Where the HELL is the inflation?

[Mega]

Am waiting for this "Tidal wave" of inflation?

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Am waiting for this "Tidal wave" of inflation?

Mike

Check the Thames Barrier...I think it's holding it back...

[Mega]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Yep
But all this money IS on balance sheets, its not "Out there".
Mike

[sunskyfan]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

It takes REAL money to buy something REAL. It takes a REAL buyer to make inflation.

[metalman]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Am waiting for this "Tidal wave" of inflation?

Mike

the prediction around these parts is late 2009 or early 2010.

[don]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Local Anecdotal (aren't they all):

EJ warns of food pricing inflation. At the nicest supermarket in this 100,000 burg it's gone like this.

First re-packaging from the manufacturers was evident throughout the store. Cereal boxes lost a few unannounced ounces.

Then, 3-4 months ago, across the board sales. The aisle shelves were festooned with sale tags- real ones- with a buck or two off 4 or 5 dollar items. Basic foodstuffs, premium items, everything.

We then saw all of the crazy bubble sh*t fire-sale'd- margarita mixers half off.

Next was the narrowing of choices. Premium items fell from a choice of 5-6 to usually one. Short shelf life items sustained the heaviest losses. Cheeses that do not keep, and were the higher end products, disappeared.

Then the sales dropped off precipitously. Far fewer sales tags and the amounts were piddling. 10 cents off a 5 dollar item. Sale coupons were for junk foods only.

We had been seeing work force attrition from the beginning. Now the deli wasn't stocked until late morning, rather than at 7AM. More than once I thought its darkened, empty cases meant closure. Same with the fresh fish display.

The last thing to go is the bakery. A major feature of the store, its ovens are now cold. Everything has been centralized elsewhere. No more calls of Bread's Ready. Stale bread is no longer unheard of.

This supermarket is a small chain of about a dozen stores. If its closed one day soon we won't be surprised. It seemed to be following iTulip's projections to a tee. Warehouse sell off, sharp local competition, survival mode....

Hey, that's Americanski Ville!

:eek:

[Mega]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

I see Oil/Gold/Silver/Stocks/Rates..........ANYTHING FALLING.
Mike

[metalman]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

I see Oil/Gold/Silver/Stocks/Rates..........ANYTHING FALLING.
Mike

today at least...

[Kadriana]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Local Anecdotal (aren't they all):

EJ warns of food pricing inflation. At the nicest supermarket in this 100,000 burg it's gone like this.

First re-packaging from the manufacturers was evident throughout the store. Cereal boxes lost a few unannounced ounces.

Then, 3-4 months ago, across the board sales. The aisle shelves were festooned with sale tags- real ones- with a buck or two off 4 or 5 dollar items. Basic foodstuffs, premium items, everything.

We then saw all of the crazy bubble sh*t fire-sale'd- margarita mixers half off.

Next was the narrowing of choices. Premium items fell from a choice of 5-6 to usually one. Short shelf life items sustained the heaviest losses. Cheeses that do not keep, and were the higher end products, disappeared.

Then the sales dropped off precipitously. Far fewer sales tags and the amounts were piddling. 10 cents off a 5 dollar item. Sale coupons were for junk foods only.

We had been seeing work force attrition from the beginning. Now the deli wasn't stocked until late morning, rather than at 7AM. More than once I thought its darkened, empty cases meant closure. Same with the fresh fish display.

The last thing to go is the bakery. A major feature of the store, its ovens are now cold. Everything has been centralized elsewhere. No more calls of Bread's Ready. Stale bread is no longer unheard of.

This supermarket is a small chain of about a dozen stores. If its closed one day soon we won't be surprised. It seemed to be following iTulip's projections to a tee. Warehouse sell off, sharp local competition, survival mode....

Hey, that's Americanski Ville!

:eek:

I've noticed coffee has gone up a lot. I stocked up on it while it was on sale and the coupons were still half-way decent. Now it's almost twice what I paid for it for a smaller container.

[flintlock]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Our grocery bill has actually gone way down. But that's only because my wife is a coupon wizard. Can't help but think anyone who doesn't use coupons now is paying way too much. Don't get in line behind my wife because you are going to be there a while.

[metalman]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

Am waiting for this "Tidal wave" of inflation?

Mike

ej's latest puts a final nail in the deflationists' coffin...

The action in the commodity and stock markets are not enough to convince the deflation spiral worriers to give it up, we recommend they take a look at food prices.

During the first 18 months of The Great Depression, food prices declined by 11%. Over the entire 45-month period of economic contraction, food prices fell an astonishing 45%.

This time around, in the first 18 months of the FIRE Economy Depression, food prices increased 4%.

[lalla]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

I see food inflation for sure. But please please please , someone tell me about rents, won't they go up in inflation? I need to figure this out because I am stuck with a house. If rents go up then my rental unit will help with the heavy mortgage.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

I see food inflation for sure. But please please please , someone tell me about rents, won't they go up in inflation? I need to figure this out because I am stuck with a house. If rents go up then my rental unit will help with the heavy mortgage.

I don't know what will happen or when, but here is a comment by David Rosenberg from his probably widely distributed week-day Breakfast With Dave.

• In fact, when you think about it, unless these units [those depicted in graph below] are either totally unlivable or in the most unpalatable areas of the country, why do we need any new building of homes or apartments for the next several years? Of the 130.8 million housing units in the United States, 18.7 million of them are vacant. With net household formation running barely above 800,000 annually, there is actually more than 20 years supply of real estate units on the market right now. In a word, we call that a "glut".

I take it that if Rosenberg's data are correct, and if there is anything substantive to supply and demand arguments, then rents should not be inflating anytime soon.

[thedanimal]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

I see food inflation for sure. But please please please , someone tell me about rents, won't they go up in inflation? I need to figure this out because I am stuck with a house. If rents go up then my rental unit will help with the heavy mortgage.

Anecdotal evidence in Chicago: I just negotiated my rent down in my lease negotiations. A glut of for rent signs in the neighborhood and no one biting.

[don]

Re: Where the HELL is the inflation?

I've lived on a single family house street for the last 8 years. Never saw a For Rent sign in a front yard until now. There's four up and down the block, some have been out for months. There's move-in deals all over town. Stagnant or falling rents may be a more important inflation brake than falling house prices. It will help to offset food and energy inflation. Home buyers will be a shrinking minority.