The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

[radon]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

http://www.unmuseum.org/moonhoax.htm

[santafe2]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

I agree the climate change is used as a political tool to implement new government controls and new tax schemes. Even if you believe in man made global warming you need to look at how much impact changing Co2 output would have on the world.

Looking at the Waxman-Markey Climate Bill that is now being considered by Congress, CO2 emissions from the U.S. in the year 2050 are proposed to be 83% less than they were in 2005. In 2005, U.S. emissions were about 6,000 million metric tons (mmt), so 83% below that would be 1,020 million metric tons or a reduction of 4,980mmtCO2. 4,980 divided by 1,767,250 = 0.0028ºC per year. In other words, even if the entire United States reduced its carbon dioxide emissions by 83% below current levels, it would only amount to a reduction of global warming of less than three-thousandths of a ºC per year. A number that is scientifically meaningless.

See http://www.worldclimatereport.com/in...ming/#more-376

The idea is that we reverse trend and not test the world at 1,000PPM in less than 100 years. You're focused on the math which is a fine exercise but your takeaway is incorrect. If we can stop CO2 growth we will have succeeded. I doubt we will, but if we do, success. Extrapolate your equation and you might be able to predict if we survive another 500 years.

[jeremyr]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

The idea is that we reverse trend and not test the world at 1,000PPM in less than 100 years. You're focused on the math which is a fine exercise but your takeaway is incorrect. If we can stop CO2 growth we will have succeeded. I doubt we will, but if we do, success. Extrapolate your equation and you might be able to predict if we survive another 500 years.

I think my point is still valid, if the US reduces it CO2 output by 83% and the effect is to reduce the world wide temperature increase over 100 years by 0.28ºC or 1.4ºC over 500 years. That seems like a complete waste of effort.

[c1ue]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

The idea is that we reverse trend and not test the world at 1,000PPM in less than 100 years. You're focused on the math which is a fine exercise but your takeaway is incorrect. If we can stop CO2 growth we will have succeeded. I doubt we will, but if we do, success. Extrapolate your equation and you might be able to predict if we survive another 500 years.

As I noted before - the vast majority of future CO2 emissions is coming from the developing world.

If truly we in the US are serious about 'fixing CO2', then the proceeds from said carbon taxes would be sent offshore to these developing nations to reduce their CO2 production.

I don't see that happening. Ever.

So again we devolve into what is more likely - an excuse to reap revenue based on an unproven thesis.

No Thank You.

[santafe2]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

As I noted before - the vast majority of future CO2 emissions is coming from the developing world.

If truly we in the US are serious about 'fixing CO2', then the proceeds from said carbon taxes would be sent offshore to these developing nations to reduce their CO2 production.

I don't see that happening. Ever.

All you need to do is ask and it's done...

China is expected to raise its 2020 solar power generation target more than fivefold to at least 10 GW. With incentives, analysts expect over 2 GW in new solar capacity will be installed as early as 2011, up from just over 100 MW in 2008.

While it's not happening the way you'd suggested, apparently we are sending enough money to China the old fashioned way that they're beginning to clean up their act.

To help put this in context, the US will install 1-1.5GW of solar in 2011. It's interesting that everyone, (including myself), was predicting the US to be the largest solar market in the world by 2011 but it may never happen if China sticks to its goals.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...12570920090721

[sunskyfan]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

Global warming and capitalism do have something in common. It is a battle for who is allowed to create the most hot air .

[WildspitzE]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

Global warming and capitalism do have something in common. It is a battle for who is allowed to create the most hot air .

As opposed to socialism, where a select few have a monopoly over it.

[radon]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

As I noted before - the vast majority of future CO2 emissions is coming from the developing world.

If truly we in the US are serious about 'fixing CO2', then the proceeds from said carbon taxes would be sent offshore to these developing nations to reduce their CO2 production.

This would be completely ineffective for a variety of reasons. Foremost in my mind is the endemic corruption that exacerbates the countries economic problems and contributes to their continued 3rd world status.

China has trillions of dollars already, yet they can't spare a few moments to get factories to stop poisoning the water and ground. They can't force manufactures and power companies to put in a few scrubbers because it would raise their unit cost, and nothing else matters.

