Govt Data Revision Shows US Economy Fell More In 2008

[D-Mack]

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. economy last year fell more than the government first thought.

But it was a little stronger in the 80 years since the Great Depression.

...

A more relevant revision regards the latest recession, which, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, began in December 2007. The BEA revisions show that from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008, GDP dropped by 1.9% at an annual rate. A previous estimate had GDP falling 0.8% in that period.

A big part of GDP is consumer spending. From the end of 2007 to the end of 2008, spending by Americans fell 1.8% instead of the previously estimated 1.5% drop. Business spending fell more and companies shed a bigger quantity of inventories.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, GDP slipped by 5.4%, less than the 6.2% previously estimated. But the revisions also say GDP was weaker in the second-quarter of 2008 than earlier thought, growing 1.5% instead of 2.8%.

..

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...31-710520.html

Should I be surprised?

[don]

Re: Govt Data Revision Shows US Economy Fell More In 2008

Just think if it was proven that all the government statistics were 100% true.

Our collective pants would fall down.

Make for a good Marx Brothers updated film.

[D-Mack]

Re: Govt Data Revision Shows US Economy Fell More In 2008

U.S. Recession Worst Since Great Depression, Revised Data Show
Share | Email | Print | A A A


By Bob Willis

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the report said, indicating the worst slump since the Great Depression.

Updated statistics also showed that Americans earned more over the last 10 years and socked away a larger share of that cash in savings. The report signals the process of repairing tattered balance sheets following the biggest drop in household wealth on record may be further along than anticipated.

“The current downturn beginning in 2008 is more pronounced,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press briefing this week. The revisions were in line with past experience in which initial figures tended to underestimate the severity of contractions during their early stages, he said.

...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNivTjr852TI

What are they talking about?

[cjppjc]

Re: Govt Data Revision Shows US Economy Fell More In 2008

U.S. Recession Worst Since Great Depression, Revised Data Show
Share | Email | Print | A A A


By Bob Willis

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The first 12 months of the U.S. recession saw the economy shrink more than twice as much as previously estimated, reflecting even bigger declines in consumer spending and housing, revised figures showed.

The world’s largest economy contracted 1.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the last three months of 2008, compared with the 0.8 percent drop previously on the books, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Gross domestic product has shrunk 3.9 percent in the past year, the report said, indicating the worst slump since the Great Depression.

Updated statistics also showed that Americans earned more over the last 10 years and socked away a larger share of that cash in savings. The report signals the process of repairing tattered balance sheets following the biggest drop in household wealth on record may be further along than anticipated.

“The current downturn beginning in 2008 is more pronounced,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, said in a press briefing this week. The revisions were in line with past experience in which initial figures tended to underestimate the severity of contractions during their early stages, he said.

...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNivTjr852TI

What are they talking about?

They're talking about the way "savings" is calculated. Debt repayment is counted as savings.

[D-Mack]

Re: Govt Data Revision Shows US Economy Fell More In 2008

They're talking about the way "savings" is calculated. Debt repayment is counted as savings.

But didn't the savings rate just recently turn positive, not during the last 10 years

[cjppjc]

Re: Govt Data Revision Shows US Economy Fell More In 2008

But didn't the savings rate just recently turn positive, not during the last 10 years

Debt repayment / consumption


Bart?