Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

    July 10, 2009
    As Ireland’s Boom Ends, Job Seekers Revive a Well-Worn Path to New York

    By KIRK SEMPLE
    He came to the United States in 1996 to paint houses and work in construction. Like many of his fellow Irishmen, he returned home soon after to ride the Celtic Tiger, the economic boom that turned his once-struggling country into one of Europe’s great success stories and allowed him to start a construction company.

    But now Niall, 34, is nursing a midday beer in an Irish pub in the Bronx, out of work and hoping to find any job at all.

    “I’ll do anything,” he says, “from shoeing a horse to capping a chimney.”
    The Irish, it appears, are coming to America again. Niall, who asked that his last name not be published because he intended to work illegally, is part of a fresh surge of immigrants who in recent months have fled Ireland as it suffered a sudden economic reversal. They have traveled here in search of employment, like generations of Irish before them and, in some cases, like their own younger selves.

    Many have been making their way to the Bronx and Queens neighborhoods that became popular with the Irish who arrived in the last big wave of immigration, in the 1980s and ’90s, before Ireland’s prosperity slowed the influx and drew many home.

    “I couldn’t sit around any longer doing nothing,” said Niall, just nine days off the plane from Dublin. In spite of rising unemployment in the United States, he and other newcomers say the job market here seems rosy compared with the meager offerings in Ireland, where the jobless rate has soared to nearly 12 percent. “It still seems that if you push yourself enough,” he said, “then you will find something.”

    It is impossible to know the size of the latest Irish migration because many of the immigrants, like Niall, are arriving on tourist visas and planning to stay and work illegally.

    Why, the dirty Micks, acting like Mexicans... And what of the Poles that invaded the Emerald Isle, driving the buses and the ferries. Back to kielbasi and black bread in the eastern plains, I've heard....Ah, the speed of capital compared to the speed of labor- like the rabbit and the hare, without the turtle's tricks....I guess we'll have to wait and see. Another pint here at the end of the bar.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/ny...seekers&st=cse

  • #2
    Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

    Originally posted by don View Post
    July 10, 2009
    As Ireland’s Boom Ends, Job Seekers Revive a Well-Worn Path to New York

    He came to the United States in 1996 to paint houses and work in construction. Like many of his fellow Irishmen, he returned home soon after to ride the Celtic Tiger, the economic boom that turned his once-struggling country into one of Europe’s great success stories and allowed him to start a construction company.
    (he groans) the Celtic tiger should be called the Celtic Blimp, it was built on nothing, no industrial base, no real competitive advantage, geographical or otherwise, it was funded on cheap credit to prime and pump a property bubble, a low corporate tax base and cash incentives to attract US multinationals and a unwavering belief from Irish politicians and civil servant bureaucrats in the religion of globalisation, as the US economy collapses and consumer demand decreases, multinationals are pulling out and leaving a shell of indigenous industry (virtually none) to offer employment opportunities, a contraction of Credit as the banks imploded has left many households grasping for air - the eastern European workers who came to work in mainly service industry jobs are quickly deserting the sinking ship as the service industry is also ravaged, gas is quickly escaping from the Blimp leaving nothing but a pile of crinkled plastic and the occupants screaming as it plummets to the ground.

    I suppose this story is repeated elsewhere but its severity depends imo on how much the country in question bought into the globalisation thesis of open economies and developing service / financial / knowledge based industry at the expense of indigenous productive industry.
    "that each simple substance has relations which express all the others"

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

      I'm familiar with Woodlawn in the Bronx. It's a nice neighborhood. There was a reverse migration back to Ireland in the last few years. It looks like it's going to pick up some population.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

        "the Celtic tiger should be called the Celtic Blimp, it was built on nothing"

        Like the tech bubble, there was a real story of opportunity, which then got blown out of proportion to a crazy degree.

        Ireland had favourable demographics, low taxes, lots of tax breaks for companies that relocated there, a relatively cheap English-speaking workforce etc, which enticed some tech companies to set up shop there. They also benefited in a big way from EU adjustment funds after they joined the EU.

        This initial (genuine) success story combined with extremely low interest rates then started off a mad housing boom and construction bubble, which provided lots of jobs and created a lot pf phantom wealth.

        Now, of course, it all unravels. The fall will likely be as dramatic as the rise.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

          Originally posted by thousandmilemargin View Post



          Ireland had favourable demographics, low taxes, lots of tax breaks for companies that relocated there, a relatively cheap English-speaking workforce etc, which enticed some tech companies to set up shop there. They also benefited in a big way from EU adjustment funds after they joined the EU.
          Many of the same "advantages" can be found in Latvia, Estonia and other Eastern European states which are also undergoing the same dramatic implosion, and for much the same reasons, with no real underlying foundation to fall back on, the fall may well be a long one.
          "that each simple substance has relations which express all the others"

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

            I have been contemplating this issue for the last day or so. I was watching Pierre Gave talk about China, when he said prospects for growth in china where very bright, but that Japan was a minor economic side show due to demographics. Japan has an old and shrinking population.