They should care, environmental damage caused by pollution will hurt the poor disproportionately, and become a source of social unrest in the future.

So again we devolve into what is more likely - an excuse to reap revenue based on an unproven thesis.

Its failure will likely be because it is ineffective toward its intended purpose not because there is a growing mountain of evidence that AGW is real.

[sunskyfan]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

You have hit the nail on the head. A select few cannot create enough hot air to effect things but 7 billion can. Capitalism depends on a linear economy and informed free market to work. We now have a non-linear economy ripe with ignorance. We must adjust and come up with something new or the non-linearities amplifying the ignorance will destroy both the economy and the environment.

[jnick2000]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

F*ck New York City. The new capital of the newly-proclaimed Eastern Kingdom of the Two Carolinas will be Charleston. All surrounding states will be made subservient under a feudal system. Charleston will become the most powerful city in the Western Hemisphere. We can take care of all of California's financial problems with a missile targeted to hit San Francisco. HAHAHAHA!

I lived in the Carolinas the people there are to stupid to survive.

[Starving Steve]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

All you need to do is ask and it's done...

While it's not happening the way you'd suggested, apparently we are sending enough money to China the old fashioned way that they're beginning to clean up their act.

To help put this in context, the US will install 1-1.5GW of solar in 2011. It's interesting that everyone, (including myself), was predicting the US to be the largest solar market in the world by 2011 but it may never happen if China sticks to its goals.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...12570920090721

I see what California is using a vast amount of solar energy for: installing solar-powered radar along its highways to either count cars or monitor car speeds or to watch traffic. This monitoring or supervision might be great in controlling civil-disorder or to spot terrorists. Or this monitoring just might catch speeders or other law-breakers.

Solar-powered monitoring stations are every quarter-of-a-mile on the way to San Jose along both sides of U.S. Hwy 101. Each station is powered by about one square metre of California sunshine.

I see very little coming out of solar power except for trouble from government and a rather wasteful expense for everyone.

[flintlock]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

I lived in the Carolinas the people there are to stupid to survive.

Or "too" stupid even.

[c1ue]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

Its failure will likely be because it is ineffective toward its intended purpose not because there is a growing mountain of evidence that AGW is real.

I keep hearing mountain of evidence - I keep seeing anecdotes about coral reefs dying and what not.

I'm STILL waiting for the smoking gun of AGW.

Oh, and yet more 'peer reviewed' papers:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/200...JD011637.shtml

Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

J. D. McLean
Applied Science Consultants, Croydon, Victoria, Australia
C. R. de Freitas
School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
R. M. Carter
Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958−2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Niño−Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.

Received 16 December 2008; accepted 14 May 2009; published 23 July 2009.
Citation: McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009), Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.

Hmm, this paper says the Southern Oscillation is responsible for the majority of global tropospheric temperature changes.

That doesn't sound like CO2.

Or perhaps you'd like to attack the Journal of Geophysical Research as a climate denying organization started in 1896?

[WildspitzE]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

You have hit the nail on the head. A select few cannot create enough hot air to effect things but 7 billion can. Capitalism depends on a linear economy and informed free market to work. We now have a non-linear economy ripe with ignorance. We must adjust and come up with something new or the non-linearities amplifying the ignorance will destroy both the economy and the environment.

I think you carried your analogy a little too far, because none of what you just said makes any sense. However, what is clear is that you believe that you or those that are like-minded to you are sentient enough, not to go into moral authority, to decide what is best for each person on earth. Kudos!

[radon]

Re: The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'

I keep hearing mountain of evidence - I keep seeing anecdotes about coral reefs dying and what not.

You speak as if nobody has heard of the southern oscillation before. Those "peer reviewed" papers you keep linking to are either rubbish or misrepresented. Cherry picking scientific studies and telling us what you think they mean is hardly persuasive, and does not invalidate AGW.

It is funny you mischaracterize all the data presented by a dozen organizations as anecdotal. Is this more sophist nonsense? I'll bet you don't believe in the moon landing either. No amount of evidence will satisfy you, why do you pretend otherwise?