Bank of Canada: The "Recession" is over!

[GRG55]

Re: Bank of Canada: The "Recession" is over!

We have a resource based economy. We're going to do fine....

I think I said much the same, with some caveats, in my first post on this thread...

...All I can say is I am glad I live in Western Canada. When the inflationary poom inevitably becomes so visible even the blind can see it [and yes, it will be a "big surprise" to Carney, Flaherty, and the MSM] at least the core resource industries around here [what's left of them] will be able to pass on their price increases to consumers. Until Ottawa mandates price controls that is...

...The fundamentals of the Canadian economy are sound .. 30M people in the 2nd largest nation on the planet sharing a border with the richest nation on the planet. Seriously, how it is that we ever went into a recession I do not know.

I think our biggest problem is we get lazy because we are so damn lucky.

We got into recession because that "richest" nation next door got into a recession. Regardless of how much we might wish to reduce our dependence on the USA and trade more with Europe [a favourite of the Quebec Liberals] or with Asia [popular refrain in some quarters of the West] the fact remains that the USA is, and will remain, our biggest market. And without a strong economy in the USA there's no possible way there will be a strong economy in Canada.

And yes I agree that we are lucky to be Canadians. With any luck we can muddle through while the USA finds its way...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Bank of Canada: The "Recession" is over!

I think we'll have a slight double dip. Hopefully only slight. I really don't relish the idea of another deep recession. I'm more hopeful than optimistic though.

Muddy forecast, but that's a start.

1oz of Au that the S&P500 is lower in terms of Crude Oil in 36 months (real terms)? Seems like a sure loser right? After all, recession is over.

Or perhaps blaze, you may want to watch this and reconsider? ;)

[metalman]

Re: Bank of Canada: The "Recession" is over!

Some years ago I read his biography "The Mind of Wall Street". In it he wrote about the post-Nasdaq bubble contraction in consumption, the potential for a rise in the USA savings rate, and concluded that the USA was headed for a depression [that's the word he used]. However, just like EJ he never anticipated the Fed would re-flate using residential housing as the new "object of desire". He thought the depression started with the 2001 recession.

I have often wondered what did people, like you, who discovered iTulip in the 1990's do when EJ decided that his work was done and the site went dark early this decade? I have no idea what I would do if this site went dark today...

glad i'm not the only guy here who remembers that... from itulip's about page march 2006...

Fast forward to March 2006. The NASDAQ has mostly stayed in the dumper, with various dot com stinkers sinking and disappearing into the history books, again, predictably. The DJIA, by a combination of a re-constitution of the easily manipulated 30 stock index -- throwing out some losers and adding in some winners -- and inflation has fought its way back to where it was six years ago – flat. Except that, adjusted for inflation, it is down at about 20%. But that hasn't kept Cramer from returning to CNBC to rant and throw chairs around while touting the latest "can't lose" stocks. Not coincidentally, gold has gone up, as we forecast in 2001 when gold was trading near 20 year lows and widely derided as a loser investment class. But what really kept the U.S. out of poorhouse, if only until now, was the housing bubble. But not only did we fail to predict the housing bubble in 2001 as the Fed's answer to the stock market bubble collapse, we argued that the Fed would never allow one to develop.

Wrong.

Our thinking was that in the past the Fed has been very quick to stop speculation in real estate, much more quickly than stock market speculation. Why? Real estate involves the banking system much more than the stock market bubble did and looking after the banking system is Job One for the Fed. Letting millions of homeowners buy real estate they can't afford with mortgages they can never pay back is a surefire road to mass defaults that can cripple the banking system.

remember how much shit they caught for that when they reopened?

geez, now everyone knows that!

and now...
It's logical ... the handful of economists who were intelligent and educated enough to predict the GFC are the only people qualified to predict the next 2-5 years ...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Bank of Canada: The "Recession" is over!

remember how much shit they caught for that when they reopened?

Whoa. cool stuff alert.