            This is a quote from wikipedia:
            In 2008, Ireland had the highest birth rate (18.1 per 1,000), lowest death rate (6.1 per 1,000) and highest net-migration rate (14.1 per 1,000) in the entire European Union - and the largest population growth rate (4.4%) in the 27-member bloc as a result

            A friend of mine who recently visited Dublin told me that taking the bus there was a strange experience because he felt like he was surrounded by kids.

            If one where to use the logic of population on global economic growth you could make some rough predictions about which regions would do well and which poorly in the next 20 or 30 years.

            So, knowing diddly squat about economics or in fact about anything at all, I will rank countries by potential:

            At the bottom:
            Russia, Japan, Lithuania, and Ukraine.

            next:
            Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan. I have a special word for this region I call it “China”.

            Next of Global’s list of depressed markets:
            Europe, Canada, Australia (same link)

            Where is America in this list? Glad you asked. America is still growing by virtue of heavy immigration from Latin America. In a sense Latinos have agreed to support our economy by causing a brain drain in their own countries. Without those new arrivals the country would be shrinking. This is my big think: This is a mobile work force, and they will go away! They will leave. Uncle Sam is getting grouchy and there are more opportunities at home or in another country.

            take a look at this map
            In general the blue areas will go down and everything else will take off.

            Several things jump out at me just eyeballing it:
            Your mouth is going to get all puckered up like you just sucked on a lemon, but just follow me here.

            Most of the orange/red/purple countries are places you never heard of. Let’s take a tour:

            Greenland: upper middle. Like Denmark without the Danes

            Mongolia: Upper right. Mongolia? Never mind

            Look at Africa. The entire thing looks like it has been in a fight. If you are looking for a place to put your money look no further.

            Latin America: see above discussion. This place will take off oil or not. The only part I am not so sure of is Brazil. Although it is true that the fertility rate is down, it still has a very young population and a booming economy.

            One more item: extreme upper right is North Korea. Growing fast and likely to be eaten by the south or vise-versa. think about it....
            Last edited by globaleconomicollaps; July 12, 2009, 01:44 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

              Originally posted by globaleconomicollaps View Post
              take a look at this map
              In general the blue areas will go down and everything else will take off.
              Do you mean this map (your link seems to have gotten mangled) shown at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate
              Last edited by ThePythonicCow; July 12, 2009, 01:42 AM.
              Most folks are good; a few aren't.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                this is the one

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                  North Korea?

                  I'd disagree completely on that one.

                  If I were a South Korean, I'd be looking to get my family dual citizenship and expatriate as soon as possible to avoid a dramatic reduction in quality of life and standard of living.

                  North Korea's downfall is not an IF, but a WHEN.

                  The still incomplete and incredibly expensive reunification of Germany is a simple exercise compared with the financial horrors of reunifying Korea.

                  My capital will not be going anywhere near Korea.......I believe it could become a financial black hole, potentially for decades.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                    Originally posted by globaleconomicollaps View Post
                    Why go to a version of this map that is apparently 10 years old, rather than the current one linked to from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate ?
                    Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                      Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
                      Why go to a version of this map that is apparently 10 years old, rather than the current one linked to from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate ?
                      check. yours is better.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                        Originally posted by globaleconomicollaps View Post
                        check. yours is better.
                        ok - good - cool.
                        Most folks are good; a few aren't.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                          "If one where to use the logic of population on global economic growth you could make some rough predictions about which regions would do well and which poorly in the next 20 or 30 years."

                          You have to look at the "smarts" of the various countries also, just producing babies will not cut it.

                          Note that Sweden is one of the only four countries in the world where the PMI went positive in June. The other being China, India, & Turkey. Swedish demographics are not that great.

                          Uz is great at producing babies, but they are mostly all exported as cheap labor to places like the RF. How smart is that?
                          Justice is the cornerstone of the world

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                            "Many of the same "advantages" can be found in Latvia, Estonia and other Eastern European states which are also undergoing the same dramatic implosion"

                            One of my wife's friends' husband just came back to Latvia from Ireland where he has been living on unemployment compensation for a while now, no new job in sight there apparently. He is planning on keeping his Irish unemployment compensation while working "unofficially" in Latvia, will be interesting to see how long he can manage to do that.
                            Justice is the cornerstone of the world

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Seen the Celtic Tiger lately?

                              On a Celtic Cultural Note:

                              The Emperors of Bombast

                              By EAMONN McCANN
                              Shuffling out from U2’s Popmart tour — the one with the McDonalds-style Golden Arch — at Lansdowne Road 10 years ago, I chanced on Philip King, singer, songwriter, television producer and music adviser to the Irish Arts Council.

                              “Whaddya think?”

                              “Whatever it is,” pronounced the elfin Kerry sage, “it’s a ******* big one of them.”

                              Which has always been the way with the emperors of bombast. Now they, or at least their stage sets, are bigger than ever. Biggest ever seen, the PR propaganda assures me. As if that were a measure of musical stature.

                              The tour kicked off in Barcelona on June 30 to gasps of ecstatic approval, most breathlessly from Irish commentators flown out for the occasion, many of whom apparently believe that saying a bad word about Bono might render them liable for prosecution under the Republic’s new Blasphemy Law.

