinese shares could peak out somewhere around 10-12000, that would mean that the weakening dollar goes on as the US economy get recover, and that the trend of stronger RMB and a bubble in Chinese shares also goes on. If Gold was to go to 2700 dollars, and Chinese shares would maintain a similar level of overvaluation to gold as during the peak of the bubble in 07, it would indicate the Shanghai peaking at 20800, even I think that is unlikely. However, 10-12000 won't suprise me, that would signal a rise from the low point in 2008 to peak, similar to the rise from 2005. Let's say 2000 dollar gold, and Chinese shares at 10-12000 in 2011

here are some first class things that are on this trend, these things are good because they pick up the inflation to the fullest, it's probably bubbles, but it's so easy to see it's the same forces that's driving china that's driving anything else around the emerging world (wind related company, and fertilizer):
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JST#chart8:symbol=jst;range=my;compare=p ot;indicator=sma(200)+ke_it+volume;charttype=line; crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undef ined


I third thing, China was in a "sleep mode" until the revaluation started in 2005, while other emerging market's was already hyped up. That makes the move in China from 2000-2007 look more spectacular than in India, even it's all about the same trend, at even same valuation's at the peak, even the Rise in China was so much more steep.

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Won't happen his kids only speak Manderin (sp)

Back in 2007, I was all hyped up myself, trying to learn mandarin. Nothing wrong with that There is a audio course, pimsleur mandarin, that I was messing with on my own, whenever I was alone in my car, driving. Excellent way to learn.

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Here are another comparison. In my opinion gold vs these stocks is just a question of running with some extra leverage to the trend.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G...urce=undefined

[touchring]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

The Chinese love to gamble, but gambling is illegal in mainland China.

So why not gamble on a hot stock market..??..;

http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/casinos.html

it's not suppose to end up this way, the chinese government has started to reverse the loans that got into equity markets.. we'll be seeing the effects.

[touchring]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Back in 2007, I was all hyped up myself, trying to learn mandarin. Nothing wrong with that There is a audio course, pimsleur mandarin, that I was messing with on my own, whenever I was alone in my car, driving. Excellent way to learn.

Have you learnt about the Chinese ghost month when the gates of hell opens? It starts in 3 days.