Why the bears are wrong

[metalman]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Oh yes I can.

don't mind nero... his bullish/bearish call de jour is geared for boys' club trading type sites. he forgets we have women here... thinks he's on motley fool... we think ej put him here to amuse us just like vancouvergoingup.

[snakela]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

I'll sum up here:



Falling Libor rate/ Improving credit conditions / new bubble in place (alternative energy, emerging market's) (the new bubble in place is what Rosenberg miss) (it is possible to have a non US consumer driven bubble).

This is what CNBC/Cramer have been saying for a while. That we are back to the FIRE economy as usual. Its hard to argue with it when that kind of optimism creates 200 point moves like yesterday based on one analyst outlook for GS (if that was infact the reason).

If Alt-E does become a the next bubble, I don't think it can start until the end of the 4th quarter or so. A relative of mine works as a civil servant for the army corps of engineers and they got lots of money for those shovel-ready infrastructure projects you heard about. Anyway, he said the contracting laws ensure the process takes so long that they wont have any of their contracts awarded until September at least. So even if the 1st round of stimulus kicks it off it won't show up on any bottom lines until a quarter later. DoE acquisition laws may be different but they can't be THAT much more effecient than the DoD.

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

This is what CNBC/Cramer have been saying for a while. That we are back to the FIRE economy as usual. Its hard to argue with it when that kind of optimism creates 200 point moves like yesterday based on one analyst outlook for GS (if that was infact the reason).

If Alt-E does become a the next bubble, I don't think it can start until the end of the 4th quarter or so. A relative of mine works as a civil servant for the army corps of engineers and they got lots of money for those shovel-ready infrastructure projects you heard about. Anyway, he said the contracting laws ensure the process takes so long that they wont have any of their contracts awarded until September at least. So even if the 1st round of stimulus kicks it off it won't show up on any bottom lines until a quarter later. DoE acquisition laws may be different but they can't be THAT much more effecient than the DoD.

If it will show up growth around the 4 quarter to 1 quarter next year, it means the market's should go up now.

[snakela]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

If it will show up growth around the 4 quarter to 1 quarter next year, it means the market's should go up now.

Shouldn't that mean it would have gone up when announced? Nobody will know who is and is not getting a contract until september so winners and losers can't be sifted until then. But based on expectations the market should have gone up when announced - so its already "baked in".

Whats driving it now? Anticipation of a 2nd stimulus? I've read it mentioned a few times now like its a fore-gone conclusion. So I wonder if that chatter is being released from insiders that know its already being planned.

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

I think it's the improvements in credit market's and a shift from deflationary view, to a sluggish inflationary boom that cause a re-pricing of risk. It's like in 2003, plus some extra stimulus, and some extra money printing. I think the fed have the market's in their control. If they need to they will do more QE, if it's needed there will be more stimulus packages. The main thing I think, is that the federal reserve again have control over the market. I also suspect that the current administration will go at it, so that the economy gains serious momentum (with high inflationary risks).

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

no can do... they got no embed doodah.

metalman, don't tell me your doodah magic's fadin'? :p

allow me to try:

...

abracadoodah!

...






@Raz, to embed simply:

a) see that "H2O" molecule next to the book at the bottom of the bar? click on it.

b) menu comes up. using your doodah's magic simply click the embed tab

c) copy and paste the code in the body of the message in iTulip.

Optional: act like the King of the Internets because you can copy/paste ;)

[metalman]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

ok, i suck. good job.

[cjppjc]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Here is one incredibly good money manager who doesn't think we iTulipers are crazy.
Keep in mind that his horizon is three+ years - and he's not bullish on the stock market.

http://greenlightadvisor.com/glablog...bert-rodriguez


BTW, how on earth do you get a video to embed?
I can't do it no matter what I try!:mad:

Great video. I was unable to see the other one of him posted elsewhere. Thanks Raz. Very simple and to the point.

[Raz]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

LargoWinch wrote:

Raz, to embed simply:

a) see that "H2O" molecule next to the book at the bottom of the bar? click on it.

b) menu comes up. using your doodah's magic simply click the embed tab

c) copy and paste the code in the body of the message in iTulip.

Optional: act like the King of the Internets because you can copy/paste ;)


I did this exactly - three times - and it wouldn't work for me.

Must be like playing Poker: to get good cards you have to hold your mouth just right. :rolleyes:

I must have a software problem. Thanks for succeeding, Largo.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Good short term call nero. Looks like the market wants to keep on going up. Probably for the reasons you mention.

Some people say this is a last attempt to breach S&P 950 and may fail. I don't know. But I never argue with the market. For the time being I am reversing myself and going long today.

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

I think you will be happy with your choice, but there is no way of knowing. I believe in US railroad stocks. Stocks like BNI. traffic is down around 25 % since the peak in activity in 2006. It's holding up well, because it's an inflation hedge, but yet, if shipping activity goes back to the 2006 level, or even more, because there is a long term trend of increasing rail traffic, I espect the stock to do very well, and be higher than today, no matter where the oil price is.

[Raz]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Congratulations, Nero - great short-term call. (And possibly Intermediate call.)

Pay close attention to the chart levels and patterns laid out in this report.

[nero3]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Congratulations, Nero - great short-term call. (And possibly Intermediate call.)

Pay close attention to the chart levels and patterns laid out in this report.

Some companies are making waves. Like this: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=M...l=MTL;range=5y

It's a Russian steel / coal company I like. The first wave was from jan 20- feb 10, This recent wave went from march 11 to june 1, then, now, I think there is even a new even bigger wave on the way, that possibly will take the stock to around 20-22.

The spread between the libor and the 3m discount rate is now 33 bps. According to Greenspan the normal is 25 bps. So market's are quite stable now.

[phirang]

Re: Why the bears are wrong

Mechel? You kidding me?

Pick up some NSU if you've got the cohenes