Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

[Mega]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31951620
Mike

[cjppjc]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

Nero: What are your feelings on the 91 time period?

[nero3]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

Nero: What are your feelings on the 91 time period?

Well, I suspect Cramer is right in the sense that it might be what he best can relate it to, but I think you have to assume this is more of a secular bear market, and cyclical bull, back then it was a secular bull. Like in Norway, this is nothing like 1991. In 1991 real estate prices had been falling for 4 straight years, while now they are already back at the peak levels from 2007. (from 1950-1986 the only year of decline was 1975)

I do think Solar stocks now does compare to software stocks in 1991. Even stocks such as well fargo is very similar, the difference I think is that it is now poised to go flat (unless there is a boom with declining long term interest rates), something I find unlikely (to get there the fed have to seriously raise interest rates, perhaps as in 1949, and kill inflation. While Solar stocks, might move something similar to oil service stocks in the late seventies, perhaps even turbocharged.

Two things that are quite similar are mid 1988 for US equities, and this time for emerging market growth stocks. stocks like railroad follow the emerging market trend, BNI now, is like Coca Cola in mid 1988 (the similarity is so great that I don't think it is an accident Buffet bought Coca Cola then, and Rails now) (had buffet been a real visionary he could have bought Coca Cola in 1981, and Rails in 2000, however it appears that it is his style to move into 5-6 year old secular bull-markets). However, emerging market's also compare well, to around april 1975, the same does oil service stocks, even US equities. So my pick from my knowledge is 1975. However. there is also a great similarity to 1938 . Both of these dates is in a reasonable distance from the peak of the stock market bubbles. In general I think, moneyprinting will lift stocks, until the yields on 10 year bonds hit around 6 %, then stagflation set in.

[Munger]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31951620
Mike

Cramer is the man.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Lenny Dykstra's Financial Career
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Joke of the Day

[cjppjc]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

Well, I suspect Cramer is right in the sense that it might be what he best can relate it to, but I think you have to assume this is more of a secular bear market, and cyclical bull, back then it was a secular bull. Like in Norway, this is nothing like 1991. In 1991 real estate prices had been falling for 4 straight years, while now they are already back at the peak levels from 2007. (from 1950-1986 the only year of decline was 1975)

I do think Solar stocks now does compare to software stocks in 1991. Even stocks such as well fargo is very similar, the difference I think is that it is now poised to go flat (unless there is a boom with declining long term interest rates), something I find unlikely. While Solar stocks, might move something similar to oil service stocks in the late seventies, perhaps even turbocharged.

Two things that are quite similar are mid 1988 for US equities, and this time for emerging market growth stocks. stocks like railroad follow the emerging market trend, BNI now, is like Coca Cola in mid 1988 (the similarity is so great that I don't think it is an accident Buffet bought Coca Cola then, and Rails now). However, emerging market's also compare well, to around april 1975, the same does oil service stocks, even US equities. So my pick from my knowledge is 1975. However. there is also a great similarity to 1938 . Both of these dates is in a reasonable distance from the peak of the stock market bubbles. In general I think, moneyprinting will lift stocks, until the yields on 10 year bonds hit around 6 %, then stagflation set in.

Thanks. One thing you never lack for is an opinion. ;) Good luck with your trading.

[cjppjc]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

Cramer is the man.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Lenny Dykstra's Financial Career
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Joke of the Day

Munger: That was too good. "Not only is he sophisticated. He's one of the great ones in this business. He's one of the great ones" :p

[WildspitzE]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

HAHAHAHAHAHA

man, between the kfc thing and this video, you guys have made me laugh today.

[nero3]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

It is not difficult to find secular bull-market's

Here I have compared 3 stocks, and their run since 2000, to Coca Cola from 1980-1988 (as we know that was almost halfway in the bull run)..

It's Coca Cola in the eighties (after this graph Coca cola increased around 16 times), plus one for rails, one for Wind power, and one for fertilizer now.

[goadam1]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

It is not difficult to find secular bull-market's

Here I have compared 3 stocks, and their run since 2000, to Coca Cola from 1980-1988 (as we know that was almost halfway in the bull run)..

It's Coca Cola in the eighties (after this graph Coca cola increased around 16 times), plus one for rails, one for Wind power, and one for fertilizer now.

How do you buy stock in a tech that doesn't exist yet? You are talking about buying a pieces in a company in a secodary market. This would be the time to have money in vc looking for the next thing. So far alt energy has done nothing but followed the general market.

[nero3]

Re: Cramer..........its over the Bears are wrong

I think solar and alternative energy might be like tech was in around 1990. It's not like you have to go to emerging market's. There is first solar, and a ton of other companies noted on the US exchanges.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=M...urce=undefined