Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

[charliebrown]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

i'm glad you're here nero, we need a different voice, but I dont see how house prices are going to get any traction with the job market in the dumper. U3 here is 9.5? and u6 which has full time workers working part time. is north of 16% I think there used to be a u7 which is full time good job now working full time crappy job. That number is no longer published. I've read unofficial numbers for u7 at 18%

I think the u6 and u7 numbers have lots more room to run. There are millions of very smart asians and eastern europeans who are willing to assume high paying manufacturing and knowledge jobs at a fraction of u.s. wages.

With wages trending down, who is going to buy, or rent houses? We also have the demographic shift of the boomers trading down to smaller retirment ranch houses, townhomes, condo's etc and leaving there larger homes.

[nero3]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

i'm glad you're here nero, we need a different voice, but I dont see how house prices are going to get any traction with the job market in the dumper. U3 here is 9.5? and u6 which has full time workers working part time. is north of 16% I think there used to be a u7 which is full time good job now working full time crappy job. That number is no longer published. I've read unofficial numbers for u7 at 18%

I think the u6 and u7 numbers have lots more room to run. There are millions of very smart asians and eastern europeans who are willing to assume high paying manufacturing and knowledge jobs at a fraction of u.s. wages.

With wages trending down, who is going to buy, or rent houses? We also have the demographic shift of the boomers trading down to smaller retirment ranch houses, townhomes, condo's etc and leaving there larger homes.

Americans are fat, lazy, out of shape, and to many of course are old. Not just in the US, but generally in the west. The currencies are strong still. Maybe this trend will not be over before the inflation numbers are more like in third world countries. Maybe hard assets is the way to go. However at some point it will turn, as most people are mostly wrong, maybe it is already now, even it does not look like it. I also think Lehman gave this crisis something extra, without them, I doubt it would have been so spectacular, and without bear sterns it would had been boring. That made all the doom sayers look smart. But they could not possibly know how poor the FED would handle the crisis, I am almost sure Greenspan would had handled it better, especially in his early days. That just shows the amount of luck some had in their forecasting. Had this been like the in 75, the worst should really had been over, around when oil prices peaked, however, Lehman just gave it that extra element.

[unlucky]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

I also think Lehman gave this crisis something extra, without them, I doubt it would have been so spectacular, and without bear sterns it would had been boring. That made all the doom sayers look smart.

Hey, look on the bright side. At least we managed to kill two of the blood-sucking vampire squids before the rest turned on us and forced us to cave in!

[nero3]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

I don't know. One of the most funny notions lately, is the sentiment that the shanghai index is a bubble. Of course it is !

But the thing is. Nobody knows how far it can go. It could be a superbubble like the Nikkei, that still had 15 years to go, when it was at levels where the shanghai is now. It can go to the peak in 2007, and then again increase from 6000 to 35000.

However, it is not many market's that you have an IPO of the largest homebuilder, then having the stock price tripling in one day. It's not what's typical of a bear market rally! The way many view China is to skeptical. By US standards leverage is still extremely low and an asset bubble could have a long way to go.

I think the Chinese market have qualities that set it apart from most Latin American and other emerging market's. The boom in Chinese shares, come more as a stronger currency, in a sense create a low inflation environment and good environment for stocks in China, in what otherwise will be a high inflation world. That was how Japan boomed in the seventies to.

[SuitablyIronic]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

Americans are fat, lazy, out of shape, and to many of course are old.

Nothing like a good generalization.

[nero3]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

Nothing like a good generalization.

That's true. I just love to do it

Anyway, one pattern is visible: Asian crisis 1997-1998, then the dotcom bubble. Then the Bust in the Asian economies in 2007-2008 and a bubble in treasuries.

A very remote possibility is that the US treasury bond will suffer the same fate as the dotcom bubble, translating into a 3 year long, rather steep decline. (thus making around dec 2008 the same as march 2000)

[metalman]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

Americans are fat, lazy, out of shape, and to many of course are old. Not just in the US, but generally in the west. The currencies are strong still. Maybe this trend will not be over before the inflation numbers are more like in third world countries. Maybe hard assets is the way to go. However at some point it will turn, as most people are mostly wrong, maybe it is already now, even it does not look like it. I also think Lehman gave this crisis something extra, without them, I doubt it would have been so spectacular, and without bear sterns it would had been boring. That made all the doom sayers look smart. But they could not possibly know how poor the FED would handle the crisis, I am almost sure Greenspan would had handled it better, especially in his early days. That just shows the amount of luck some had in their forecasting. Had this been like the in 75, the worst should really had been over, around when oil prices peaked, however, Lehman just gave it that extra element.

your average norwegian posting frequently on itulip is retarded and has a dick smaller than a baby carrot.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

your average norwegian posting frequently on itulip is retarded and has a dick smaller than a baby carrot.

Do you want to tell us just exactly how you know that?

[metalman]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

Do you want to tell us just exactly how you know that?

i use the same careful methodology as others here to determine the weight and intelligence of the average american.

[cjppjc]

I kept thinking of Nero

NPR had a nice little 5 minute or so piece on Norway this morning. Talked about how the banks that had been burnt before, were much more conservative this time around. The fact that Norway has growth. How there was a nice hunk of state oil money people wanted a taste of. Maybe tax cuts. One official spoke of the need of more people to go to work. I think he said 11% of the population is permanently disabled.:eek:

No mention of skyrocketing chocolate prices, so obviously not a complete piece.:cool:

[nero3]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

your average norwegian posting frequently on itulip is retarded and has a dick smaller than a baby carrot.

I'd say this discussion is really progressing. Anything else you want to add while you are at it?

[nero3]

Re: I kept thinking of Nero

NPR had a nice little 5 minute or so piece on Norway this morning. Talked about how the banks that had been burnt before, were much more conservative this time around. The fact that Norway has growth. How there was a nice hunk of state oil money people wanted a taste of. Maybe tax cuts. One official spoke of the need of more people to go to work. I think he said 11% of the population is permanently disabled.:eek:

No mention of skyrocketing chocolate prices, so obviously not a complete piece.:cool:

The growth comes from the money printing in the US that just throws to money at us, through their reckless hunger for oil, and the fact that we not have a large population. I think we are ranked the 3 in the world now, in money per person, only beaten by Quater and Luxenburg. Here even the poorest washing lady makes 50000 dollars a year before taxes (I guess someone like that maybe would pay 32-35 % in tax, however there is a lot to deduct. I guess it can only go downhill from here on. It have to. I am thinking Norway maybe have 5-10 good years left, until the good times are over for good. It's not really good times, cause business and everything is not really booming, things were much better in the 1990-s, or in the 1960-s in terms of business. But not in terms of petrodollars.

[goadam1]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

I'd say this discussion is really progressing. Anything else you want to add while you are at it?

I like your hat.

[flintlock]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

I like your hat.

OK, now I know where I've seen him before.

[nero3]

Re: Dow tops 9000 as home sales rise

OK, now I know where I've seen him before.

Anyway, in case none of you watch TV. It's not me in the avatar. Sorry to disappoint.