new piece by Andy Xie on China...

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

It's brilliant, yes. And this technological revolution he suspect would boost the dollar could be related to alternative energy.


First Solar, could be the new "microsoft". Buying first now, could be like buying microsoft in the early 90-s.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=S...urce=undefined

I like the chart a lot. Let's say they grow around 20 times, in real terms then in year 201X, they would be worth around as much as microsoft in 2000. Certainly possible, anything is.

[metalman]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

It's brilliant, yes. And this technological revolution he suspect would boost the dollar could be related to alternative energy.

it revolution boosted the dollar? thought the analysis was retarded... now i am sure of it.

First Solar, could be the new "microsoft". Buying first now, could be like buying microsoft in the early 90-s.

haaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

bwahhhhaaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

[LargoWinch]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Faber is following electricity consumption to assess China's economy and it has been in decline for several months now as opposed to the "rosy" figures from the Chinese gov't.

[santafe2]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

haaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

bwahhhhaaaaa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

I've noted over the last couple of years that FSLR is one of the few solar companies in which I'd consider investing, (not today for any lurkers who might take this as a recommendation). I was trying to find a more politically correct way of saying the above, but you're right, it's complete nonsense.

FSLR will likely do well over the next few years but it's no 100 bagger. From here - five maybe and I'd be happy if it doubles and gets back to its 2008 peak.

[metalman]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

I've noted over the last couple of years that FSLR is one of the few solar companies in which I'd consider investing, (not today for any lurkers who might take this as a recommendation). I was trying to find a more politically correct way of saying the above, but you're right, it's complete nonsense.

FSLR will likely do well over the next few years but it's no 100 bagger. From here - five maybe and I'd be happy if it doubles and gets back to its 2008 peak.

seriously... what did ms do?

created a virtual monopoly for a product that you not only have to buy to work... to communicate with other people... but forces you to buy it again and again (upgrade) to keep dong the same... with zero cost of goods? and creating infinite barriers to entry in the bargain?

how is FSLR even remotely similar?

retarded.

ps... too old for pc.

[santafe2]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

how is FSLR even remotely similar?

It isn't. To stay with the analogy, FSLR is the best punch card reader on the planet.

[metalman]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

It isn't. To stay with the analogy, FSLR is the best punch card reader on the planet.

so... what is scalable in alt energy? scarce... w/barriers to entry? etc?

[touchring]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Faber is following electricity consumption to assess China's economy and it has been in decline for several months now as opposed to the "rosy" figures from the Chinese gov't.

Manufacturing will consume a lot of power, but not construction.

[metalman]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Manufacturing will consume a lot of power, but not construction.

faber is very smart... 'Power output, a close proxy for economic growth, is not reported at all, but power capacity is. Wait, are these output data apples or capacity data oranges?'

[santafe2]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

so... what is scalable in alt energy? scarce... w/barriers to entry? etc?

It's still in the lab. As EJ pointed out a year or so ago, it's coming but it's not soon. It's important to realize that we're still forming the renewable energy business. Until we can supply energy at 1 cent per kWh, we're most likely nothing more than a foot note in history. It's coming and I hope it's coming from my industry but until we can produce energy at about that cost, we're stuck at a cross road. Humanity needs cheaper energy to move forward. Until we can work this out we've a serious problem.

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

The good thing about First is that their technology have a lower cost and provides higher profit margins than what any other maker in the industry have.
Anyway, all of these companies depend on government subsidies, and that's the driving force. First seems to depend of German government subsidies and produce all they can. But these subsidies could soon spread worldwide (the clunkers for cash program being the latest germany import when it comes to ideas related to reducing emissions). If there is a pressure on the silicone and other materials, that's when firsts technology really shine. The numbers some of these companies put out in 2007 was just spectacular. I think Solar are very cyclical, and could most certainly blow up again. Last year, before the earnings got hit, many of the Chinese solar companies was trading at PEG ratios of less than 0,1, thats exceptional. I also think it's important to get that this is about reducing emissions, not necessary about energy efficiency, solar stocks did not took off with the oil bubble. On the contrary solar peaked before the US economy hit a recession in nov 2007. Right now, it's like these stocks are a little on hold, ready to bubble up again, when the economy recovers.

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

I compared graphs from wells fargo, with the 90-s, and the dollar, using that data, the dollar should hit a low in around 2013, is things were to repeat like the early 90-s.

[Munger]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

I compared graphs from wells fargo, with the 90-s, and the dollar, using that data, the dollar should hit a low in around 2013, is things were to repeat like the early 90-s.

Strong, undeniable analysis; similarities between charts never lie. I similarly compared the graphs of Motorola from 1988-1993 with Enron from 1995-2000. Is things were to repeat like the early 90s it tell me Enron 2000 going through the roof.

[nero3]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

Strong, undeniable analysis; similarities between charts never lie. I similarly compared the graphs of Motorola from 1988-1993 with Enron from 1995-2000. Is things were to repeat like the early 90s it tell me Enron 2000 going through the roof.

History rhythms. And it often comes through in charts.

I don't believe in technical analysis, but it's possible to read the fundamentals through charts, not only numbers, and find similar era's just through using charts, and without any knowledge about what the chart is showing at all.

[touchring]

Re: new piece by Andy Xie on China...

faber is very smart... 'Power output, a close proxy for economic growth, is not reported at all, but power capacity is. Wait, are these output data apples or capacity data oranges?'

Some googling will help.

http://www.reuters.com/article/compa...mbol=600900.SS

HONG KONG, July 9 (Reuters) - Power output by Huaneng Power (0902.HK) (HNP.N), China's biggest power provider, fell 5.84 percent in the first half of 2009 from a year earlier, on the back of weakening power demand amid the global economic downturn, the company said on Thursday.
Huaneng Power (600011.SS) produced 86.107 billion kilowatt hours in the first half of the year, it said in a statement.
New generating units put into operation continuously led to the decline in the average utilisation hours of power generation in most of the regions where it operates, the firm said.
But the declines in China's power generation have been narrowing in the past several months after near double-digit falls late last year, as consumption gradually picked up, thanks to Beijing's economic stimulus policies.
Yangtze Electric Power Co (600900.SS), operator of the country's largest hydropower project, the Three Gorges Dam, said on Wednesday its power output in the first half of the year edged up 0.7 percent from a year earlier. [ID:nSHA86473]. (Reporting by Sui-Lee Wee; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)