Finster's FDI Index pointing deflation ??

[metalman]

Re: Finster's FDI Index pointing deflation ??

this is the strange thing about virtual communities. who is Finster? Where did he go? I hope he and his are well.

over the years, folks come and go. some depart for months or years and later come back again. others never return. just like in real life!

first bart 'took time off' then finster. they are missed. hope they return soon.

[goadam1]

Re: Finster's FDI Index pointing deflation ??

over the years, folks come and go. some depart for months or years and later come back again. others never return. just like in real life!

first bart 'took time off' then finster. they are missed. hope they return soon.

Finster's post are one of the best parts of Itulip. Plus, some of his replies to my questions were given with a lot of thought, care and intelligence; all of which is more than I can say for some "real" people I know.

[Jay]

Re: Finster's FDI Index pointing deflation ??

Most everything from Finster and Bart are well thought out and worth a read. I read them first along with EJ's stuff. I just don't understand half of what Bart writes.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Finster's FDI Index pointing deflation ??

Here are a couple of sightings from pundits on deflation or lack of inflation.

From David Rosenberg's daily report 11/13/09

DEFLATION, NOT INFLATION
There is no doubt that the government is massively reflating and there is little doubt that after socializing the private sector debt morass, the Fed is going to monetize the blow-up in the public sector balance sheet. But reflation will not turn into outright inflation until both the savings rate and unemployment rate both peak out and roll over on a sustained basis. The article on page A7 of the WSJ, in case you missed it, is a must-must read (). There can be no inflation if wages (not to mention rents and credit) are deflating.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125798515916944341.html for "Returning Workers Face Steep Pay Cuts" referenced by Rosenberg.

From John Hussman 11/15/09 http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc091116.htm

Hussman also discusses a new round of "predictable second wave of defaluts."

In my view, deeper loan losses are ahead, and if we deal with the next round the same way that we dealt with the last, we will ultimately succeed in debasing the U.S. dollar. There's little inflationary pressure at present, and chances are that fresh credit concerns will create enough demand for government liabilities to forestall inflationary pressures for several years more. But we cannot reimburse the losses of irresponsible lenders with trillions freshly issued government liabilities without those liabilities ultimately eroding in value. The probable real, after inflation return on stocks and bonds over the coming decade is likely to be very unsatisfactory.
.
.
While I do expect that we will observe longer-term inflation problems beginning several years out, the problem with negative real yields on TIPS is that in the event that inflation does not present itself near-term, TIPS holders are forced to accept negative current returns as the price of longer-term inflation protection.

[emphasis JN]