                              The Belfast Telegraph reported that, according to the environmental monitoring group carbonfootprint.com, the 18-month, 100 gig tour will involve the band travelling 70,000 miles in their private jet, the 390-tonne set following on cargo planes.

                              The volume of CO2 spewed out in the process would be enough to transport U2 34,125 million miles to Mars and back. (Of course, the damage would be cut by half if they were just flown to Mars and left there.)

                              This odyssey of environmental obliteration — how many endangered species will have been rendered extinct by the time Bono croons a final chorus? I despair for the panda — follows Bono’s dreamy pronouncement last year that: “My prayer is that we become better in looking after our planet.”

                              We should be used by now to the clanging contradictions of U2. It’s been noted here before that Bono’s castigation of the Irish Government for directing too small a proportion of its tax receipts to aid for the developing world was swiftly followed by the band transferring its business operation to the Netherlands to avoid paying tax to the Irish Government.

                              Now Larry Mullen has noticed “a new resentment of rich people in this country ... We have experienced [a situation] where coming in and out of the country at certain times is made more difficult than it should be — not only for us, but for a lot of wealthy people ... The better-off (are) being sort of humiliated.”

                              So it isn’t the people writhing on trolleys in hospital corridors because wards have been closed on account of the economy or children learning arithmetic from the relative speed of rats scuttling across the classroom as a result of the education budget being slashed to bail out the bankers who are being humiliated in Ireland but....the better off.

                              The little drummer boy’s distress at the rich being reduced to tears by hard-faced officialdom was aroused by seeing billionaire tax-exile property developer Dermot Desmond being dissed at Dublin airport. “If this is what (the rich) experience, how can I fly the Irish flag and tell people ‘come to Ireland because it's great? ’... All those rich guys with all those balls [?], all those women that you see organising this and organising that, without them we'd be in a very, very different state.”

                              Perhaps Larry was angry that peasants arriving on no-frills airlines hadn’t formed a human carpet on the tarmac for people like himself and Dermot Desmond to walk over.

                              Larry has been particularly saddened by the plight of his pal Ronan Ryan, whose Dublin nosherie, the Town Bar and Grill, has hit hard times on account of fewer people being able to afford the prices. “He got eaten alive,” mourned Larry. By ravenous hordes of enraged proletarians, possibly.

                              Another cook, a Jay Bourk, is threatening to shut up shop if the Government doesn’t use tax-payers’ money to subsidise the rent of his Temple Bar eaterie. “It's my favourite restaurant,” laments Larry. “I'll be broken-hearted if that goes down.”

                              Broken-hearted? That’s what you feel when somebody you love leaves you, Larry. Or dies. But I suppose when your bubble-brained tendency towards emotional incontinence is daily indulged by the crass acolytes who surround you, you lose perspective on such matters.

                              And anyway, if the diner means so much to you, why not give Mr. Bourk the money yourself.

                              U2? Pat Boone (ask your granny) was more rock and roll.
                              In a special treat for Irish fans, the band’s Croke Park stint at the end of this month will open with a minute’s hushed silence followed by an inspirational incantation from Bono: “Blessed are the rich, for they shall enter the kingdom of heaven.”

                              Followed by, I can exclusively reveal, a guest appearance by Sir Bob Geldof with his new raggle-taggle novelty number: “It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a poor man to enter the kingdom of God.”

                              Yep. More than ever, it’s all arsy-versy with the musical wing of global capitalism these days

                              U2 now have their heads inserted so far up their anterior orifices it’s doubtful they’ll ever succeed in uncorking themselves. Does it not occur to them that the reason there might be a new resentment of the rich on this island is that we have just seen the mass of the people ripped off, homes lost, jobs destroyed, wages slashed, to save the sin-crinkled skin of the hoodlums who have run the economy into ruin? I suppose not.

                              Then there’s Geldof. Kruger Crowe Celebrity Management is currently marketing his services as an “inspirational speaker” on poverty in Africa and other topics at $80,000 a gig. This may be a special offer: the south Dublin ego-warrior last year charged $100,000 for a talk on alleviating poverty to an organisation called Diversity@Work in Melbourne. Would it not have been better if he’d sent them a postcard suggesting the money be spent instead on, say, alleviating poverty?

                              Not better for Bob Geldof, I suppose.

                              The fee included payment for a bodyguard, luxury hotel suite and first-class travel.

                              Can anyone think of a single individual on the planet who has benefited more than Sir Geldof from Live Aid?

                              Come the revolution into rationality, U2 and Geldof will be recognised as national embarrassments.

                              Not yet, sadly. Many thousands, it seems, fully intend to congregate with trusting innocence at Croke Park later this month. And good luck to them. Each to her own, say I.

                              But what’s this? Who are these folk assembled outside Cool Discs in Foyle Street where the buses for Croke Park leave, shouldering pitchforks and scythes, muttering? Whatever can it mean?

                              Eamonn McCann is a troublemaker and can be reached at Eamonderry@aol.com

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X